Thread by @iChunaav

In this thread 🧵, let’s crunch some numbers and get intimate with past Gujarat Vidhan Sabha elections. Is the history trying to lead us to some answer? Let’s see…

#Gujarat #Election #GujaratElections2022 #BJP #INC #AAP #Electionresultsanalysis #iChunaav

Despite a very close fight in 1990 between JD (70 seats) and BJP (67 seats), Gujarat was ruled by Chimanbhai Patel’s Janata Dal from 1990-95 with support from @INCGujarat . Ever since the dissolution of JD into INC in 1995, the state turned more or less into a Saffron bastion.

1995 till the last election in 2017, Gujarati’s have given a clear mandate to the BJP. @INCGujarat , ever since, has held second position in every election, although with less than half @BJPGujarat seats at least till 2012 elections. Deeper analysis of 2012 & 2017 follows.

Interestingly, despite being third in terms of seats, Vote share of @INCGujarat was the highest in 1990. Year wise vote share analysis shows a similar trend as seat analysis, but we see the difference in vote share not as wide as seats won between the two.

Vote share of both @BJPGujarat and @INCGujarat has seen a steady rise since 1990 to 2017 (a lot to do with polling percentages as well). But largely the state has witnessed a Bi-polar fight. Is the emergence of @AamAadmiParty in Gujarat set to change that in 2022? @AAPGujarat

The 10% odd gap in vote share which BJP enjoyed 4m 1995 to 2007 evidently narrows in 2012 and 2017. Though, the meagre 3.63% vote share of Keshubhai Patel’s GPP could be added to BJP post its merger with BJP in 2014, still the vote share story gets interesting post 2012 #Gujarat

Come 2012, the first election after delimitation IV in 2008, the Congress @INCGujarat and the @BJPGujarat almost maintained a status-quo where their seat count and party vote share was concerned.

#GujaratElections2022 #Gujarat #Electionresultsanalysis

BJP continued to maintain its hold over cities like Surat, Vadodara, and Ahmedabad. INC performed well in Northern Gujarat.

#Gujarat #election #GujaratElections2022 #electionresultsanalysis

2017, the first Gujarat Vidhan Sabha elections post Mr Modi’s ascent to PM’s chair, saw quite a swing. Congress (77 seats) gained 16 seats while BJP (99 seats) was reduced by 16 seats compared to 2012.
#Gujaratelection2017 #GujaratElection2022

In 2017 elections, @AamAadmiParty polled 24,918 votes and 0.1% vote share across Gujarat. Much is being said about this lately, however, a week is a long time in politics. Never commit the folly of predicting future elections based purely upon past results.

#GujaratElections2022

A lot was happening in Gujarat before 2017 elections. The Patel agitation, rural discordance, anti-incumbency were just few of these factors. @BJP4India has been in power in Gujarat since 1995 i.e., for nearly 27 years. #GujaratElections2022 will be interesting to say the least!

Since 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections, Gujarat had bye-elections in 20 assembly constituencies. The details of the seats and election year can be seen in the map here 👇
#Gujarat #Byelections #GujaratElection2022

The chart below explains the shift of seats between parties from 2017 to post bye-election results. Congress lost 15 seats to BJP and gained 3 from BJP; BJP gained 15 seats from Congress and 2 from independents.

#Gujarat #GujaratElection2022

After updating the results of all the bye-elections, the 14th Gujarat Assembly looks like this. @BJPGujarat has 113 MLAs, @INCGujarat 65, and the Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) still stands at 2.
@NCPspeaks and Independent candidate hold 1 seat each.

#Gujarat #GujaratElection2022

After updating all the 20 bye-election results for the 14th Gujarat Assembly, vote share of parties looks like this 👇

#Gujarat #GujaratElections2022

With a tally of 77 seats, 2017 was the best performance by congress in the last 32 years. It won 149 seats in 1985. Gujarat has witnessed a bi-polar fight since 1995. The last tripartite fight was in 1990.
PS - AAP’s vote share in 2017 stood at 0.1%

#GujaratElections2022

In the coming week, we will do a deeper analysis on margins, vote shares, understanding politics of political divisions etc. If you like what we create, please follow and share.