Thread by @RGreggKeller

Eric Schmitt Is the Clear Front Runner in Missouri’s U.S. Senate Race

slu.edu/research/resea… #MOSen

“Missouri’s Attorney General, Republican Eric Schmitt, appears to be the clear frontrunner in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, according to our August 2022 SLU/YouGov Poll.”

“Given the political climate in Missouri, it seems that Schmitt would have a hard time losing.”

“Also, we cannot ignore that former President Donald Trump is still very popular in Missouri. We would expect him to endorse and possibly make a campaign appearance for Schmitt, likely increasing Schmitt’s chances of electoral success on November 8th.”

“Recent polling in Senate battleground states has indicated that the battle for control of the U.S. Senate is tightening. Consequently, Missouri is perceived as a state the Republican Party cannot afford to lose.”

“Schmitt leads Valentine by 25.9% in Northeast Missouri; by 16.7% in Northwest Missouri; by 30.5% in Southwest Missouri; and by 33.6% in Southeast Missouri.”

“More women said they would vote for Schmitt than Valentine if the election were held today by a 48.3% to 37.8% margin, while more men also said they would vote for Schmitt over Valentine by a 50.5% to 37.3%.”

“This statistic alone is tough poison to swallow for Valentine since Democratic candidates, especially female Democratic candidates, usually have a majority or plurality of female support.”

“It is difficult to imagine how Valentine could possibly win this Senate race without at least a thin majority of women supporting her.”

“Our SLU/YouGov Poll shows that Missouri’s likely voters are evenly split over whether they agree or disagree with the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning Roe v Wade with 46.6% agreeing and 49.6% disagreeing.”

“The decision to reverse Roe v. Wade seems to benefit Schmitt more than Valentine since those who strongly agree or agree with the Court’s decision are much more likely to support Schmitt than those who strongly disagree or disagree with the decision to support Valentine.”

“Given our analysis at this time, we see no viable path for Valentine to win. Eric Schmitt easily won his race for Attorney General in 2020, winning by a lopsided margin over Democratic candidate, Rich Finneran, 59.4% to 37.9%.”

“Unless the prevailing winds shift dramatically in favor of Valentine, we see Schmitt coasting to an easy victory.”