Last week, #Iraq saw the first coup attempt in decades. A complicated political/religious blow triggered a series of events that brought to a head the rivalry between the Sadrists and elements of the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF). 🧵 1/5
In assessing the sudden social media activity of several Sadrist accounts posting, just before the conflict began, about the coming “big surprise,” combined with the fierceness and overnight duration of the attack points towards an actual attempt to overthrow the system. 2/5
They faced unexpected resistance, especially in the IZ and Basra, which led to a very public statement of retreat. Though the IZ took longer than they’d expected, the mobilization required from their rivals to keep it that way was disproportionately large. 3/5
Had al-Sadr squashed their rivals and pushed them from the government zone, Iraq might have seen itself dissolve into an unstoppable civil war – but instead, a cold peace has emerged...for now. 4/5
In a rare public sign of dissent, a Saraya al-Salam fighter publicly criticized its leader Tahseen al-Hameedawi for not having the courage to order an all-out assault on the IZ, implying that his poor orders led to their failure & calling for al-Hameedawi to be replaced. 5/5 🧵
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