Thread by @jimstinson

For what it is worth, the margin of victory for every FL gov and presidential race back to 2010:

SCOTT #FLGOV - 2010 - 62K
OBAMA PRES - 2012 - 73K (Dem tide)
SCOTT #FLGOV - 2014 - 64K
TRUMP PRES - 2016 - 113K
DeSANTIS #FLGOV - 2018 - 32K (Dem tide)
TRUMP PRES - 2020 - 371K

DeSantis' victory in 2018 was against strong Democratic headwinds and Gillums' impressive cash haul of $55M. DeSantis was able to outspend Gillums in 2018. He also pounded Gillums on TV as being too liberal. (2)

But the GOP also held on to their big majorities in the Legislature. They lost no seats in the Senate and 2 in the House. (3)

Trump made a massive showing with a 371,000-vote margin in 2020 over Biden. That augurs well for Gov. DeSantis (R), as his margin in 2018 was one-tenth of that in a very tough race during a "blue tide" year. #FLGOV (4)

In a red-wave year, Gov. Rick Scott was able to double what DeSantis got in 2014, beating Charlie Crist by about 64,000 votes. (5)

In 2022, the Florida Republicans are likely more enthused than they were in 2018. And DeSantis has well more than $100M in his accounts. Also, there are signs the GOP vote has grown since 2016. (6)

Trump got 5,668,771 votes in 2020 in Florida.

Trump got 4,617,886 votes in 2016.

That's a difference of 1,050,885 votes. Many new votes, from new FL residents. And many new GOP votes from both older and newer residents. #FLGov (7)

The issue for Gov. Ron DeSantis is turnout, but his bank account is flush. Open Secrets says he has $172M to be precise, "11 times" what Crist has. And keep in mind there are numerous Republican state lawmakers out there, cranking out the GOTV. (8)

In Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is on the ballot. Rubio finishes strong, and should stir up the Cuban and Latino vote in South Florida, helping #FLGOV DeSantis lift his numbers. #FLSEN (9)

Trump's 2020 surge and FL's new demographics, especially since the COVID migrations, have benefitted DeSantis. The state is very MAGA-friendly and DeSantis has worked the state well. It could be close. But close in #FLGOV now means 30K to 60K. I think it won't be close. (10)