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Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
@shellenberger
Sep 7, 2022 • 30 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
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Many think we will subsidize our way to renewables, but we won't, for inherently physical reasons. Sunlight & wind are too energy-dilute. Solar/wind projects need ~300x more land, 300% more copper, and 700% more rare earths than fossil fuels, making them prohibitively expensive.
Wind/solar/batteries require: 1,000% more steel, concrete and glass; 300% more copper; and 4,200%, 2,500%, 1,900%, and 700% more lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earths, respectively, than fossil fuels, to produce the same amount of energy, according to IEA and others. Image
The capital costs of solar, wind, and batteries have been rising since 2017 and, given the energy crisis, are about to skyrocket, and stay high for a decade. Energy today only uses 10%–20% of total global minerals. There's no way its share will rise to 50-70%, as IEA envisions. Image
Today, 40 CEOs of European metal companies warned of the “existential threat” to the industry due to energy shortages and the "extra raw materials needed to shift away from fossil fuels...50% of the EU’s aluminium & zinc capacity has already been forced offline due to the crisis” ImageImage
Policymakers insist that taxpayers will subsidize the transition to renewables, but renewables make electricity more expensive everywhere they are deployed at scale, and higher energy costs will make them prohibitively expensive.

The proximate cause of the global energy crisis is Europe's over-dependence on Russian fuels, and yet Western elites are on the verge of repeating that mistake by becoming dependent on China for the extraction and processing of the minerals needed to make solar, wind, & batteries Image
China’s market share of renewables/EV minerals is 2x OPEC’s share of oil. The U.S. is dependent on imports for 100% of 17 renewables/EV-critical minerals; for 28 others, imports account for >50% of domestic demand. Image
China dominates solar and battery production. Minerals = 60%–70% of the cost to produce solar panels & lithium batteries. And China's solar panel labor costs have been very low to free, considering that they have been covered as part of its genocide.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/ban-chinese-…
There is no tech fix. The underlying problem is physical: the energy-dilute nature of sunlight & wind & their low power densities. There is simply no way that energy's share of minerals consumption will rise from 10%–20% to 50-70%, with or without today's energy shortages. Image
We've known for 200 years that the industrial revolution was made possible first by coal and then by oil and gas. It simply wasn't possible with wood, water wheels, and wind mills. Scholars have now shown, using physical measures, why this was the case.

amazon.com/Energy-English…
"The availability of free energy... explains why the industrial revolution started in Britain, where coal was readily available & firewood already depleted, or difficult to transport, whereas Germany, with its huge forests next to rivers, was much later."

amazon.com/Subterranean-F…
For a much more exciting, humanistic, and contemporary account of energy transitions, check out this 2020 best-seller 😉

amazon.com/Apocalypse-Nev…
If renewables are doomed for basic physical reasons, why do so many educated people believe we will transition to them?

Most politicians are just ignorant. They have been surrounded by professional ideologues who have deceived them for decades. To wit:

But many others are nihilists who have turned nature into a god and have convinced themselves that civilization is destroying it. They are in the grip of a pathological dogma no different from the dogma that grips cult members. They dream of apocalypse.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…
In Europe, politicians are either delusional or nihilistic. The delusional ones think they can cap the price of energy, but that will just shift the costs from ratepayers to taxpayers. The nihilistic ones, like the Greens, seek de-industrialization.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We are headed for recession and Europe may be headed for depression. Western civilization will be rocked to its very core. Most of the politicians in power today won't be in power three years from now. People will learn the physics of energy the hard way.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/biden-and-tr…
Energy is the biggest story the world. Most of what you read about it in the mainstream news media is misinformation. I am traveling the world to get to the bottom of the crisis. Please consider subscribing to my Substack to stay informed.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…
"Amazon experienced “critical fire” in at least 6 of its 47 sites with solar... By June last year, all of Amazon’s U.S. operations with solar had to be taken offline.... Those details didn’t show up in Amazon’s 100-page sustainability report"

cnbc.com/2022/09/01/ama…
Change is coming

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…
“Many solar panels are already winding up in landfills, where in some cases, they could contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium and cadmium…. it costs roughly $20 to $30 to recycle a panel versus $1 to $2 to send it to a landfill.” ImageImage
People say innovation will save renewables, but their underlying problem is physical. The dilute nature of sunlight and wind means they will always require 300x more land, 300% more copper, 700% more rare earths than nuclear or natural gas.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…
Places with a lot of renewables are reaching their limits. The amount of zero-carbon electricity California generated *declined* 10% over the last decade. In Germany, the total amount of electricity from renewables *declined* in 2021, even as overall electricity consumption rose. Image
China’s global market share of renewables and EV minerals is 2x OPEC’s share of oil. China already dominates solar and battery production. Minerals are 60%–70% of the cost to produce solar panels and lithium batteries. We can't shift those industries to the US & keep costs low. Image
Energy today only uses 10%–20% of total global minerals but the International Energy Agency says its share must rise to 50-70% for the world to transition to renewables. That's simply not going to happen. It would make energy and everything else prohibitively expensive. Image
People say I don't talk about solutions enough, but I do, in nearly every single article, and usually for one-third of the space.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew… Image
michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-… Image
michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/biden-and-tr… Image
Not to the mention the real world successes we keep racking up

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/how-we-saved…
LFG!

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/green-elitis… Image
Solar costs soaring ImageImage

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More from @shellenberger

Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Apr 24
Brazil's Attorney General just accused me of a "probable" crime for publishing "Twitter Files - Brazil." It's a monstrous lie. President @LulaOficial is persecuting me because I exposed the government's illegal censorship. I will fight back, and win.

gov.br/agu/pt-br/comu…
The @LulaOficial is spreading disinformation and ridiculous conspiracy theories that are easy to debunk, as I did here.

This document is a national embarrassment.

This document exposes Lula as Castro's equal.Image
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Read 5 tweets
Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Apr 20
Brazilian Judge Pushes Nationalist Conspiracy Theory To Weaponize Federal Police Against Defenders Of Free Speech

Brazil’s Federal Police discuss me in new report commissioned by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes

Yesterday, a Brazilian Supreme Court Justice, who is also the President of the Superior Electoral Commission, lashed out angrily at X owner Elon Musk. At an event heavily promoted by Globo News, Alexandre de Moraes claimed that Musk is part of a vast extremist conspiracy to undermine Brazil’s sovereignty and democracy. He claimed that Musk was an “irresponsible mercantilist” motivated solely by profits who had “united” with “extremist Brazilian politicians.”

But there is no evidence of any conspiracy. Musk did not know I would publish the Twitter Files Brazil. Nor did the Brazilian politicians who reacted to them. And many of the politicians and journalists who de Moraes is demonizing as “extremist” are advocates of freedom of speech, including the right to criticize de Moraes.

It’s true that some of the people who de Moraes is censoring have urged a military intervention and have made unsubstantiated claims about elections and Covid. I do not agree with many of the statements made by the people whom de Moraes has censored.

But freedom of speech means nothing if it does not protect people and ideas you disagree with. If we aren’t going to allow people to criticize democracy, elections, and vaccines, how will we ever know if they are bad? If people are spreading false information about democracy, elections, and vaccines, the best way to deal with the false information is with accurate information, not censorship.

The real extremist spreading disinformation here is de Moraes. If Musk were solely motivated by money, then he would not have stood up to de Moraes, which resulted in the Brazilian government halting all advertising on X, the resignation of X’s top lawyer in Brazil, who feared for his safety, and may result in de Moraes shutting down X in Brazil.

He is not simply demanding that social media platforms censor specific content by controversial journalists and politicians. He is demanding that all social media platforms ban them for life. He often does so through secret hearings without the right of appeal.

In fact, it’s all much worse than that. You can’t be a politician or journalist if you can’t communicate on social media. And so de Moraes is not just violating the Brazilian constitution’s protections of free speech, he is also attacking the freedom of the press, destroying careers, and interfering in elections.

De Moraes has acted unilaterally to invent entirely new laws. He is thus interfering and taking over the role of Congress and of the president. That means he is behaving like a dictator.

And now de Moraes has weaponized the Federal Police, including against me, for publishing the Twitter Files in Brazil. The Federal Police delivered two reports to de Moraes, one on April 18 and the other on April 19. The reports consist of a gigantic conspiracy theory, suggesting connections and relationships that simply do not exist.

The reports single me out and suggest it is somehow suspicious that I only have paid for one subscription on X, which is to Elon Musk. But there is nothing suspicious about this. I am paying Musk, not the other way around. And, as the Police report notes, Musk takes a percentage of the revenue of the people who subscribe to my content on X.

And the reports claim that people who de Moraes had demanded be censored had gained limited access to communicate on X, in particular through X’s Spaces, which allows for live conversation.

In other words, de Moraes is totally obsessed with silencing his enemies. It’s not enough for X to have blocked profiles. He also doesn’t want them to be able to use their voice.

It helps that the Brazilian government directly pays the Brazilian news media. The new Lula government increased government funding by 60% for Globo alone. Globo is the biggest media in Brazil. It has been demanding more censorship and running propaganda for de Moraes.

De Moraes is a brutish authoritarian. His censorship is as bad as the censorship imposed by Brazil’s military dictators. He is seeking, as a judge, to eliminate particularly politicians and journalists from public life.

This is hardly the first time de Moraes has weaponized the Federal Police. And in calling Elon Musk a foreign mercantilist, de Moraes is using the exact same kind of nationalist rhetoric that he has attacked his enemies for using.

Why does Moraes have so much power? In Brazil, people told me it was because de Moraes controls so many court cases involving rich and powerful people, including politicians and other judges.

The solution is for Brazil’s Congress to open an investigation, known as a Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI). A CPI can evaluate judicial abuses of power, and that is obviously what is happening here. Under a CPI, Brazil’s Congress could gain access to communications between police and judges or anyone else.

A CPI could also hear from the victims of censorship. It could bring light to thousands of cases under secrecy. And it could discover how social media platforms were compelled to obey or collaborate with the regime.

Musk has taken extraordinary and historic actions to protect free speech. So, too has the US Congress. Now it’s time for Brazil’s Congress to act against the anti-democratic extremism of de Moraes. It must do so before the extremist de Moraes starts arresting his political enemies and shuts down X, and thus free speech, in Brazil.
Aqui está a mesma coisa em português para todos os brasileiros que amam a liberdade e odeiam a tirania

Here are the pages from the creepy Federal Police report, which pushes a bonkers conspiracy theory... My favorite part is the screenshot of my profile page, which includes the banner, "Defund the Thought Police." Oh the irony! 😂Image
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Read 4 tweets
Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Apr 18
Brazil’s high court demanded that Twitter censor, under threat of penalty of nearly US$20,000/day, a state legislator who shared ACCURATE and PUBLIC information.

This is just one case among dozens or hundreds of ILLEGAL and UNCONSTITUTIONAL censorship demanded of politicians & journalists.
The Brazilian high court and electoral court began by demanding censorship of specific content and then segued into demanding that people — including elected leaders — be entirely BANNED from all social media.

This is madness and psychopathology institutionalized at the highest level of government.
The court demanded that a state lawmaker be BANNED for posting this publicly available event announcement.

And, at first, the charges against him were kept secret!
Read 16 tweets
Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Apr 16
This is outrageous totalitarianism and must be condemned by all Western political leaders, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum.

Police officers in Brussels shut down a conservative political gathering while former UK politician @Nigel_Farage was on stage.

This is the kind of thuggish gangsterism that we rightly associate with Nazism and Communism.

Shame on the police and mayor of Brussels for this totalitarian tactic!

"The police document," reports The Telegraph, "suggested speeches by speakers including Nigel Farage and Suella Braverman could lead to public disorder or display racist and homophobic views."

Apparently, the police have, for now, allowed the conference to go on.

But they have blocked any new people from entering.Image
This goes far beyond "cancel culture."

This is the mayor of Brussels, the seat of the European Union's government, preventing conservatives from their Constitutionally protected right to free speech.

The leaders of the Western world have lost their minds.
Here is the dictator-thug responsible for this outrageous violation of freedom at the heart of Europe's supposedly liberal democracy.

Shame on you @emir_kir ! You are no better than the Nazis and Communists who repressed their political enemies!

Read 14 tweets
Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Apr 14
The President of the European Commission is not supposed to interfere in national elections.

And yet that's what President @vonderleyen is doing by spreading what appears to be disinformation about her political enemies in Germany.

What's worse, it appears she has weaponized the intelligence agencies of the Czech Republic and Poland in order to do so.

Neither Von der Leyen nor anyone else has presented any evidence to support their conspiracy theory that Russia bribed German politicians. Every single accused person has hotly denied the accusations.

And in the Politico article below, Von der Leyen even says that her enemies are guilty "Whether they have taken bribes for it or not"!

That makes what @vonderleyen is doing a McCarthyite witch hunt.

It is illegal for politicians to weaponize their national intelligence agencies and interfere in national elections.

There needs to be an immediate investigation into Von der Leyen and the intelligence agencies of Czech Republic and Poland are doing.

Voice of Europe must also make a clear statement as to what is happening, where its money is from, and who it has paid.

I am horrified by Putin and his violent war in Ukraine. I am no fan of AfD.

But the weaponization of intelligence agencies to demonize political enemies, interfere in elections, and demand censorship by social media platforms is totalitarianism, and must be denounced.Image
Von der Leyen's election interference may also be related to a disinformation operation by the French military it announced in February. Back then, French military officials claimed that “websites” were promoting “an anti-French narrative.” Then, as now, they made without any arrests or prosecutions, which likely means they do not have any evidence of criminal activity.

And both NATO-funded and government-funded NGOs are working with government bodies to interfere in German elections. Their “influence operation” aims to keep Germany in line with American foreign policy objectives and undermine the European peace movement. The evidence suggests that European intelligence agencies and NATO are breaking domestic EU laws against foreign election interference.

“We don't even know what Voice of Europe is,” a spokesperson for former Czech President Vaclav Klaus told Public.

Read 5 tweets
Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Apr 9
O governo brasileiro quer censurar as teorias da conspiração e ainda assim aqui está, espalhando teorias da conspiração: " O governo brasileiro suspeita que os ataques de Elon Musk ao ministro Alexandre de Moraes e agora também diretamente ao presidente Lula estão sendo feitos em cooperativa com deputados bolsonaristas..." relata a CNN.

A CNN publicou este segmento embora admitisse que “Ainda não temos provas sobre isso, está sendo investigado”.

Boa sorte em encontrar evidências porque não há nenhuma!

Fui convidado há muitos meses para palestrar no Fórum pela Liberdade no Rio Grande do Sul. Antes de chegar, meus colegas jornalistas brasileiros, David Agape e Eli Viera, me pediram para ver se havia algum arquivo do Twitter no Brasil.

Olhei e descobri que havia. O que descobrimos nos chocou: Alexandre de Moraes e outros funcionários do governo ameaçaram processar criminalmente o advogado do Twitter no Brasil se ele não entregasse informações *privadas* e *pessoais*, incluindo números de telefone das pessoas e suas mensagens diretas pessoais!

Publiquei os Arquivos do Twitter logo após desembarcar em Porto Alegre.

*Ninguém* além de David, Eli e mais um colega meu sabia que eu iria publicar o Twitter Files Brasil.

Depois que ficou claro que muitos brasileiros estavam interessados em falar comigo sobre os Arquivos do Twitter, adiei em uma semana meu retorno aos EUA. Depois que decidi fazer isso, o Diputado Federal Marcel Van Hattem cancelou a sua viagem há muito planejada a Bruxelas.

Conheci Van Hattem em Londres no ano passado, numa conferência, e ele estava no Fórum pela Liberdade, em Porto Alegre. Aceitei com gratidão a oferta de Van Hattem de ser apresentado a diversas pessoas que ele conhecia no Brasil.

É isso. Essa é toda a “coordenação”. Se a CNN tivesse feito o seu trabalho, poderia ter aprendido tudo isto comigo antes de publicar a sua “desinformação”. Na verdade, a CNN me entrevistou há duas noites e contei aos dois repórteres como surgiu o Twitter Files – Brasil. Aparentemente, os repórteres da CNN não conversam entre si.

Aparentemente, a CNN também não fez o dever de casa com Elon Musk. Com Elon, o que você vê é o que você obtém. Ele respondeu publicamente ao Twitter Files Brasil. Não falamos sobre eles nem nos correspondemos sobre eles. Ele ouviu falar deles no mesmo momento em que o mundo ouviu falar deles.

Será realmente tão difícil acreditar que os políticos que foram censurados tenham respondido em X a mais provas das exigências de censura de Moraes? Que idiota.

Estou tentando ser gentil com isso, mas com o segmento abaixo, a CNN não está se comportando como uma mídia de notícias justa e equilibrada. Está se comportando como um teórico da conspiração irresponsável, carregando água para o governo Lula.

Pelo menos você não me verá exigindo que o governo censure a CNN.
@CNNBrasil @raquellandim @LulaOficial @marcelvanhattem
@CNNBrasil @raquellandim @LulaOficial @marcelvanhattem .@CNNBrasil deveria retirar esta propaganda governamental e desinformação e pedir desculpas a todos os envolvidos, principalmente aos dois repórteres que me entrevistaram há duas noites e que sabem que este segmento é uma besteira.

Read 8 tweets

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