Thread by @wartranslated

Day 189, August 31. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast. This update is provided by @savaadaak

Text version: wartranslated.com/day-189-august…

⚡️ Kherson: There won't be any fast changes, there are 25-30 🇷🇺 BTGs.

🇺🇦 Is still focusing on destroying 🇷🇺 logistics and supplies. During daytime 4 hits on bridges.
Most front-line is stable, the only way is frontal, systematically pushing 🇷🇺 back with artillery and aviation. Do not expect fast results, 🇺🇦 is protecting their troops.

Fast results are always bloody.

⚡️ Battlefield update: 🇷🇺 doing pre-planned actions in Donbas (Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vuhledar), not much success, not even 1km advances.
🇷🇺 don't know where to deploy their 3rd Army Corps.

This means, they don't know 🇺🇦 intent, granting 🇺🇦 strategic, or at least operational advantage. Most of it are on east bank of Dnipro, wondering where to expect 🇺🇦 attack.

⚡️ Referendum: After 🇺🇦 operation start, 🇷🇺 quickly forgot about referendum, now restarting.

This means, 🇺🇦 is controlling situation by speed of advances.

⚡️ 🇺🇦 Army:
🇺🇦 could use additional 30k well motivated and trained infantry. From 1m 🇺🇦 solders, about 200k-300k have battle experience, and only in slow war like in Donbas from 2014.

⚡️ IAEA mission in Zaporozhye:
It's the only organization that can rule on 🇷🇺 military presence. It's conclusions would be another step in diplomatic means, even if it's ignored.

Diplomacy works the same way as war - slow and incremental changes leads to conditions for breakthrough.

⚡️ Visas:
🇪🇺 suspended 2007 agreement on simplified visa procedure for 🇷🇺 citizens. 🇪🇺 travel makes up significant part of 🇷🇺 government officials life.

Change of lifestyle simultaneously with loss of worldview can cause very strong psychological reaction and sobering. Society can only learn either by systematically achieving goals, or through crisis and catastrophes. There is no development in Putin's regime.

⚡️ Gorbachev:

Gorbachev is responsible for all 🇷🇺 frozen conflicts related to disintegration of USSR (including 🇺🇦). Gorbachev gave order to win 🇦🇫 Afganistan in 1986, it led to huge losses.

In order to deal with local bureaucracy and secret services, Gorbachev decided to loose at foreign affairs. It resulted with coup, Yeltsin, etc. It was obvious that Gorbachev allowed coup to happen. After that, there was nothing left of USSR to control.

People coming after Gorbachev attempted to restore previous territories by methods of cold war - unrecognized republics, grey zones, wars.

⚡️ 🇷🇺 Opposition meeting:
Was supposed to happen today, but got canceled.

There exists military organization, liberal opposition, the only thing missing is political representation. Without representation, they have no chance to win