I have been a close observer of energy policy in Argentina for nearly twenty years. What I see now in the EU brings to mind Argentina's responses to high energy prices and shortages. A🧵to warn you what can happen when politicians take over energy markets: /1
1. Politicians protect Voters/Households from consequences of bad energy policy - preventing Demand Moderation. Price Caps/Subsidies to Households/Limiting Supply to Industry - whatever they have to do to keep Voters/Households' energy supplied and costs low. /2
2. Utilities and Transporters Get Squeezed - Profits eliminated through Price Caps and Regulation. Shareholders and Creditors of Utilities and Transporters are left out in the Cold. /3
3. Capex Eliminated and Opex Slashed - Energy infrastructure does not grow - is frozen. Maintenance Capex ratcheted back as is Opex. Initially the system continues to function, but over time lack of Maintenance Capex sees regular Energy Infrastructure system failures. /4
4. Industry Left Short of Energy & Political Lobbying/Favouritism Determine Who is Supplied. Politicians incentivised to keep Voters happy, so Households come first. Critical industry like Power Plants & Hospitals have a good claim to be supplied. After that it's Political. /5
5. Buyers/Importers of Energy Become Less Credit-Worthy, so must provide more Credit Support & Pay Higher Prices to Foreign Energy Producers to obtain supply. Gov't support for Energy Importation becomes Vital. Who can obtain such Government credit support becomes Political. /6
6. Exports of Energy - Gas, Power, Liquid Fuels, Coal - are reduced or eliminated. Neighbouring countries and trade partners are left to share some of the suffering (as Argentina did to Chile in 2006). /7
7. Political Control of Energy Sector, Bad Reactive Energy Policy & Low Returns Lead Energy Companies & Investors to Avoid Investing in-country. Investors are local players connected to politicians. /8
8. Explicit & Implicit Energy Subsidies to Industry & Households Remain in Place for a long time for political reasons. This will create a fiscal issue for public finances for some time. /9
9. Politicians Like the Power and Stay Involved in Energy Policy and Energy Markets for a Long Time - well after any crisis. /10
10. Explicit and Implicit Subsidies for Existing Energy Sources make penetration of new energy supplies difficult. A stasis of sorts sets in in the energy sector. New innovation and investment is limited, and dependent on politics. /11
11. There are policy options to meet immediate crisis needs: e.g. Credit Support to Utilities; Direct Subsidies to Poorest Households; Incentives to Non-Exporting/Consumptio Industry to Restrict Energy Usage; but when Politicians Step into Heart of Pricing & Supply - watch out.
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Jean Chretien’s Brother Michel is close with the People’s Republic of China Minister of Health and an honorary Professor at Peking Union Medical College.
“While studying biochemistry at the University of California at Berkeley, Chrétien had trained with a Chinese researcher, Dr. C.H. Li, an enduring connection that saw Chrétien visit China in 1979, and then seven times more over the years.
Chrétien was an honorary professor at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College.
In 1984, when he became president of the IRCM, he trained emerging scientists from China. One of those youngsters was Chen Zhu, a molecular biologist who eventually entered politics and served as China’s minister of health from 2007 until 2013.”
Foreign Interference Inquiry - Justice Hogue practiced at the same law firm as Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien.
I wish Justice Hogue well on this assignment, but for transparency all Canadians should be aware that: 1. Justice Hogue was employed and then a Partner of Heenan Blaikie from 1987 to 2014. 2. Pierre Elliot Trudeau was a Counsel of Heenan Blaikie in the Montreal office where Justice Hogue practiced from 1984 to 2000. 3. Jean Chretien was a Counsel at Heenan Blaikie also. 4. See Heenan Blaikie letterhead attached with Pierre Trudeau's, Jean Chretien's and Marie-Josee Hogue's names set out very clearly.
4. Heenan Blaikie was the law firm that represented Justin Trudeau, including in relation to his departure from West Point Grey Academy.
It is not known if Justice Hogue worked directly with Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien, but she was in the same office in Montreal for many years and would have interacted with them.
Foreign Interference Inquiry Justice Hogue worked in the same office as the Canada China Business Council for many years (the organization that Power Corp, Sun Life and other corporates use to promote trade with China).
Canada China Business Council’s Montreal office was located from 2011 to 2014 at 1250, boulevard Rene-Levesque Ouest, Montreal, QC, IN THE OFFICES OF HER FIRM Heenan Blaikie (while Justice Hogue was a Partner there).
Justice Hogue's former law firm Heenan Blaikie sought to develop a major China practice.
In addition to hosting the Canada China Business Council in its offices, it recruited former Liberal Justice Minister Martin Cauchon in 2012 to develop a major China practice (while Justice Hogue was a Partner there - see article from Montreal Gazette below). montrealgazette.com/business/marti…
Trudeau Minister Stephen Gibeault @s_guilbeault - was involved in Clean Tech Investments with People's Republic of China (PRC). 1. Gibeault was involved with Venture Capital Firm Cycle Capital Management @cyclecapitalvc for more than 10 years, and left his environmental NGO in 2018 to focus on Cycle Capital 2. Cycle Capital Management has a Clean Tech Joint Venture with People's Republic of China state company Qingdao City Construction Investment Group since 2014 3. For background - the Trudeau Liberal Government said in 2016 that one of its key priorities with the PRC was promoting Clean Tech and PM Justin Trudeau personally promoted Canadian Clean Tech in 2016 in Shanghai (see Globe & Mail story linked below) 4. Note in addition to Guilbeault - Minister Jonathan Wilkinson was also a CEO of a Clean Tech company with a joint venture with a Chinese state company before joining the Trudeau Liberal Government - see link to Tweet below) 5. Below is then Liberal Environment Minister (and PRC CCICED Vice-Chair) Cath McKenna promoting Cycle Capital's joint Venture with PRC Qingdao City Construction Group in 2017
The Trudeau Liberal Government invested in Cycle Capital in 2019 - just prior to Stephen Guilbeault leaving Cycle to become an MP and Minister in Trudeau's Government.
Liberal Minister Mary Ng made the investment: cyclecapital.com/en/2019/06/05/…
The announcement of the Liberal Government $20 million investment in Cycle Capital was made on 5 June 2019.
Stephen Guilbeault of Cycle Capital announced on 19 June 2019 that he was seeking the Liberal Party of Canada nomination for the riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie in the 2019 Canadian federal election.
Coincidence?
Anna Gainey - Liberal Candidate in NDG-Westmount - Links to the United Front of the People's Republic of China ("PRC")
Voters in the Notre-Dame de Grace - Westmount By-election should consider Anna Gainey's links to the People's Republic of China and ask her a number of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Anna Gainey was Executive Chair of Canada 2020.
Canada 2020 is tied to Center for American Progress through the Global Progress initiative.
Center for American Progress is funded by Chinese Communist Party United Front organisations. /3 foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/28/thi…
Overview of Global Progress initiative of Center for American Progress - Trudeau, Liberals like former PMO Chief of Staff Gerry Butts and Canada 2020 Directors feature prominently: /4 americanprogress.org/series/global-…
David Johnston - opening the Vault for the People's Republic of China and the People's Liberation Army to access sensitive Canadian research and intellectual property. Under President David Johnston, University of Waterloo became the no 4 Research Collaborator Globally of the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
In China, the PLA’s overseas research collaboration is described in frank terms. The PLA Daily uses the saying ‘Picking flowers in foreign lands to make honey in China’ to explain how it seeks to leverage overseas expertise, research and training to develop better military… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This chart below showing the massive increase in published academic papers resulting from People's Liberation Army collaboration with Western Universities shows a massive uptick starting in 2008. Given it takes a number of years to undertake research and then publish, we can see… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation IS CONNECTED to the Trudeau Liberal Government and to Justin Trudeau personally. Justin Trudeau’s claims that the PET Foundation is separate are false. Details of deep connections are as follows - Thread: /2
1. The Foundation received a $125 million endowment from the Federal Government, from which it derives investment income. The funds must be returned to the Government in certain circumstances.
See page 81 Note 9 in PET Foundation Annual Report: trudeaufoundation.ca/sites/default/…
2. Three of the Members who oversee Governance are selected by the Government of Canada. One Director on the Board of Directors is selected by these Members appointed by the Government.
See overview of Governance in this PET Foundation Annual Report. /4trudeaufoundation.ca/sites/default/…