Ben Cowling Profile picture
Aug 29 14 tweets 4 min read
New preprint (not yet peer reviewed) on our randomized trial of third doses in HK, where BNT162b2 (BioNTech/Fosun Pharma/Pfizer) and CoronaVac (Sinovac) are the two available vaccines. With @nancyleung_hk @gmleunghku @svalko3 and others. Short thread(1/14)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Among adults ≥18y who initially received two doses of CoronaVac, we randomized 101 to a CoronaVac booster (“CC-C”) and 118 to a BNT162b2 booster (“CC-B”). Among adults ≥18 who initially received BNT162b2, we randomized 118 to “BB-C” and 114 to “BB-B” (2/14)
The third doses were given at least 6 months after the second dose, and on average participants received the third dose about 7 months after their second dose (3/14)
We aimed to study antibody responses, T cell responses, and reactogenicity to the vaccine. When we planned the study we had not anticipated a large COVID epidemic occurring in the community, but a large epidemic did occur, allowing us to assess relative efficacy (4/14)
We measured antibody responses using a surrogate neutralization assay (sVNT) in all participants, and a live virus neutralization assay (PRNT50) in our high-biosecurity laboratory in a random subset of 20 participants per group (5/14)
Antibody responses against the ancestral virus (vaccine strain) and Omicron BA1 and BA2 were much stronger in recipients of third doses of BNT162b2, with very low levels of antibody against BA.2 in the BB-C and CC-C arms particularly in the live virus neutralization assay (6/14)
T-cell responses on day 7 were notable in the CC-C and CC-B arms, i.e. those primed with CoronaVac, and comparable between those two groups, but interestingly were not seen in the BB-C or BB-B arms (7/14)
Reactions to the vaccine were much stronger on average for recipients of a BNT162b2 booster, with the lowest rate of reactions reported in the BB-C arm (8/14)
Hong Kong experienced a very large epidemic of Omicron BA.2 in March 2022, with more than a million confirmed cases (14% of pop) and likely more than 50% of the population infected, with many infections not laboratory-confirmed and reported to govt (9/14)
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28…
We identified 58 infections in total (13% of participants), including some infections that likely would not have been identified and reported to the govt if participants had not been in our study, so the 13% in our study can't be directly compared to 14% in the population (10/14)
We observed similar levels of infection in each of the four arms in the study, despite the substantial difference that we found in neutralizing antibodies (much higher in BNT162b2 recipients) (11/14)
Our study shows that regardless of whether individuals first received BNT162b2 or CoronaVac, they could choose either vaccine for a third dose (12/14)
Perhaps most interesting observations for us were (1) the weaker T cell responses to a third dose in those primed with BNT162b2, and (2) the disparity between neutralizing antibodies (much higher with BNT162b2 booster) versus vaccine efficacy (seems similar between arms) (13/14)
To rephrase the last point, we might need to look beyond neutralizing antibodies to find other immune markers that reflect the protection provided by CoronaVac(?) Our next step is to look at non-neutralizing antibodies to internal virus genes (14/14)

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More from @bencowling88

Aug 22
Hong Kong update - exponential rise in BA.4 and/or BA.5 (probably BA.5) continues. BA.2 cases now stable and will probably be declining soon, looks like we've hit herd immunity to this subvariant for now ... (1/6)
Herd immunity to BA.2 under current public health measures has been reached by high incidence of BA.2 infections (providing strong long-lasting immunity against BA.2 re-infection) as well as transient protection against BA.2 infection from booster doses in some ppl ...(2/6)
...which is not long-lasting, thus BA.2 cases will not decline to zero in the short-term. There are continuous pool of newly susceptible ppl in the population as booster dose protection against /infection/ wears out. Booster protection against severe disease is maintained (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 15
I can see now where this 20,000 comes from ...
... the calculation is hinted at in this blog post ...
... assume that (1) none of the 120,000 unvaccinated 80+y in Hong Kong were infected in the fifth wave and therefore would have some natural immunity, and assume that (2) every one of them would be infected soon after we open up without having a chance to get vaccinated...
Read 4 tweets
Jul 14
Increasing the stringency of home isolation for cases in Hong Kong, with electronic tracking bracelets, will have a minimal effect on transmission. Scientific basis for my assessment is in the thread which follows … (1/27)
Article here in SCMP, “quarantine” in the title should actually be “isolation”. Quarantine is for people who test negative but who might already be infected and just not yet testing positive, the idea being to prevent any chance of transmission (2/27)
scmp.com/news/hong-kong…
Isolation of infectious persons is an important control measure in any epidemic, and has been an important public health measure throughout the COVID pandemic. Until earlier this year, every single documented case in Hong Kong was isolated in hospital or in… (3/27)
Read 27 tweets
Jul 13
From the SCMP article earlier today, I was surprised at the prediction of 10,000 patients needing hospitalization. The level of peak incidence would have to be very high to result in 10,000 patients needing hospitalization, now that we have high vaccine coverage and some ...(1/4)
... cross-immunity against BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 from infections in the large fifth wave with BA.2 earlier this year.

Of course if every single case is hospitalized, we will run out of space, but - if hospital beds are reserved for those who need them - it's ... (2/4)
difficult to envisage another large+severe wave this summer/autumn.

As community prevalence increases, there will also be more and more patients in hospital /with/ COVID in addition to those in hospital /because of/ COVID, and some of these will need isolation too (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29
There's some discussion in HK about on-arrival quarantine periods. The purpose of on-arrival quarantine - a key part of a Zero Covid strategy - is to reduce the rate at which infections are "seeded" into the community from outside, perhaps with two objectives in mind: (1/11)
1. if local cases are zero each day, a new outbreak could require costly+disruptive control measures (think of Shanghai in April), and the fewer outbreaks the better. Less seeding means less outbreaks.

2. even if there is a local outbreak, preventing additional seeding... (2/11)
... particularly with new variants (like BA.4 and BA.5) could be beneficial (a multi-strain wave could be a larger wave than a single-strain wave?)

but if all globally-prevalent subvariants are already spreading in Hong Kong, neither of the above two conditions apply? (3/11)
Read 11 tweets
Jun 28
Thread on our new preprint (not yet peer reviewed) on the low but non-zero risk of COVID-19 transmission in quarantine hotels in Hong Kong, with @dcadam @gmleung @worldepidemic and other colleagues (1/32) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Brief summary - we identify 6 additional cases of within-hotel transmission using epidemiologic data and virus sequence data. At least 12 such events occurred up to January 2022. We discuss how on-arrival quarantine can /delay/ but not ultimately /prevent/ local outbreaks (2/32)
Since late 2020 all persons arriving in Hong Kong from overseas have been required to quarantine for 7, 14 or 21 days in a "designated quarantine hotel" or a specialised facility. There are currently 65 hotels in the DQH scheme with ~24,000 rooms (3/32)
info.gov.hk/gia/general/20…
Read 34 tweets

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