Europe is having a 500 year drought. bbc.com/news/world-eur…

This may result in us seeing warnings from our ancestors long ago, in a particular manifestation of cultural transmission that has always amazed me. #BLUEPRINTbook 1/
In #BLUEPRINTbook (amazon.com/Blueprint-Evol…), I talk about very old warnings regarding low-water marks in European rivers. For instance, the Elbe is dotted with “hunger stones” commemorating old droughts, with inscriptions like IF YOU SEE ME, WEEP, going back 500 years. 2/
These hunger stones written on rocks deep in rivers by our ancestors -- both to commemorate their own suffering and to warn us -- are sure to be visible again given conditions in Europe today. There is so little water. 3/
The transmission of warnings, via myths or inscriptions, regarding major natural disasters (such as droughts or pandemics!) that occur much less frequently than a single lifespan is a very important aspect of "cumulative culture" that is distinctively possible in our species. 4/
Another example: the northeast coast of Japan is dotted with "tsunami stones," which are large flat rocks, some 10 feet tall, with inscribed warnings about where to build villages so as to avoid tsunamis that can kill tens of thousands of people. 5/
In Aneyoshi village in Japan, a stone was erected a century ago with the warning DO NOT BUILD YOUR HOMES BELOW THIS POINT! When a tsunami struck in 2011, killing 29,000 people, the water stopped just 100 meters below the stone, having totally destroyed everything in its path. 6/
The people in all eleven households built above the marker placed by their ancestors 100 year ago: they all survived. They learned from others long since dead. amazon.com/Blueprint-Evol… #BLUEPRINTbook 7/
Regarding the tsunami stone inter-generational warnings, see also: smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/cen… 8/
The transmission of warnings about pandemics that occur beyond memory of a single lifespan is also part of "cumulative culture."

As noted in #ApollosArrow (amazon.com/Apollos-Arrow-…), our ancestors tried to tell us, in literature and religion, about the awful threat of plague. 9/
Here is the very opening act of one of the oldest works of literature we have, The Iliad, from more than 3,000 years ago. Our ancestors feared plagues, and they tried to tell us about them. #ApollosArrow 10/

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More from @NAChristakis

Aug 15
Serious epidemics, like COVID19, affect mental health – both in short and intermediate terms. Let’s talk about this. 1/
Some initial analyses of the COVID19 epidemic suggested that mental health impact might not be as bad as many had feared. Indeed, in early days of the pandemic, people were surprised to not see a stark rise in suicide (though other mental health indicators did show problems). 2/
One study journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117… concluded that psychological distress increased early in the COVID-19 pandemic but that most facets returned to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2020, and that there were notable signs of resilience in life satisfaction, loneliness, and suicide. 3/
Read 28 tweets
Aug 6
A systematic study of a complete sample of 20 shipwrecks (that involved >19 people stranded for >2 months) out of >9,000 wrecks between 1500AD and 1900AD reveals crucial factors in social order relevant to survival. amazon.com/Blueprint-Evol… #BLUEPRINTbook ImageImage
Crucial factors in surviving shipwrecks in the period 1500-1900AD?

No alcohol in the salvage.
Ability to make a bellows.

But, most important:
Ability to cooperate.
Ability to teach each other things.
And mild hierarchy.

#BLUEPRINTbook
In 1864, two ships wrecked on opposite ends of Auckland Island, near Antarctica -- in a riveting natural experiment. The Grafton crew survived, even thrived, and the Invercauld crew fell upon itself (nearly all died). Learn why in #BLUEPRINTbook
Read 13 tweets
Jul 26
New work via @jepekar et al in @ScienceMagazine shows that there may have been two zoonotic leaps of SARS2 to humans in late 2019. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… 1/
SARS2 genomic diversity before Feb 2020 likely comprised two distinct viral lineages (A & B), probably a result of two separate transmissions to humans. The first likely involved lineage B around 18 Nov 2019 (23 Oct–8 Dec), and the second (of A) likely occurred soon after. 2/
In early work on the origins of the pandemic that we published in @Nature in April of 2020, we used phone data to track human movements through Wuhan and showed how the virus initially spread through China. nature.com/articles/s4158… 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 25
Omicron BA5 is the dominant variant of SARS2 in USA at the moment (although new COVID19 variants will surely soon appear and take its place). These variant waves are nicely visualized in UK data. We should prepare as a nation for this evolving landscape. Let's talk about this. 1/
The reasons for BA5's success (and for omicron's more generally) relate both to its intrinsically greater infectivity and its ability to re-infect previously infected or even vaccinated people. (See, eg, this article from Feb 2022 via @sigallab ): nature.com/articles/s4157… 2/
Nice and informative epidemiological data from the UK SIREN study help shed light on BA5's ability to reinfect people. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 23
Is it possible to easily identify people who wield influence within online or offline social networks, by virtue of how they are connected, without actually mapping networks? Do large-scale field experiments show how to use this to change behavior of whole populations? Yes! 1/
This week, our lab #HNL published new work in @PNASnews on “network targeting algorithms” to identify “structurally influential” people within social networks, in order to accelerate behavior change at scale.

We can artificially create tipping points.

pnas.org/doi/full/10.10… 2/
To change the behavior of whole populations, we take advantage of the “friendship paradox,” which is the mathematical fact that, on average, your friends have more friends than you do. 3/
Read 22 tweets
Jul 21
A comedy club [sic] is explicitly defining itself as a 'safe space' and cancels show by @DaveChappelle. Sheesh.

"The First Avenue team [has] worked hard to make our venues the safest spaces in the country, and we will continue with that mission." bbc.com/news/entertain…
“First Avenue can invite and disinvite whomever it wants, of course. But it's hard to see this move as anything other than cowardly and counterproductive.”
“Canceling the performance does not even accomplish the narrow goal of stopping @DaveChappelle from speaking. The performance was merely transferred to an alternative location—and all will be able to watch him there. If ever there was an example of virtue signaling, this is it.”
Read 4 tweets

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