Yesterday Ivan Safronov was sentenced to 22 years in jail. Russian liberal media describe him as a "journalist" picturing it as Kremlin's crackdown on political opposition. That's misinformation. Safronov *used* to be a journalist. Then he worked in Roskosmos as Rogozin's advisor
Indeed, for many years Safronov worked as a journalist, first in Kommersant, then in Vedomosti. In May 2020 though he was hired by the Roskosmos state corporation, as a PR advisor of its CEO Dmitry Rogozin
Roskosmos is a defense megaholding, a product of Putin's consolidation of the military industrial compex. Rosatom is doing nuclear warheads, KTRV - cruise missiles, Almaz-Antey - air defence, Rostec - well, everything. Roskosmos is producing ballistic missiles, including ICBMs
May 2020 - Roskosmos CEO Rogozin hires Safronov
July 7, 2020 - Safronov is arrested for treason
Summer 2020 - Rogozin is interrogated as a witness
August 24, 2020 - Rogozin tells he won't fire Safronov until the verdict. Safronov is stilll his advisor
July 15, 2022 - Rogozin is fired from Roskosmos. Putin's adviser Peskov tells that "in a due time" they gonna find him a new job. Now it's September and they still haven't, apparently vedomosti.ru/politics/news/…
September 5, 2022 - Rogozin's advisor Safronov is sentenced to 22 years
Summary:
Media describe Safronov as a "journalist". That's oversimplification at best, misinformation at woest. His last job was at the ballistic missiles producing megaholding Roskosmos. It is highly likely that prosecution of Safronov was an attack directed at CEO Rogozin
Rogozin was probably the biggest PRmaxer in the Russian military industry. That's overcompensation. Of all the top managers of the military industry he was probably the weakest, administrative weight-wise (Chemezov is the strongest). Now he's eaten and kicked out from the circle
Apparently Rogozin lost in the bulldog under the rug. He was stripped of his position as the CEO of Roskosmos and is not likely to return to a position of power anytime soon. I can't prove that they prosecuted and jailed Safronov to "drown" Rogozin. But it is highly likely
Now let's review Safronov himself. Social media are as usually a great source on the political stance and views. That's Safronov's tweet on the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014
Did he end up in Crimea during its annexation by Russia accidentally? Not quite
This Safronov is a witty guy, isn't he?
Just few days later, Ivan Safronov @isafronov called for the nuclear war as a response to the Western sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I think I am starting to get why Rogozin would hire him as a PR advisor
In July 2022 this chickenhawk who used to call for the nuclear war was hired by a major defence corporation Roskosmos, producing ballistic missiles. Very soon he (most likely) fell a victim to the fight between the big bosses, suffering due to his proximity to CEO Rogozin
Now you see Russian liberal opposition picturing Safronov as a "journalist" (he used to be once) who suffered for "doing his work" if not for political dissidence. Rather than because he chose the wrong big boss to work for - which is the most likely explanation of what happened
When you hear the news from Russia, be aware that they're filtered by the Moscow establishment which cares for their corporate interests and privilege more than anything else in this world. What you read is the corporate interest of a parasite class disguised as objective truth
Lamentations of "oppositionaries" about Darya Dugina's death surprised many. But it's not surprising at all. Darya Dugina is a fellow parasite from the Moscow upper class, belonging to the same social circles as them. Ofc they're gonna lament her. They see her as one of their own
Same with Safronov. He is of the same social class, of the same social circles. Thus Moscow establishment gonna picture him in the most favourable light possible, as an innocent victim, rather than as a collateral loss in the bulldog fight under the rug (which is the most likely)
Reading/listening to news from Russia, keep in mind that they have been selected, constructed and promoted by a narrow circle of Moscow establishment, who don't hesitate to use this leverage for advancing their corporate interest and guarding their corporate privilege. The end
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What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.