Cal-23 #TTF prices have topped 250 €/MWh this week. Everyone agrees that’s crazy, but what does that mean?
Some have suggested to cap the price, i.e. set an administrative price cap on the European wholesale market for gas. What would happen then?
First, supply.
North-West European gas markets have been decoupled from the world market around April.
Russian supply does not respond to prices, Norwegian supply is running at full capacity, and so are LNG terminals. We are an island. And will remain one well into 2023.
Second, price formation.
This implies prices are currently set by demand. That means, prices rise until demand is reduced enough to match whatever supply is there.
Third, a price cap.
If you put a legal ceiling on the price for gas, demand will exceed supply. Any price cap must come along with additional policies that reduce demand accordingly. If that comes too late, we will be physically running out of gas like sooner or later.
Forth, no price cap.
What if reverse the order? *First* do the savings policy and *then* introduce the price cap? Here comes the magic: If you reduce consumption by the same amount that you need to do anyway, prices will fall automatically, without the need to introduce a cap.
Bottom line: If you introduce a gas price cap, you need to introduce savings policies. If you introduce those savings policies, the cap is obsolete. End
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Wir schließen in den kommenden Jahren eine atemberaubende Menge neuer Verbraucher in der Niederspannung an.
In den nächsten 20 Jahren rund 500 GW EVs, Wärmepumpen & Heimspeicher
Gut oder schlecht fürs Stromsystem? Kommt darauf an: ob wir die dumm oder intelligent betreiben.
Deshalb diese Studie.
Wir haben diese drei Technologien in typischer Ausgestaltung anhand von drei Tarifmodellen optimiert:
· Festpreis
· Halb-Flex (dynamischer Tarif, der stündliche Spotpreise widerspiegelt)
· Voll-Flex (dynamisch plus zeitvariable Netzentgelte)
Für private Haushalte besteht der Strompreis im Wesentlichen aus zwei Komponenten: Die Kosten der Energie ("Beschaffung") und Netzentgelte.
1) Energie-Kosten spiegel den Preis von Strom an der Börse wieder.
2) Netzentgelte leiten die Versorger an den Netzbetreiber weiter. Die Höhe und Struktur der Netzentgelte werden im Rahmen der staatlichen Regulierung durch die Bundesnetzagentur festgelegt.
It is my impression that behind all the fighting about CfDs, PPAs, peak shaving products and crisis intervention lies a fundamental disagreement:
What is the purpose of electricity markets? What is the objective that they serve?
Behind the statements of many senior policy makers seems the assumption that power markets are primarily social policy and should be designed to avoid energy poverty.
Or industrial policy, securing competitiveness of energy-intensive industry and keeping firms in Europe.
Or redistributive policy, where power markets should be designed to capture rents from firms that don’t deserve it.
Or monetary policy: power markets should help bring down headline inflation rates. (This one surprised me most.)
Eine verworrene Diskussion - es geht ja auch im komplexe System-Fragen: Netze, Speicher, Dunkelflaute, Infrastruktur, Lernkurven, Pfadabhängigkeit, etc.
Wenn man den ganzen Nebel mal zur Seite schiebt, ist es im Kern jedoch eigentlich ganz einfach:👇
Mit einer Wärmepumpe macht man aus einer kWh Strom rund 3 kWh nutzbare Wärme. Wenn man die gleiche kWh in einem Elektrolyseur zu Wasserstoff umwandelt und dann in einer Gastherme verbrennt, bekommt man nur 0.5 kWh Raumwärme.
Faktor 6 Unterschied!
Das heißt auch, dass man 6 mal mehr Windräder braucht, 6 Mal mehr Stahl und seltene Erden und eben auch 6 Mal mehr an Kosten für die Stromerzeugung ausgibt.
Cost-potential curves show how much wind energy you can get at what cost.
Usually, they include only engineering cost. We've added disamenity costs, translating the fact that some people don't like turbines into monetary values.
Our core finding is dual:
1) If you ignore people and build turbines where it is cheapest, you will annoy many neighbors and destroy welfare
2) If disamenties are taken into account when deciding where to build turbines, they remain small