Thread by @shellenberger

Many think we will subsidize our way to renewables, but we won't, for inherently physical reasons. Sunlight & wind are too energy-dilute. Solar/wind projects need ~300x more land, 300% more copper, and 700% more rare earths than fossil fuels, making them prohibitively expensive.

Wind/solar/batteries require: 1,000% more steel, concrete and glass; 300% more copper; and 4,200%, 2,500%, 1,900%, and 700% more lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earths, respectively, than fossil fuels, to produce the same amount of energy, according to IEA and others.

The capital costs of solar, wind, and batteries have been rising since 2017 and, given the energy crisis, are about to skyrocket, and stay high for a decade. Energy today only uses 10%–20% of total global minerals. There's no way its share will rise to 50-70%, as IEA envisions.

Today, 40 CEOs of European metal companies warned of the “existential threat” to the industry due to energy shortages and the "extra raw materials needed to shift away from fossil fuels...50% of the EU’s aluminium & zinc capacity has already been forced offline due to the crisis”

Policymakers insist that taxpayers will subsidize the transition to renewables, but renewables make electricity more expensive everywhere they are deployed at scale, and higher energy costs will make them prohibitively expensive.

https://twitter.com/SecGranholm/status/1567470874298548225?s=20&t=5Qa6aMZUwEtd1NuBfMIgYg

The proximate cause of the global energy crisis is Europe's over-dependence on Russian fuels, and yet Western elites are on the verge of repeating that mistake by becoming dependent on China for the extraction and processing of the minerals needed to make solar, wind, & batteries

China’s market share of renewables/EV minerals is 2x OPEC’s share of oil. The U.S. is dependent on imports for 100% of 17 renewables/EV-critical minerals; for 28 others, imports account for >50% of domestic demand.

China dominates solar and battery production. Minerals = 60%–70% of the cost to produce solar panels & lithium batteries. And China's solar panel labor costs have been very low to free, considering that they have been covered as part of its genocide.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/ban-chinese-…

There is no tech fix. The underlying problem is physical: the energy-dilute nature of sunlight & wind & their low power densities. There is simply no way that energy's share of minerals consumption will rise from 10%–20% to 50-70%, with or without today's energy shortages.

We've known for 200 years that the industrial revolution was made possible first by coal and then by oil and gas. It simply wasn't possible with wood, water wheels, and wind mills. Scholars have now shown, using physical measures, why this was the case.

amazon.com/Energy-English…

"The availability of free energy... explains why the industrial revolution started in Britain, where coal was readily available & firewood already depleted, or difficult to transport, whereas Germany, with its huge forests next to rivers, was much later."

amazon.com/Subterranean-F…

For a much more exciting, humanistic, and contemporary account of energy transitions, check out this 2020 best-seller 😉

amazon.com/Apocalypse-Nev…

If renewables are doomed for basic physical reasons, why do so many educated people believe we will transition to them?

Most politicians are just ignorant. They have been surrounded by professional ideologues who have deceived them for decades. To wit:

https://twitter.com/SecGranholm/status/1567470874298548225?s=20&t=OmV-7q8bmmYIOuD2PXXNKA

But many others are nihilists who have turned nature into a god and have convinced themselves that civilization is destroying it. They are in the grip of a pathological dogma no different from the dogma that grips cult members. They dream of apocalypse.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…

In Europe, politicians are either delusional or nihilistic. The delusional ones think they can cap the price of energy, but that will just shift the costs from ratepayers to taxpayers. The nihilistic ones, like the Greens, seek de-industrialization.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

We are headed for recession and Europe may be headed for depression. Western civilization will be rocked to its very core. Most of the politicians in power today won't be in power three years from now. People will learn the physics of energy the hard way.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/biden-and-tr…

Energy is the biggest story the world. Most of what you read about it in the mainstream news media is misinformation. I am traveling the world to get to the bottom of the crisis. Please consider subscribing to my Substack to stay informed.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…

"Amazon experienced “critical fire” in at least 6 of its 47 sites with solar... By June last year, all of Amazon’s U.S. operations with solar had to be taken offline.... Those details didn’t show up in Amazon’s 100-page sustainability report"

cnbc.com/2022/09/01/ama…

Change is coming

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…

“Many solar panels are already winding up in landfills, where in some cases, they could contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium and cadmium…. it costs roughly $20 to $30 to recycle a panel versus $1 to $2 to send it to a landfill.”

People say innovation will save renewables, but their underlying problem is physical. The dilute nature of sunlight and wind means they will always require 300x more land, 300% more copper, 700% more rare earths than nuclear or natural gas.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…

Places with a lot of renewables are reaching their limits. The amount of zero-carbon electricity California generated *declined* 10% over the last decade. In Germany, the total amount of electricity from renewables *declined* in 2021, even as overall electricity consumption rose.

China’s global market share of renewables and EV minerals is 2x OPEC’s share of oil. China already dominates solar and battery production. Minerals are 60%–70% of the cost to produce solar panels and lithium batteries. We can't shift those industries to the US & keep costs low.

Energy today only uses 10%–20% of total global minerals but the International Energy Agency says its share must rise to 50-70% for the world to transition to renewables. That's simply not going to happen. It would make energy and everything else prohibitively expensive.

People say I don't talk about solutions enough, but I do, in nearly every single article, and usually for one-third of the space.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renew…

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-…

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/biden-and-tr…

Not to the mention the real world successes we keep racking up

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/how-we-saved…

LFG!

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/green-elitis…

Solar costs soaring