Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 23, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Some are asking, why should even care about Darya Dugina's assassination? Because:

1. It is almost certainly the FSB false flag operation
2. Most likely, it will be used as a pretext for strikes that had been already pre-scheduled for the Ukrainian Independence Day this Thursday
Once again. Strikes later this week are highly likely, they have must been prescheduled long ago. Most probably, on Thursday-Friday. It's quite probable that Putin wants to scale up and sacrificed Dugina to needs justify future strikes as counter-terrorist action or sth like that
Assuming this is true, why was Dugina chosen as a sacrificial lamb? Presidential plenipotentiary Schegolev's speech on her funerals gives some idea:

1. Alexander (and Darya) Dugina were nobody in the Russian system of power
2. But the West believed they were somebody

AMAZING Image
If Putin planned a false flag operation to get a pretext for escalation, than Darya made a better sacrificial lamb than Alexander. *Exactly* because she is young woman. Her death would trigger more outrage. Legions of pornocephals gonna flood the internet with pro-Russian content Image
Alexander Dugin is playing exactly this game:

"We need only the Victory. My daughter put her maiden's life on its altar"

Indeed, theme of sacrifice is very common for Dugin. He was obsessed with the idea of ritual sacrifice for the greater good. Constantly thinking about it Image
Some hints on Dugin's views on the sacrifice. He's quoting a Jung's argument that for the sake of ritual, the sacrificer and the sacrificed, must be one.

academia.edu/28552964/НООМА… Image
Dugin about the ritual sacrifices in his textbook for college students "Ethnosociology"

4pt.su/ru/content/этн… Image
For some reason other pro-war activists also tend to use the language of ritual sacrifice to describe what happened. Consider Prilepin. This pro-war writer used to be a member of the National Bolshevik Party with all its death worshipping esotericism

iz.ru/1383782/2022-0… Image
If it was the FSB false flag operation (which is almost certain), than it was most likely Darya and not Alexander who was the real target. If Alexander knew it all beforehand, I won't be much surprised. See him on Darya's funerals Image
The FSB false flag attack probably aimed to trigger exactly this type of reaction from the Western useful idiots. Preparing to launch massive strikes later this week, Russia needs to present its actions as "retaliatory". That's the most likely reason for them killing Darya Dugina
Putin, Parliament, key propagandists are trying to elevate previously virtually unknown Darya to the key martyr of the state cult:

"One country, one President, one Victory"

declares MP Slutsky on her funerals. Russia is kinda starting resembling a bad Third Reich cosplay
In Russian conditions nobody would speak against a new Horst Wessel campaign. But some gonna keep silence. What is interesting, neither Shoygu, nor Ramzan Kadyrov did not express any condolescences, threats or warnings regarding Darya's death. Just silence Image
To sum up. Most likely:

1. FSB killed Darya
2. as a pretext for escalation pre-planned for the end of this week
3. Why now? August 24, Ukrainian Independence Day. August 25, the Russian parliament session. Some expect significant changes in policy to be announced there. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets
Jun 18
Hard to swallow pill

Global politics are usually framed in terms of kindergarten discourse (“good guys” vs “bad guys”) with an implication that you must provide “good guys” with boundless and unconditional support

BUT

Unconditional support is extremely corrupting, and turns the best of the best into the really nasty guys, and relatively fast
Part of the reason is that neither “bad” nor “good” guys are in fact homogenous, and present a spectrum of opinions and personalities. Which means that all of your designated “good guys” include a fair share of really, really nasty guys, almost by definition.

Purely good movements do not really exist
That is a major reason why limitless, unconditional, unquestioning support causes such a profound corrupting effect upon the very best movement. First, because that movement is not all
that purely good as you imagine (neither movement is),
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14
On Trump's birthday

Let's have a look at these four guys. Everything about them seems to be different. Religion. Ideology. Political regime. And yet, there is a common denominator uniting all:

Xi - 71 years old
Putin - 72 years old
Trump - 79 years old
Khamenei - 86 years old Image
Irrespectively of their political, ideological, religious and whatever differences, Russia, China, the United States, Iran are all governed by the old. Whatever regime, whatever government they have, it is the septuagenarians and octogenarians who have the final saying in it.
This fact is more consequential than it seems. To explain why, let me introduce the following idea:

Every society is a multiracial society, for every generation is a new race

Although we tend to imagine them as cohesive, all these countries are multigenerational -> multiracial
Read 7 tweets
Jun 7
In 1927, when Trotsky was being expelled from the Boslhevik Party, the atmosphere was very and very heated. One cavalry commander met Stalin at the stairs and threatened to cut off his ears. He even pretended he is unsheathing he sabre to proceed

Stalin shut up and said nothing
Like obviously, everyone around could see Stalin is super angry. But he still said nothing and did nothing

Which brings us to an important point:

Nobody becomes powerful accidentally
If Joseph Stalin seized the absolute control over the Communist Party, and the Soviet Union, the most plausible explanation is that Joseph Stalin is exercising some extremely rare virtues, that almost nobody on the planet Earth is capable of

Highly virtuous man, almost to the impossible level
Read 7 tweets
Jun 1
Growing up in Russia in the 1990s, I used to put America on a pedestal. It was not so much a conscious decision, as the admission of an objective fact of reality. It was the country of future, the country thinking about the future, and marching into the future. Image
And nothing reflected this better than the seething hatred it got from Russia, a country stuck in the past, whose imagination was fully preoccupied with the injuries of yesterday, and the phantasies of terrible revenge, usually in the form of nuclear strike. Image
Which, of course, projected weakness rather than strength

We will make a huuuuuuge bomb, and drop it onto your heads, and turn you into the radioactive dust, and you will die in agony, and we will be laughing and clapping our hands

An old man yelling at clouds Image
Read 9 tweets

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