So, even if after EIP-4844 L1 fees drop to ~1% of total fees, the rollup still accounts for 99% of the fees. Hence, it remains completely up to the rollups on how low the fees are. Today, Arbitrum has chosen a flat 0.1 gwei gas price as a floor, presumably to avoid spammy bloat.
W/ 0.1 gwei floor, post-4844 the fees on Arbitrum One will actually only drop 2x-3x, not 100x. Currently, an ETH transfer is $0.03 (btw, an OR is now as cheap as zkrs!) it'll only drop to ~$0.01. So, it's entirely up to Arbitrum itself to reduce this floor through efficiencies.
Summing up:
- EIP-4844 will make the L1 fees component trivially cheap
- For a successful rollup, the fees users will pay will depend upon the rollup itself, and not the L1
- It'll be up to the rollup, not the L1, to reduce fees with state mgmt, efficient fee markets, etc.
Lastly, I know prominent developers & researchers think that L1 fees will still be a significant portion after EIP-4844, so please take my opinion as an armchair hobbyist with zero experience in software development and skeptical of 99% of crypto with a huge truckload of salt.
Subset of explorer links I used to determine the above numbers:
A successful DEX can certainly securely settle billions of dollars in value, but it's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem. A new DEX will necessarily be insecure barring speculation. Instead, a DEX collaborating with a focused settlement layer will always win significantly.
So, the optimal approach, then, is being an application-specific rollup settling to a settlement layer that already securely settles vast liquidity. The unpredictability disappears completely, you just pay a negligible fee to access all of that capital.
A few days ago, I drafted a proposal to pause funding activities on Optimism, primarily citing regulatory risk. I believe we now have precedent to take the matter more seriously. While the proposal doesn't have much support, I will personally abide by it.
I believe it's totally unacceptable for a rollup to have centrally controlled backdoors. An approach like zkSync with an emergency council is significantly more resilient, and has no material drawbacks. OF can retain emergency pause rights, if necessary, but not upgrade rights.
Today, Optimism has $2.25B in TVL, with $1.12B in DeFi protocols, with a >100% gain in the last week alone. People are still underestimating the potence of $OP incentives, which have only just begun.
You can do a shitpost with jokes and such, but that's unambitious
You could also do serious commentary - but that's not shitposting
The best shitpost is when you're having a laugh, but everyone thinks it's serious, or vice versa
Finding the right balance is high art
What I've learned:
- It has to be believable: there must be elements of truth and sincere opinion
- It has to framed provocatively: otherwise it's not a shitpost
- It must work as both a shitpost and serious commentary, and reflect the eye of the beholder, with a spectrum in b/w
Regrettably, this is somewhat true. I have been clear that I dislike most of crypto and crypto twitter, and much of this account is a performance. My only goal was to help in my own little way to address information asymmetry around scaling in 2020/21.
I stopped enjoying a long time ago, for a long while now I'm here mostly because of inertia and people keep requesting me to. I have been committed to a gradual wind-down, but I'm personally better off putting a hard stop to my rollup-related discussions on twitter.
You may have noticed that for most of this year I have been shitposting about other topics like economic sustainability, application layer etc. and not rollups. The recent discussions around dydx have reminded me why I don't care about rollups anymore - it always boils down to...
Some things dYdX may lose downgrading to a monolithic chain:
- arbitrarily frequent oracle updates
- instant pre-confirmations
- inclusive accountability (this needs to be developed, of course)
- secure access to ~$50B USDC, limiting their growth
It's very much possible for zk rollups to retain all of the above while still having distributed sequencers & provers - because they cleanly separate safety and liveness. A monolithic chain must do both and will necessarily be less efficient & scalable.
I have no doubt a zk-rollup based derivatives exchange will offer a decisively superior technical experience in every way than dYdX V4's monolithic chain long term. It's also true that it requires much more engineering work and will take longer for rollups to get there.
At long last, an exciting innovation on the application layer! Isaac is one of the few games (alongside Briq, Influence etc.) that actually delivers an enhanced experience using blockchain tech. It's a co-operative game where the central narrative & puzzle is coordinated...
...by smart contracts. The narrative puzzle is based on the three-body problem. Players are trapped on Ev, a planet with three suns, constantly under threat of crashing into them. Players collaborate to build together to keep engineering their way out of this fate.
There's no P2E/P2W to play Isaac - but those who play well are awarded rights to govern how the game evolves, with full forkability. Don't like Isaac's ruleset? Great - make your own fork! Players can choose to make that the new canonical Isaac, quadratic voting for fairness.