Callie Cox Profile picture
Sep 6 10 tweets 2 min read
Can't stop thinking about the #ElizaFletcher abduction.

Absolutely horrible.
I've been a consistent runner for 8-9 years and I've been hollered at, touched, and followed by people in cars and on foot (two times but still).

It's unsettling every time it happens, but to think it could become the worst-case scenario is really tough to stomach.
(followed by someone in a car once and on foot once, both were horrifying)
To me, running outside is the ultimate freedom.

Just you and the world.

It's awful to be reminded how much that freedom comes with vulnerability.
ALSO.

The victim-blaming is disgusting. Stop that.

We shouldn't have to run with knives and mace (although I'll have both from now on).

We shouldn't have to glance over our shoulders constantly.
We shouldn't have to buddy up or join a run club.

(BTW, nothing against run clubs, BUT they are not an easy solution. I joined one here in CLT a few years ago that I ultimately had to leave with other girls because there was a dude in the group harassing us)
It shouldn't be on us to feel safe while merely existing in public.

(as you can tell, I am really shaken and upset by all of this)
RIP Eliza. Sending all the love to her family.

I don't know what the solution is, but I know that women runners are not OK.
and it's far too common for us to deal with situations that are menacingly close to what she had to endure.

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More from @callieabost

Sep 4
The largest generation alive is finally getting a foothold in the labor market AND getting an outsized amount of policy help after a decade+ of drawing the short straw.

The millennials are having a moment, folks.
Many of them started investing in the early days of COVID.

+ some of the older ones bought homes with a mortgage rate lower than today’s 10-year yield(!!!)
Whoever controls the $$$ eventually controls society — markets, politics, cultural trends etc

The ground is shifting.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 28
WHY MARKETS DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR RECESSION WORRIES ⬇
The way you interpret a market can depend on what *could be* instead of what *is*.

Often, markets anticipate headlines — like a disappointing earnings report or an encouraging jobs number — before they happen.

In the end, expectations can matter more than reality.
History has shown us that’s especially true when it comes to economic cycles.

Check out the chart at the top of this thread.

In the 11 recessions since 1950, the S&P 500 has peaked an average of six months before the economy has entered a recession.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 28
THE Q2 GDP REPORT 😰

⬇️ 2 straight quarters of declining GDP
☹️ Much slower consumer and business demand
🫣 Biggest drag from the lack of home buying since 2010 (excl Q2 2020)
🧊 The Fed wanted a chiller economy, and it looks like they got it
Honestly, this was a super disappointing report.

Based on data leading up to this, I would've expected a much stronger contribution from consumer spending (and maybe from biz spending as well).
Right now, the fear of the future seems to be a much bigger factor than job security for Americans' budgets.

That's inflation at work.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27
THE FED’S JULY DECISION

🏔 75 bps hike
🧊 Spending and production is slowing down
⚖️ The Fed sounds more balanced
🤔 But does ⬇️ spending = ⬇️ inflation?
✂️ And is it enough to stop the hikes?
🔨 Jobs may hold the answer
.@DianeSwonk with a good point on @BloombergTV

"The Fed can't calibrate a recession" (ie it has less control if we do end up slipping into recession)
Powell's first line:

The Fed is working expeditiously to bring inflation down.
Read 22 tweets
May 5
Five quick tips to help you navigate this fragile market

🧠⬇
1⃣

BE PREPARED FOR ALL SCENARIOS, NOT JUST THE OBVIOUS ONES.

A slowing growth/rising rate environment could be a recipe for cheap cyclical stocks to lead.

BUT it may be worth keeping some defensive stocks on hand, should the economy change course.

You never know.
2️⃣

THINK NOW VS. LATER

When bond yields are surging, they’re increasingly discounting the value of future cash flows.

So the market could favor what's working now vs. what could work down the road

Ie you may have to wait longer for that growth stock story to pan out, sorry
Read 7 tweets
May 4
THE FED’S MAY MEETING

🏔 Biggest rate hike since 2000
🧱 Oh yah and we’re shrinking the balance sheet too
🎈 We’re still “highly attentive” to inflation
🛒 Demand is strong and the economy can handle hikes
😬 There are always risks tho, and we’re watching them
oooooo AND Powell just set the stage for more 50 bp rate hikes 👀

we're moving, folks!
(to be clear, markets are prepared for more big rate hikes. and that matters.)
Read 11 tweets

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