1/ Late to this, but glad to see the Macron documentary broadcast late June finally gets the attention it rightfully deserves. This documentary is pure gold. A thread. 🧵
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1567518365761011712
2/ Initially a documentary about the French Presidency of the European Council from Jan to Jun 2022, it morphed into something else as the war unfolded. We got raw footages of Macron’s reactions in the weeks before and after the war.
3/ Disclaimer: the subtitles ARE NOT perfect but we have to thank this YouTuber.
If you’re in France, it’s still available on FTV platform: mobile.france.tv/documentaires/…
If you’re in France, it’s still available on FTV platform: mobile.france.tv/documentaires/…
4/ Feb 2 - Macron's obsession of a world war
(Far from being optimistic before his visit to Moscow as some suggested at the time)
(Far from being optimistic before his visit to Moscow as some suggested at the time)
5/ Feb 7 - Impressions after THAT 5-hour Moscow meeting.
"When I say the situation is hotter than it was in 2008 or 2014, I weigh my words"
(Again, not super optimistic)
"When I say the situation is hotter than it was in 2008 or 2014, I weigh my words"
(Again, not super optimistic)
6/ Feb 20 - The "dance".
In the largely commented WaPo piece, it was suggested that Emmanuel Bonne was happy he secured a breakthrough.
In the largely commented WaPo piece, it was suggested that Emmanuel Bonne was happy he secured a breakthrough.
7/ In reality.
Bonne: "the only risk, of course, is to be denied in fact very quickly, since the Americans are still passing along all sorts of information that tells us that the Russians are basically not changing their posture."
Bonne: "the only risk, of course, is to be denied in fact very quickly, since the Americans are still passing along all sorts of information that tells us that the Russians are basically not changing their posture."
8/ Macron replies: "it's valuable because it shows that we are making our best efforts" It protects us if people are saying you’ve been dragged by the allies. We will say ’no, we didn’t. The guy is just lying.’”
9/ THIS. IS. KEY.
Do not underestimate the level of anti-🇺🇸 sentiment in 🇫🇷. I absolutely believe there would NOT have been wide support at home 🇫🇷 for the sanctions if Macron hadn't made his best efforts at a diplomatic solution.
Do not underestimate the level of anti-🇺🇸 sentiment in 🇫🇷. I absolutely believe there would NOT have been wide support at home 🇫🇷 for the sanctions if Macron hadn't made his best efforts at a diplomatic solution.
10/ Emmanuel Bonne doubling down on Putin’s lies on the same day: “Lie is part of Putin’s play. It is up to us to be more clever. So every time, we push further. Today, we are not going to make them say ‘summit’, but tomorrow we will. Perhaps.”
11/ Feb 22 - Macron justifies his stance to Boris Johnson.
Macron: “I think we were right to negotiate (…) Let’s be clear altogether: none of us was ready and is still ready to go to Ukraine and send its troops to Ukraine. Let’s be honest with ourselves & with the Ukrainians.”
Macron: “I think we were right to negotiate (…) Let’s be clear altogether: none of us was ready and is still ready to go to Ukraine and send its troops to Ukraine. Let’s be honest with ourselves & with the Ukrainians.”
12/ Feb 23 - Taking the temperature & sending weapons
Macron to Zelensky: “Our army will provide the material you asked for. Will be sent tomorrow by plane to Kyiv. But I’m ready, in conjunction with the other Europeans, to do more. To do so, you have to give me a precise list.”
Macron to Zelensky: “Our army will provide the material you asked for. Will be sent tomorrow by plane to Kyiv. But I’m ready, in conjunction with the other Europeans, to do more. To do so, you have to give me a precise list.”
13/ Feb 24 - Truly the most remarkable scene (to me), Macron worrying about Zelensky’s safety
Macron: Are you in security yourself?
Zelensky: I think so.
Macron: Are you sure or you think so?
Zelensky: I think so. I’m sure. I think nobody is in safety in Kyiv.
Macron: Are you in security yourself?
Zelensky: I think so.
Macron: Are you sure or you think so?
Zelensky: I think so. I’m sure. I think nobody is in safety in Kyiv.
14/ The Macron-Putin phone diplomacy
The documentary puts well into context the now infamous phone call diplomacy. Each time, it was an opportunity for Macron to address *specific issues*.
The documentary puts well into context the now infamous phone call diplomacy. Each time, it was an opportunity for Macron to address *specific issues*.
15/ Call on Feb 28: right after Putin had put his nuclear deterrent capabilities on high alert.
(Look at the sheer panic on the most watched cable news network in France)
(Look at the sheer panic on the most watched cable news network in France)
16/ Call on March 6: emphasis on nuclear safety and request for IAEA coordination
https://twitter.com/elysee/status/1500501262491598848?s=46&t=0OVMS4PKTetcqfuwFoP4Dg
17/ This was after Macron’s call to the IAEA Director General.
18/ It eventually led to the IAEA mission last week. A rare diplomatic win for Macron.
https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1567145767940358144?s=46&t=tqeRkUjV4U1lSj9nwJbHXQ
19/ Calls on March 18, 21, 22 and 29 were all about Mariupol humanitarian corridors. That failed.
atlantico.fr/article/pepite…
atlantico.fr/article/pepite…
20/ Calls on May 3 and May 29 (latter jointly with Scholz) about Azovstal plant POWs & grain exports
elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
21/ Back to the documentary
March 11 - Divergence btw France & Germany on oil & gas at Versailles Summit
Bonne: “Our anticipation is that eventually, if Putin continues, we will have to accept to pay more [for oil and gas]. We know sanctions hurt him and we know hurt us.”
March 11 - Divergence btw France & Germany on oil & gas at Versailles Summit
Bonne: “Our anticipation is that eventually, if Putin continues, we will have to accept to pay more [for oil and gas]. We know sanctions hurt him and we know hurt us.”
22/ March 11 - The PEAK Macron Scene
All you need to know to understand why Macron is such a divisive figure in France here:
Loses his temper. Abruptly orders the staff to follow the protocol. Casually makes a joke about 25/26 heads of government surrounded by his boys club.
All you need to know to understand why Macron is such a divisive figure in France here:
Loses his temper. Abruptly orders the staff to follow the protocol. Casually makes a joke about 25/26 heads of government surrounded by his boys club.
23/ Time gap:
The French elections are absolutely not covered in this documentary. One important side of the story is missing. Maybe too sensitive for Macron’s team.
So there’s nothing between March 11 and June 16.
The French elections are absolutely not covered in this documentary. One important side of the story is missing. Maybe too sensitive for Macron’s team.
So there’s nothing between March 11 and June 16.
24/ June 16 - Macron on his humiliation remarks
Macron: I was talking about the outcome.
Q: But why now?
Macron: (…) There is a risk of a potential confusions about the positions. We are here to help Ukraine to win. We are not here to fight nor annihilate Russia.
Macron: I was talking about the outcome.
Q: But why now?
Macron: (…) There is a risk of a potential confusions about the positions. We are here to help Ukraine to win. We are not here to fight nor annihilate Russia.
25/ Macron: “What matters to me is to try to ensure the conflict does not expand, that Ukraine manages to stop it and regain control and that Europeans remain united. That has been my position from the very beginning.”
26/ Macron: “I don’t want to have an East/West divide and leave some countries on the side of the road. That’s the key. That’s how we will get European unity. We can do it. We demonstrated we can during Covid.”
27/ June 16 - Lucid about EU unity
Macron: There is still much work to do. We are not done. There is still much work to do.
Q: I sense you are worried.
Macron: There is still much work to do. We are not done. There is still much work to do.
Q: I sense you are worried.
28/ Macron: “Yes, I am worried. I am worried about the women and men in Ukraine (…) how our Europe will be able to hold in the long run and take the right decisions.”
/END
/END
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