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Aug 27 17 tweets 15 min read
In this thread 🧵, let’s crunch some numbers and get intimate with past Gujarat Vidhan Sabha elections. Is the history trying to lead us to some answer? Let’s see…

#Gujarat #Election #GujaratElections2022 #BJP #INC #AAP #Electionresultsanalysis #iChunaav
Despite a very close fight in 1990 between JD (70 seats) and BJP (67 seats), Gujarat was ruled by Chimanbhai Patel’s Janata Dal from 1990-95 with support from @INCGujarat . Ever since the dissolution of JD into INC in 1995, the state turned more or less into a Saffron bastion. iChunaav - Gujarat Vidhan S...
1995 till the last election in 2017, Gujarati’s have given a clear mandate to the BJP. @INCGujarat , ever since, has held second position in every election, although with less than half @BJPGujarat seats at least till 2012 elections. Deeper analysis of 2012 & 2017 follows.
Interestingly, despite being third in terms of seats, Vote share of @INCGujarat was the highest in 1990. Year wise vote share analysis shows a similar trend as seat analysis, but we see the difference in vote share not as wide as seats won between the two. Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Electi...
Vote share of both @BJPGujarat and @INCGujarat has seen a steady rise since 1990 to 2017 (a lot to do with polling percentages as well). But largely the state has witnessed a Bi-polar fight. Is the emergence of @AamAadmiParty in Gujarat set to change that in 2022? @AAPGujarat Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Electi...
The 10% odd gap in vote share which BJP enjoyed 4m 1995 to 2007 evidently narrows in 2012 and 2017. Though, the meagre 3.63% vote share of Keshubhai Patel’s GPP could be added to BJP post its merger with BJP in 2014, still the vote share story gets interesting post 2012 #Gujarat Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Electi...
Come 2012, the first election after delimitation IV in 2008, the Congress @INCGujarat and the @BJPGujarat almost maintained a status-quo where their seat count and party vote share was concerned.

#GujaratElections2022 #Gujarat #Electionresultsanalysis iChunaav | Gujarat Vidhan S...
BJP continued to maintain its hold over cities like Surat, Vadodara, and Ahmedabad. INC performed well in Northern Gujarat.

#Gujarat #election #GujaratElections2022 #electionresultsanalysis iChunaav | Gujarat Vidhan S...
2017, the first Gujarat Vidhan Sabha elections post Mr Modi’s ascent to PM’s chair, saw quite a swing. Congress (77 seats) gained 16 seats while BJP (99 seats) was reduced by 16 seats compared to 2012.
#Gujaratelection2017 #GujaratElection2022 Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Result...
In 2017 elections, @AamAadmiParty polled 24,918 votes and 0.1% vote share across Gujarat. Much is being said about this lately, however, a week is a long time in politics. Never commit the folly of predicting future elections based purely upon past results.

#GujaratElections2022 Gujarat Vidhan Sabha 2017 P...
A lot was happening in Gujarat before 2017 elections. The Patel agitation, rural discordance, anti-incumbency were just few of these factors. @BJP4India has been in power in Gujarat since 1995 i.e., for nearly 27 years. #GujaratElections2022 will be interesting to say the least! Gujarat 2012 and 2017 Vidha...
Since 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections, Gujarat had bye-elections in 20 assembly constituencies. The details of the seats and election year can be seen in the map here 👇
#Gujarat #Byelections #GujaratElection2022 Gujarat Map - 20 Assembly C...
The chart below explains the shift of seats between parties from 2017 to post bye-election results. Congress lost 15 seats to BJP and gained 3 from BJP; BJP gained 15 seats from Congress and 2 from independents.

#Gujarat #GujaratElection2022 Gujarat Vidhan Sabha - Bye ...
After updating the results of all the bye-elections, the 14th Gujarat Assembly looks like this. @BJPGujarat has 113 MLAs, @INCGujarat 65, and the Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) still stands at 2.
@NCPspeaks and Independent candidate hold 1 seat each.

#Gujarat #GujaratElection2022 Gujarat XIV Assembly Party ...
After updating all the 20 bye-election results for the 14th Gujarat Assembly, vote share of parties looks like this 👇

#Gujarat #GujaratElections2022 Gujarat post bye-election v...
With a tally of 77 seats, 2017 was the best performance by congress in the last 32 years. It won 149 seats in 1985. Gujarat has witnessed a bi-polar fight since 1995. The last tripartite fight was in 1990.
PS - AAP’s vote share in 2017 stood at 0.1%

#GujaratElections2022 Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Result...
In the coming week, we will do a deeper analysis on margins, vote shares, understanding politics of political divisions etc. If you like what we create, please follow and share.

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More from @iChunaav

Aug 29
In this thread 🧵, we zoom into the 4 political divisions of Gujarat and see how each one voted in the last two state elections. For reference, a map of political divisions juxtaposed with districts of Gujarat can be found here 👇

#gujaratelection2022 #GujaratElections Political Divisions and Dis...
Saurashtra-Kutch - the biggest political division in the state both in terms of area and number of constituencies, swung dramatically in favour of INC in 2017 as compared to 2012. INC gained 14 seats in 2017 while the BJP lost 12 seats in the region.

#GujaratElections Saurashtra - Kutch Politica...
Despite the swing, BJP gained around 1% vote share while the INC clocked a whopping 9% gain in vote share. It is noteworthy that this region is the least urbanised in the state and that BJP lost on 4 SC reserved seats from its 2012 tally which went to INC in 2017.

#Saurashtra
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