Available inventory of homes for sale is now declining for the season.

553,000 single family homes on the market.

Prices ticking down too.

This week's (belated!) @AltosResearch real estate market update 🧵📽️👇

1/6 Image
We'll quite obviously finish 2022 with fewer than 500,000 single family homes on the market.

Will homeowners *ever* unload their amazing investments?!

Buyers will face a pretty severe shortage again next year 😰

2/6 Image
Home prices are ticking down.

Median price of single family homes in the US is $440,000 this week.

Seasonal declines in prices will continue through the end of the year.

We'll end 2022 with about 10% home price gains over 2021.

3/6 Image
Price reductions show weakness in buyer demand.

The percent of homes that have taken a price cut from original list price climbed over 40% now.

Price reductions will keep climbing through October.

If we reach 45%, that'll be quite bearish for home prices in 2023.

4/6 Image
Our immediate sales tracker has become more useful in showing how few properties are hitting the market each week now.

It's kinda incredible how abruptly sellers hit the brakes.

It's Labor Day week so we'll have fewer still new listings in next week's data.

5/6 Image
Here's the video with the detail on how inventory of homes for sale is declining.

What a surprise from even just a few weeks ago.

We'll end the year with fewer than 500k homes on the market. Wild.



6/6

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More from @mikesimonsen

Aug 15
Will home buyers ever get that bargain market they've been waiting for?

Looking less likely, TBH

Available inventory of unsold single family homes rose 1% this week to 550k.

Supply just isn't increasing enough

This week's @AltosResearch real estate market data 🧵📽️👇

1/6
Inventory is still rising but rising less even than last year at this time

Looks now like we'll peak at 600k and finish the year at maybe 525k single family homes on the market

We revised this projection down a bit from just a few weeks ago

2/6
Home prices holding steady in most of the US

Median price of single family homes is $449,000

Expect weekly downticks in pricing from here

We'll end the year with roughly 10% home price appreciation

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Aug 8
Will the real estate market see a soft landing? It's starting to look like that!

Inventory growth is slowing

544,000 single family homes on the market

Less than 1% more than last week

This week's @AltosResearch real estate market data 🧵📽️👇

1/7 Image
If we look at the same data in YoY format, we can see how the slope has changed in the last few weeks.

Even allowing for decent jumps in inventory weekly in August, we'll still end the year with only 535k houses on the market.

Do we have to revise this forecast DOWN?!

2/7 Image
You can see the abrupt change in new listings volume after July 4th week.

Fewer immediate sales, of course, the voracious demand is gone. That's the light red portion of each bar each week.

But also fewer new listings. Homeowners are secure, no one needs to panic sell.

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 25
Inventory growth sure looks to be slowing

Still a lot of homes hitting the market for July, but 3% more per week down from 6-8% in June

525,000 single family homes on the market

All the details in this week's @AltosResearch real estate market video

📽️🧵👇

1/6
To end the year with more than 550,000 homes on the market, we'd need to be posting record breaking weeks now. We're not.

Each bar here is a week of inventory change. The brown section are the forecasts for each week thru end of 2022.

5-6 more weeks of pretty big gains.

2/6
Prices are stable too.

Median price of single family homes in the US is $450,000 this week.

The price of the new listings ticked up to $408,000.

If the market were in worse shape, I'd expect those new listings to be dropping faster.

Fewer bidding wars though!

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
Is the inventory spike starting to slow?

Where does that leave the real estate market for 2023?

Exploring those questions in this week's @AltosResearch video.

Inventory rose 3.6% this week to 509,000 SFR.

30% more homes on the market than last year.

🧵📽️👇
1/7
Expect 5-7 more big inventory increase weeks this summer

On our way to start 2023 with approx 535,000 homes available

Buyers will have more selection, but not a *lot*

2/6
Home prices are just starting to tick down for the season.

Median price of single family homes in the US is $451,000 this week.

The price of the new listings is moving down quickly to $401k and something to keep an eye on for future transaction price changes.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jul 11
Median price of single family homes in the US ticked down to $450,000 over the holiday week.

Also watching an important signal: homes that get re-listed after falling out of contract.

Those are the headlines in this week's @AltosResearch real estate market video. 📽️🧵👇

1/7 Image
Available inventory of single family homes rose 3.25% this week to 491,000

That's 31% more than last year at this time

But still half of 2019

Buyers each week have more selection, but still not a lot.

2/7 Image
You can see new inventory being pulled forward. Anyone thinking of selling this year is rushing to do it quickly.

New listings volume usually dips over the July 4 week. Not this year.

Still, this is not a *flood* of new inventory. Not unreasonable amounts. Just more.

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 6
Price reductions! That's the story of the US real estate market now.

While still fewer than normal, more sellers are cutting prices every day. We talk about what it means in this week's @AltosResearch market video.

Up to 24.1% of the market with price cuts.

📽️🧵👇
1/7
Available inventory of unsold single family homes rose 3% this week to 375,000. It was the holiday week so a little pause in the action.

More inventory than last year. Still way fewer than normal. Climbing quickly but not scarily. This is good.

2/7
Immediate sales have been the defining characteristic of the pandemic real estate boom. This week had the fewest immediate sales since winter, clearly the market has shifted.

Still 23,000 homes got listed and went into contract essentially immediately.

3/7
Read 8 tweets

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