Thread by @RichardBentall

I've been seeing a few posts today in which people are saying it will take many years for us to rejoin the EU and that the best we might achieve will be to return to the single market. I do not believe this is true, and here is why - a 🧵. 1/24

First, historical precedent. US Prohibition was introduced under spookily similar circumstances, made permanent by constitutional amendment, the US population split into 'wets' and 'drys', and everyone said it was permanent. And yet it took 13 years to reverse.

Why? 2/24

Prohibition was reversed because it was an abject failure. It didn't end because of opposition but because its supporters lost faith and/or influence. The same will be true of Brexit - the best argument against it was always going to be its implementation. 3/24

The Tories bet the farm on Brexit and yet they are in crisis. This crisis turns out to be entire of their own making - who knew that a sexually incontinent and drunk MP, or that sewage would turn out to be issues that would cripple them? 4/24

https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1560919558436831232?s=20&t=HXwUGcGjegI_58-Uy-IhIg

You could argue many of their self-inflicted wounds have nothing to do with Brexit (I'd say that's not true in as much as character and honesty were factors in the sexual misconduct, sewage, and Brexit) but it doesn't matter. If the Tories are wounded, Brexit is wounded. 5/24

At the same time, there is a palpable sense that the country has descended into a shithole since 2010 - nothing seems to work and the rising prices and stagnant wages, and blatant inequality are taking us into a winter of discontent. 6/24

https://twitter.com/The_TUC/status/1561667164578398208?s=20&t=HXwUGcGjegI_58-Uy-IhIg

Tories are saying this is nothing to do with Brexit, but fewer and fewer people believe them, mainly because they either have experienced or know someone who has experienced Brexit harms, like companies moving abroad, or queues at our borders....7/24

https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1559530710914023424?s=20&t=HXwUGcGjegI_58-Uy-IhIg

In any case, most voters don't think about causal relationships when it comes to evaluating policy. As this research shows, they just make a judgment (blind retrospection) about whether their lives have got better or worse since the policy was introduced) 8/24

And they are making up their minds.... 9/24

https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1559530710914023424?s=20&t=HXwUGcGjegI_58-Uy-IhIg

Other polling also indicates that people are beginning to change their minds about Brexit (which was never going to happen overnight). 10/24

With some amazing polling from Scotland..... 11/24

But, crucially, this is the age distribution of support for rejoining. Ask yourself, just on the basis of demographics alone, how much support there will be for rejoining in, say, 2030. 12/24

I've also been conducting my own research on the effects of Brexit identities. In my own data (paper under review), Remain identities are stronger than Leave identities, probably because leave IDs (like wet IDs in the US) are weakening. This is supported by polling. 13/24

So, I'd say we're right on track (and maybe ahead of) the path taken by the US in the years following Prohibition, which makes me think we will be able to rejoin in the early 2030s, unless..... 14/24

One thing that could prevent rejoining is the Tories making Brexit a success.

If you think they can, good luck with that. I just don't think this is possible on any rational analysis. In any case, the Tories are almost certainly going to do things that will make it worse. 15/24

I long ago posted a 🧵 on the Tory Party. TL:DR it now exists only as a brand name. It has been taken over and effectively destroyed by a bunch of UKIP English nationalists and other (frankly) nutters. 16/24

https://twitter.com/RichardBentall/status/1255094470141411328?s=20

Those who have influence in the Tories are either nutters (Truss) or afraid of the nutters. To try and make Brexit work, they need to forge a closer relationship with Europe but they're going to do the opposite by, e.g., undermining the NIP, making Brexit more disastrous. 17/24

So another question is: will the EU have us back? On this, it's necessary to make a judgment about our European friends. On the one hand, they certainly will have reason to be wary of us, and they're certainly going to want reassurance. 18/24

But, on the other hand, many EU politicians have made it clear that there is a space for us when we want to come back, it's in their economic interests to welcome us, and it's hard to imagine a bigger victory for Europeanism than our return. 19/24 lbc.co.uk/news/brexit-wa…

Finally, I want to say this. We shouldn't think about our return to the EU passively. Sitting on our arses and moaning doesn't get us very far. We can influence how quickly we return, but we do have to stand up and make the effort. 20/24

I have been using my psychological skills to play a small role in this (self-consciously drifting from political psychology to politicized psychology) and I've also become active in several campaign groups. 21/24 blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/202…

I'm also planning to come to the first National Rejoin March in London on September 10th - details here 22/24 marchforrejoin.co.uk

I am sure the march won't be as big as the enormous People's Vote marches in 2018 (shown here), but it is a start. We need to create momentum so that there will be bigger marches in the future. 23/24

Telling ourselves that we can't rejoin the EU - that it's too difficult, it will take too long, they won't want us back - is a mug's game.

For some time now I've been predicting we'll rejoin in the early 2030s. I have yet to see a reason to revise this prediction. 24/END

Oops meant to post this here....