@RheinmetallAG responded to my last thread about their participation in construction of Mulino training ground where Putin trained and is still training his army for the war in Ukraine. And yet, I feel that their answer is misleading (to say the least). So I'll add some context🧵
To start with, @RheinmetallAG claims that they simply provided the "simulation technology" for the Mulino project. The audience may think you were just one of many subcontractors. But that's not what your own press release from 2011 says. It's about winning an order to *build* it
This, according to your own words, "state of the art training centre" was modelled after the Bundewehr facility in Altmark and represented "the German defence industry's first significant foothold in the Russian market". You hoped for more follow up orders from Russia
This remark may be hard for a layman to interpret. Why exactly did you hope for more follow up orders? Because of the "plans to modernise the equipment of the Russian armed forces".
What did you mean by that?
"Plans to modernise the equipment" = Serdyukov's reforms
Since Sergeyev's era, the land army was in low priority within the Russian armed forces. Sergeyev himself used to be the commander of Strategic Rocket Forces. In 1997 when he became a minister resources of the Russian army were very limited. So he invested it all into the rockets
Spend-it-all-on-rockets strategy brought its fruits. In 2000, Russia got the first fully Russian intercontinental ballistic missile - Topol-M. All the previous analogues were either built in Ukraine or had lots of Ukrainian components. Sergeyev managed to import substitute them
That gives context for the "import substitution" discourse. Russia indeed managed to do its import substitution. Over the three decades they mostly substituted Ukrainian components, that Russian missiles and aircraft industries used to be totally dependent upon. Great success
It was only the minister Serdyukov appointed in 2007 who for the first time prioritised the Russian land army. No wonder, in 2007 Serdyukov had *way* more cash than Sergeyev could dream of in 1997. Putin pumped hella lots of the oil revenue into the military
In 1997 Sergeyev had to save *something* with minimal budgets. So he chose to save strategic rockets and allowed the rest to rot
In 2007 Serdyukov had to improve the military with new massive budgets. So he focused on the inadequate land army, rather than on already good rockets
Two things were special about the Serdyukov's ministry:
1. No other minister put so much focus on the land army 2. No other minister was so enthusiastic about the direct import of weaponry and ready solutions from the West. Most importantly, from Germany
In June 2011 Serdyukov visited the German Army combat training centre in Letzlingen with the Russian ministry of defence delegation (see the photo). Here they signed contract with the Rheinmetall AG to build a training centre in Mulino, Russia
Why Rheinmetall though? Well, that's the leading defence company which had already built a Bundeswehr training centre in Altmark. Now they promised to build a superior version in Russia, clearly hoping to signs more contracts with this import-friendly minister
Simulation technology would be one of the key features of this centre. For example, instead of the real ammo they would use lasers. Much cheaper (= you can train more often), safer, easier to track and analyse. Therefore, easier to see and amend one's mistakes after the training
Just a minor detail. In the German center Mulino was modelled after, they used special simulation gas masks. Soldiers would often loosen their masks during the training, making it easier to breathe. But simulation masks had pressure sensors that would detect it. No BS approach
To be fair, Serdyukov aimed to import useful equipment from other countries as well. He placed orders for the French Mistral-class amphibious assault ships, Italian Iveco Light Multirole Vehicle. He even planned to buy Italian wheeled tanks (at the anger of Russian producers)
The clueless or the liars argue that it was the "corruption scandal" that led to the Serdyukov's downfall. Absolutely deranged idea. In most cases "corruption"a pretext, a rhetorical smoke curtain to hide the real reason. In this case, the anger of military industrial lobby
Since 2000 Putin consolidated the military industry into a number of mega-holdings. Roskosmos is doing ballistic missiles, Almaz Antey - air defence, KTRV - cruise missiles, Rosatom - nuclear warheads. But the largest, the most powerful and most eclectic one is Rostec
If other Russian defence mega holdings have some clear specialisation or focus, Rostec does not. It's eclectic, it's about everything. To put it simply, its CEO Chemezov swallowed (often through hostile takeovers, etc) everything he could. That's why Rostec is about everything
Back then Rostec hadn't swallowed all the land army production (as it has by now). But it was already a gigantic producer in this field. That's why Serdyukov's switching-to-import strategy was so risky for Serdyukov's career. He was making too many enemies
In 2007 created a JSC Oboronservis. This state-owned company had to receive the military from the non-military functions. Construction, repairment, energy - all of this functions were taken from the military and given to this daughter company of the ministry of defence
Serdyukov's mistress and Chief of Staff Vasilyeva was at the Oboronservis board of directors. Some argued this affair was his major mistake. He divorced his wife, a daughter of Putin's close friend and ex-prime minister Zubkov for Vasilyeva. Thad didn't win him more friends
In 2012 Vasilyeva's apartment where she lived with Serdyukov was searched, as well as homes of Serdyukov and his aides from the Ministry of Defence. They were all accused of corruption (Oboronservis case). Many of these accusations were probably true. Still, it was a pretext
To execute the Mulino project, Rheinmetall "entered into a strategic partnership with JSC Oboronservis". Oboronservis would serve as the general contractor and later operate the facility on behalf of the Russian army
Why? Because Oboronservis was Serdyukov's wallet
Serdyukov created the JSC Oboronservis and made it his wallet. Construction, repairment, maintenance: this company was getting all the juicy contracts the Ministry of Defense had. That's why the Rheinmetall AG concluded the "strategic partnership" for building Mulino with them
In Serdyukov's era JSC Oboronservis accumulated lots of nice contracts. But Serdyukov's downfall and the Oboronservis case gave this name a bad reputation. So in 2014 they rebranded to the Гарнизон (Garnison) company. And continued to build Mulino in the same capacity. The end
PS After 2014 Rheinmetall "left" Mulino to the "Garnison" (=Oboronservis). Thankfully, import genius allows to trace where Гарнизон was importing stuff from. It's all from Germany, Rheinmetall AG making the lion share
It looks as Garnison was merely a proxy for Rheinmetall
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What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.