Thread by @Peter_Turchin

As I said, I really enjoyed this piece. Noah shows data for a bunch of new "proxies", variables that can help us with quantifying elite overproduction. Some reactions follow.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1562966527820804096

.@Noahpinion First, I disagree with the (apparent) criticism that my definition of elite overproduction focuses only on the supply -- it is explicitly the issue of balance of supply/demand. In #AgesOfDiscord I always consider both sides of the equation.

@Noahpinion Elite overproduction is always a relative thing, not an absolute one. The whole point is to understand what process generates frustrated elite aspirants, and how their numbers blow up, when supply starts to massively overwhelm demand.

@Noahpinion Second, Noah focuses on just the overproduction of youth with advanced degrees. This is only one half of the problem. Because the ruling elites in USA are a coalition between the wealth-holders (the notorious 1%) and the credential-holders (let's call them the 10%), ...

@Noahpinion ... both pipelines generate elite aspirants, and when they overwhelm the supply of elite positions, frustrated aspirants, many of whom convert into dissident elites.

@Noahpinion Back to the credentialed class (note that I use "class" in non-Marxian way -- not relations of productions, but simply a group of people with similar social and economic characteristics). ...

@Noahpinion I think it is a mischaracterization to qualify the main engine, producing discontent, as frustration of *rising* expectations. I believe it's not relative, but absolute deprivation. According to Richard Easterlin, children "imprint" on the desirable level of ...

@Noahpinion ... living when growing in the households of their parents. This rings true to me. So it's not frustration of *rising* expectations, but a failure to achieve the same level of well-being that their parents had. "It's not right that children should live worse than their parents"..

@Noahpinion ... cried a protestor in Athens some years ago. The problem is falling levels of well-being for a growing segment of the credential-holders. In absolute terms. This seems strange, as credential holders, on average, have been pulling away from the working classes

@Noahpinion ... (here defined as Americans with less than Bachelor's degree). But this average hides the huge disparities *within* the credential class. When inequality grows (and it does not only between the elites and non-elites, but also within the elite segments)...

@Noahpinion The average -- the mean -- can become meaningless. I'll illustrate it with one of the most important segments of the credentialed class -- holders of law degrees. Some years ago, I noticed a remarkable development.
peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/b…

@Noahpinion Between 1996 and 2000 the distribution of starting salaries for graduates of American law schools transformed from a typical one (one peak with a thick right tail) to a bimodal one (with two peaks). Here's what it looked like by 2010:

@Noahpinion As I was working on my forthcoming book, I checked the latest data, and the bimodal distribution not only has gone away, the gulf between the winners and losers continues to deepen. It may be too harsh to call the people in the left peak as losers, but realistically ...

@Noahpinion ... the great majority of them are not earning enough to pay off their student loans. These are the frustrated aspirants, and a bunch of them are converting to dissident elites ready to challenge the established elites.

@Noahpinion A law degree, of course, is the best credential you can get to jump-start your political career. Historically lots of revolutionaries were trained as lawyers (Robespierre, Lenin, Castro...). Here, Yale Law School has been a particularly productive source of counter-elites.

@Noahpinion Summing up, this example of "bimodal lawyers" illustrates that while the average rewards of a law degree have continued to trend up, because of an extreme form of inequality (two modes, Carl!) a growing segment of law degree holders have been falling down, in absolute terms.

@Noahpinion This is a very dangerous development. It was one of the reasons why my model forecast (in 2010) the turbulent 2020s.
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…

@Noahpinion *** end of thread ***