I have been a close observer of energy policy in Argentina for nearly twenty years. What I see now in the EU brings to mind Argentina's responses to high energy prices and shortages. A🧵to warn you what can happen when politicians take over energy markets: /1
1. Politicians protect Voters/Households from consequences of bad energy policy - preventing Demand Moderation. Price Caps/Subsidies to Households/Limiting Supply to Industry - whatever they have to do to keep Voters/Households' energy supplied and costs low. /2
2. Utilities and Transporters Get Squeezed - Profits eliminated through Price Caps and Regulation. Shareholders and Creditors of Utilities and Transporters are left out in the Cold. /3
3. Capex Eliminated and Opex Slashed - Energy infrastructure does not grow - is frozen. Maintenance Capex ratcheted back as is Opex. Initially the system continues to function, but over time lack of Maintenance Capex sees regular Energy Infrastructure system failures. /4
4. Industry Left Short of Energy & Political Lobbying/Favouritism Determine Who is Supplied. Politicians incentivised to keep Voters happy, so Households come first. Critical industry like Power Plants & Hospitals have a good claim to be supplied. After that it's Political. /5
5. Buyers/Importers of Energy Become Less Credit-Worthy, so must provide more Credit Support & Pay Higher Prices to Foreign Energy Producers to obtain supply. Gov't support for Energy Importation becomes Vital. Who can obtain such Government credit support becomes Political. /6
6. Exports of Energy - Gas, Power, Liquid Fuels, Coal - are reduced or eliminated. Neighbouring countries and trade partners are left to share some of the suffering (as Argentina did to Chile in 2006). /7
7. Political Control of Energy Sector, Bad Reactive Energy Policy & Low Returns Lead Energy Companies & Investors to Avoid Investing in-country. Investors are local players connected to politicians. /8
8. Explicit & Implicit Energy Subsidies to Industry & Households Remain in Place for a long time for political reasons. This will create a fiscal issue for public finances for some time. /9
9. Politicians Like the Power and Stay Involved in Energy Policy and Energy Markets for a Long Time - well after any crisis. /10
10. Explicit and Implicit Subsidies for Existing Energy Sources make penetration of new energy supplies difficult. A stasis of sorts sets in in the energy sector. New innovation and investment is limited, and dependent on politics. /11
11. There are policy options to meet immediate crisis needs: e.g. Credit Support to Utilities; Direct Subsidies to Poorest Households; Incentives to Non-Exporting/Consumptio Industry to Restrict Energy Usage; but when Politicians Step into Heart of Pricing & Supply - watch out.
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Mega-Thread 🧵below in light of today's news that Canadian intelligence services have identified Chinese state support for Mark Carney in the Liberal Leadership race.
Very few people in public life have longer or deeper relationships with Chinese Communist Party Leadershio than Mark Carney @markjcarney
Have you EVER heard Mark Carney say anything critical of the People's Republic of China or the Chinese Communist Party?
Have you every heard Mark Carney make a comment on the security and defence challenges Canada and the West have with China?
Why doesn't the Canadian media report on Mark Carney's frequent meetings in the People's Republic of China and with CCP Leaders abroad? Note that UK and Chinese media do.
A long and growing thread to raise awareness of Carney's relationships with the CCP is set out below.
@MarkJCarney @brianlilley @sunlorrie @TheTorontoSun @RobertFife @stevenchase @cafreeland @christyclarkbc @melaniejoly @CPC_HQ @PierrePoilievre This photo was taken in August 2013 -
Turns out that Ghislaine Maxwell is old friends with the founder of this party Wilderness Festival and attended several times - tatler.com/article/where-…
If you want to get a sense of the party that Maxwell and Carney were at there is a short film here - youtube.com/watch?v=Ii9c79…
Leslie Church may be a nice person, but she has No Business Being an MP
Leslie Church is a Liberal Crony who has participated in some of the worst and most damaging Trudeau Liberal and Ontario Liberal policies and programs.
It is not an exaggeration to say that Leslie Church has had a direct hand as a Chief of Staff to various Ministers in creating Inflation, Deficits, Wasteful Covid Procurement, Insider Dealing to Liberal Cronies and the Rental Crisis.
It is almost too much to be believable, but as you will see from the Thread below it is all too real.
On June 24th - Vote for Anyone But Liberal Crony Leslie Church
/2
Risk of Fraud and Foreign Electoral Interference in Selection of new Prime Minister of Canada -
Liberal Party Leadership Election Process for Canadian PM Open to Foreign Malign or Corporate Influence
1. If Trudeau resigns or is removed, there will be a Leadership Election in the Liberal Party. Unless an election has been called, then the new Liberal Leader will become Prime Minister of Canada.
2. Rules for a Liberal Membership and Leadership Election are contained in the Liberal Party's own Constitution - liberal.ca/legacy-uploads…
3. The Liberal Party allows ANYONE in Canada to become a Liberal Member WITH NO FEE (S. 7 Constitution). ANYONE can sign up Online as a Liberal Member to Vote for the Leader - NO ID required - huge Fraud Risk - liberal.ca/register/
4. SO ANY PERSON - whether or not they are a Citizen, whether or not they are a Permanent Resident, whether or not they are subject to Intimidation - ANYONE - can become a Liberal Party Member and select the next PM.
5. This means that the more than 1.3 Million Non-Permanent Residents in Canada as Students or Temporary Workers could become Liberal Party Members - for free - and vote to select the next PM.
6. This massive hole in protecting our democracy is one of the key ways that China and other Foreign powers have undertaken Foreign Electoral Interference according to CSIS. Busloads of people - whether or not they are eligible to vote, whether or not they are subject to intimidation - are bused into select Liberal candidates today. The same buses (and more can show up to select the next Prime Minister). globalnews.ca/news/9504291/l… nationalpost.com/opinion/nomina…
7. Elections Canada is not involved in the Leadership Election process: "Regarding leadership contests for registered federal parties, Elections Canada’s role is to ensure that contestants, contributors, and other political entities understand and comply with the political financing limits and regulations laid out in the Canada Elections Act. We are not otherwise involved in the process to select party leaders." - elections.ca/content.aspx?s…
@PierrePoilievre @MichaelChongMP @AndrewScheer @RobMoore_CPC @CPC_HQ @yfblanchet @ledevoir @BlocQuebecois @globeandmail @nationalpost @RobertFife @stevenchase @TerryGlavin @bobmackin @sunlorrie @liberal_party @acoyne @LMartinOtt @ElectionsCan_E @SusanDelacourt
Jean Chretien’s Brother Michel is close with the People’s Republic of China Minister of Health and an honorary Professor at Peking Union Medical College.
“While studying biochemistry at the University of California at Berkeley, Chrétien had trained with a Chinese researcher, Dr. C.H. Li, an enduring connection that saw Chrétien visit China in 1979, and then seven times more over the years.
Chrétien was an honorary professor at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College.
In 1984, when he became president of the IRCM, he trained emerging scientists from China. One of those youngsters was Chen Zhu, a molecular biologist who eventually entered politics and served as China’s minister of health from 2007 until 2013.”