Post

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Sep 7, 2022 • 30 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X

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Many think we will subsidize our way to renewables, but we won't, for inherently physical reasons. Sunlight & wind are too energy-dilute. Solar/wind projects need ~300x more land, 300% more copper, and 700% more rare earths than fossil fuels, making them prohibitively expensive.

Wind/solar/batteries require: 1,000% more steel, concrete and glass; 300% more copper; and 4,200%, 2,500%, 1,900%, and 700% more lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earths, respectively, than fossil fuels, to produce the same amount of energy, according to IEA and others.

The capital costs of solar, wind, and batteries have been rising since 2017 and, given the energy crisis, are about to skyrocket, and stay high for a decade. Energy today only uses 10%–20% of total global minerals. There's no way its share will rise to 50-70%, as IEA envisions.

Today, 40 CEOs of European metal companies warned of the “existential threat” to the industry due to energy shortages and the "extra raw materials needed to shift away from fossil fuels...50% of the EU’s aluminium & zinc capacity has already been forced offline due to the crisis”

Policymakers insist that taxpayers will subsidize the transition to renewables, but renewables make electricity more expensive everywhere they are deployed at scale, and higher energy costs will make them prohibitively expensive.

https://twitter.com/SecGranholm/status/1567470874298548225?s=20&t=5Qa6aMZUwEtd1NuBfMIgYg

The proximate cause of the global energy crisis is Europe's over-dependence on Russian fuels, and yet Western elites are on the verge of repeating that mistake by becoming dependent on China for the extraction and processing of the minerals needed to make solar, wind, & batteries

China’s market share of renewables/EV minerals is 2x OPEC’s share of oil. The U.S. is dependent on imports for 100% of 17 renewables/EV-critical minerals; for 28 others, imports account for >50% of domestic demand.

China dominates solar and battery production. Minerals = 60%–70% of the cost to produce solar panels & lithium batteries. And China's solar panel labor costs have been very low to free, considering that they have been covered as part of its genocide.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/ban-chinese-…

There is no tech fix. The underlying problem is physical: the energy-dilute nature of sunlight & wind & their low power densities. There is simply no way that energy's share of minerals consumption will rise from 10%–20% to 50-70%, with or without today's energy shortages.

We've known for 200 years that the industrial revolution was made possible first by coal and then by oil and gas. It simply wasn't possible with wood, water wheels, and wind mills. Scholars have now shown, using physical measures, why this was the case.

amazon.com/Energy-English…

"The availability of free energy... explains why the industrial revolution started in Britain, where coal was readily available & firewood already depleted, or difficult to transport, whereas Germany, with its huge forests next to rivers, was much later."

amazon.com/Subterranean-F…

For a much more exciting, humanistic, and contemporary account of energy transitions, check out this 2020 best-seller 😉

amazon.com/Apocalypse-Nev…

If renewables are doomed for basic physical reasons, why do so many educated people believe we will transition to them?

Most politicians are just ignorant. They have been surrounded by professional ideologues who have deceived them for decades. To wit:

https://twitter.com/SecGranholm/status/1567470874298548225?s=20&t=OmV-7q8bmmYIOuD2PXXNKA

But many others are nihilists who have turned nature into a god and have convinced themselves that civilization is destroying it. They are in the grip of a pathological dogma no different from the dogma that grips cult members. They dream of apocalypse.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…

In Europe, politicians are either delusional or nihilistic. The delusional ones think they can cap the price of energy, but that will just shift the costs from ratepayers to taxpayers. The nihilistic ones, like the Greens, seek de-industrialization.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

We are headed for recession and Europe may be headed for depression. Western civilization will be rocked to its very core. Most of the politicians in power today won't be in power three years from now. People will learn the physics of energy the hard way.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/biden-and-tr…

Energy is the biggest story the world. Most of what you read about it in the mainstream news media is misinformation. I am traveling the world to get to the bottom of the crisis. Please consider subscribing to my Substack to stay informed.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…

"Amazon experienced “critical fire” in at least 6 of its 47 sites with solar... By June last year, all of Amazon’s U.S. operations with solar had to be taken offline.... Those details didn’t show up in Amazon’s 100-page sustainability report"

cnbc.com/2022/09/01/ama…

Change is coming

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…

“Many solar panels are already winding up in landfills, where in some cases, they could contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium and cadmium…. it costs roughly $20 to $30 to recycle a panel versus $1 to $2 to send it to a landfill.”

People say innovation will save renewables, but their underlying problem is physical. The dilute nature of sunlight and wind means they will always require 300x more land, 300% more copper, 700% more rare earths than nuclear or natural gas.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…

Places with a lot of renewables are reaching their limits. The amount of zero-carbon electricity California generated *declined* 10% over the last decade. In Germany, the total amount of electricity from renewables *declined* in 2021, even as overall electricity consumption rose.

China’s global market share of renewables and EV minerals is 2x OPEC’s share of oil. China already dominates solar and battery production. Minerals are 60%–70% of the cost to produce solar panels and lithium batteries. We can't shift those industries to the US & keep costs low.

Energy today only uses 10%–20% of total global minerals but the International Energy Agency says its share must rise to 50-70% for the world to transition to renewables. That's simply not going to happen. It would make energy and everything else prohibitively expensive.

People say I don't talk about solutions enough, but I do, in nearly every single article, and usually for one-third of the space.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/biden-and-tr…

Not to the mention the real world successes we keep racking up

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/how-we-saved…

LFG!

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/green-elitis…

Solar costs soaring

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More from @shellenberger

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Aug 7

https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1952396946595102871

O governo tirânico Lula-Moraes violou tantas leis que é difícil acompanhar. A deputada @damaresalves compilou uma lista de 15 leis que os tiranos violaram (abaixo). O Brasil é governado por criminosos.

https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1952396946595102871

Read 35 tweets

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Aug 4

🚨EXCLUSIVO: ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO

Novos arquivos vazados revelam que o Supremo Tribunal Federal brasileiro usou ilegalmente postagens de redes sociais para encarcerar manifestantes pró-Bolsonaro.

Em 8 de janeiro de 2023, centenas de apoiadores de @jairbolsonaro invadiram prédios governamentais em Brasília, em um episódio surpreendentemente semelhante ao 6 de janeiro nos EUA. Muitos eram idosos ou doentes e não cometeram atos de violência. Ainda assim, todos foram rotulados de “golpistas”, “terroristas” e “fascistas” pelo presidente do Brasil, @LulaOficial, e pelo ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes.

Agora, os ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO mostram que Moraes criou uma força-tarefa de inteligência secreta e ilegal que usou postagens de redes sociais para justificar a prisão de manifestantes não violentos.

Moraes e sua força-tarefa:
— operaram através de um grupo secreto de WhatsApp que criava “certidões” de inteligência ilegais;
— mantiveram manifestantes detidos enquanto realizavam varreduras em suas redes sociais;
— usaram o discurso online como base para a prisão “preventiva”;
— negaram aos advogados o acesso às provas;
— usaram ilegalmente um banco de dados biométrico para identificar manifestantes.

Esses arquivos revelam que os processos do 8 de janeiro foram politicamente motivados e envolveram amplos abusos de poder.

Moraes, servindo aos interesses de Lula, contornou a lei para efetivamente criminalizar o discurso político. Sua repressão judicial excessiva contra os manifestantes ajudou a legitimar a narrativa de que o 8 de janeiro foi uma “tentativa de golpe” coordenada – uma narrativa central para o processo em andamento do tribunal contra Bolsonaro.

A investigação ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO foi liderada por @david_agape_ e @EliVieiraJr e editada por @galexybrane.

CONTEXTO:

No mês passado, o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) ordenou que Bolsonaro usasse tornozeleira eletrônica e o proibiu de usar redes sociais e de se comunicar com outros investigados.

O Brasil agora enfrenta tarifas de 50% dos EUA, uma medida que entrará em vigor em 6 de agosto.

O uso “criativo” de seus poderes por Moraes — sancionado pelo Secretário de Estado dos EUA, @marcorubio, no âmbito da Lei Global Magnitsky por violações de direitos humanos — foi a base para:
— Tornar @jairbolsonaro inelegível por 8 anos
— Censura a jornalistas e tentativas de intimidação contra críticos como @elonmusk
— Prisões em massa e congelamento de bens de pessoas inocentes

Isso é lawfare em seu mais alto nível.

Os ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO vazados revelam novo material do arquivo “Vaza Toga”, exposto pela primeira vez por @ggreenwald e @FabioSerapiao.

“A PGR (Procuradoria-Geral da República) pediu a LP (liberdade provisória) deles, mas o ministro não quer soltar sem antes a gente ver nas redes se tem alguma coisa.”

Nas semanas seguintes ao 8 de janeiro, centenas de detidos permaneceram na prisão — mesmo quando a Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) recomendou formalmente sua soltura. Prazos legais foram ignorados, violando o Código de Processo Penal.

O que defensores públicos e advogados suspeitavam, mas ainda não podiam provar, agora pode ser confirmado. A verdadeira razão por trás dos atrasos era que Moraes estava esperando sua força-tarefa escanear as contas de redes sociais dos réus.

Em uma mensagem de WhatsApp de 13 de fevereiro de 2023, a leal chefe de gabinete de Moraes, Cristina Kusahara, reconheceu que a PGR havia recomendado a soltura de um grupo de detidos, mas Moraes “não quer soltar sem antes a gente ver nas redes se tem alguma coisa”.

Read 19 tweets

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Aug 4

🚨EXCLUSIVE: JANUARY 8 FILES

New leaked files reveal that Brazil’s Supreme Court illegally used social media posts to incarcerate pro-Bolsonaro protesters.

On January 8, 2023, hundreds of supporters of former President @JairBolsonaro entered government buildings in Brasília, in an episode strikingly similar to January 6 in the US. Many were elderly or ill and committed no acts of violence. Yet all were labeled “coup plotters,” “terrorists,” and “fascists” by Brazil’s president @LulaOficial and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

Now, the JANUARY 8 FILES show that Moraes created a secret and illegal intelligence task force that used social media posts to justify the imprisonment of nonviolent protesters.

Moraes and his task force:
— operated through a secret WhatsApp group that created illegal intelligence “reports”
— kept protestors detained while performing scans of their social media;
— used online speech as a basis for “preventative” imprisonment;
— denied lawyers access to evidence;
— illegally used a biometric database to identify protesters.

These files reveal that January 8 prosecutions were politically motivated and involved sweeping abuses of power.

Moraes, serving Lula’s interests, bypassed the law to effectively criminalize political speech. His overprosecution of protesters helped legitimize the narrative that January 8 was a coordinated “coup attempt” – a narrative central to the court’s ongoing prosecution of Bolsonaro.

The JANUARY 8 FILES investigation was led by @david_agape_ and @EliVieiraJr and edited by @galexybrane

CONTEXT:

Last Month, Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) ordered Bolsonaro to wear an electronic ankle monitor and prohibited him from using social media and communicating with other individuals under investigation.

Brazil now faces 50% tariffs from the US, a measure set to go into effect on August 6.

Moraes’ “creative” use of his powers — sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act for human rights abuses by US Secretary of State @marcorubio — was the basis for:
— Banning @jairbolsonaro from elections for 8 years
— Censoring journalists & attempts at intimidation against critics like @elonmusk
— Mass arrests and asset freezes of innocent people

This is lawfare at its highest level.

The leaked JANUARY 8 FILES reveal new material from the “Vaza Toga” archive first exposed by @ggreenwald and @FabioSerapiao.

“The Prosecutor General’s Office asked for their release, but the Justice doesn’t want to let them go before we check their social media.”

In the weeks following January 8, hundreds of detainees remained in jail — even when the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGO) formally recommended their release. Legal deadlines were ignored, violating the Code of Criminal Procedure.

What public defenders and attorneys suspected, but could not yet prove, can now be confirmed. The real reason behind the delays was that Moraes was waiting for his task force to scan defendants’ social media accounts.

In a WhatsApp message on February 13, 2023, Moraes’ loyal chief of staff, Cristina Kusahara, acknowledged that the PGO had recommended the release of a group of detainees, but Moraes “doesn’t want to let them go before we can check their social media.”

Read 19 tweets

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Jul 31

The newly declassified appendix to the Durham report is game-changing. It showed that the CIA believed Russian intelligence memos, which analyzed hacked emails and alleged a Clinton Plan to vilify Trump by linking him to Russia, were credible.

"The CIA prepared a written assessment of the authenticity and veracity of the above-mentioned intelligence. The CIA stated that it did not assess that the above [redacted] memoranda or [redacted] hacked U.S. communications, to be the product of Russian fabrications.”

In contrast to the CIA, the FBI rejected the intelligence and invented flimsy reasons not to trust it. The FBI's dismissive attitude also contrasts sharply with the FBI's credulousness toward any evidence that implictated the Trump campaign.

What’s more, FBI General Counsel James Baker, “unlike his colleagues, did not dismiss the credibility” of the Russian reports that Obama had pressured Attorney General Loretta Lynch to pressure the FBI to drop the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails, particularly given Lynch's other behaviors.

Read 8 tweets

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Jul 30

Victory! President @realDonaldTrump Treasury Dept. has imposed sanctions on the Brazilian tyrant, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is preventing former President @jairbolsonaro from competing with President @LulaOficial in presidential elections next year. This is a major victory for free speech and democracy. Bravo!

For decades, the media have demanded financial sanctions against tyrants. But now that Trump is imposing sanctions against Left-wing tyranny, the media is crying about sovereignty. The hypocrisy is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Witness the propaganda:

“Alexandre de Moraes has taken it upon himself to be judge and jury in an unlawful witch hunt against U.S. and Brazilian citizens and companies. De Moraes is responsible for an oppressive campaign of censorship, arbitrary detentions that violate human rights, and politicized prosecutions—including against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Today’s action makes clear that Treasury will continue to hold accountable those who threaten U.S. interests and the freedoms of our citizens.” @SecScottBessent

home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

Read 4 tweets

Michael Shellenberger

@shellenberger

Jul 28

Trump’s tariff push failed, the media said. But the new US-EU trade deal shows it worked spectacularly well. The US will get 10x more in revenue from tariffs on EU imports, and $600B more in direct investment from EU. Even Trump haters say it’s a big win for the US.

https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1909381097215213650

It was obvious back in April that the aggressive tariffs were a negotiating strategy. A bunch of supposedly smart people acted really dumb about this because they are market ideologues and/or TDS sufferers.

https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1909381097215213650

As we noted back in April, the tariffs are the messy birth of a new world order.

Nice to see the @nytimes finally acknowledge this. The “framework seemed likely to permanently reshape the trading relationship between two of the world’s largest and most interconnected economies.”

Nothing succeeds like success.

Read 9 tweets

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