Czech manufacturer TDZ Turn posted this hilarious public statement on their website. They were triggered because Yale researchers led by @JeffSonnenfeld included them into the list of Western companies continuing to operate in Russia.
TDZ Turn seem to be really scared. Why?🧵
We never operated in Russia directly. We do not have business contacts there. After annexation of Crimea we limited our operations to the minimum and (God forbid!) didn't work with sanctioned companies
Our conscience is clear. Unlike that of the American Yale University
Why is TDZ Turn so triggered? Well, because they helped to build the Russian nuclear arsenal. Russian ICBM and SLBM production is concentrated in Roskosmos megaholding or more specifically in its two sub-holdings:
JSC Krasnoyarsk Machine Building Plant (Krasmash) is the key manufacturer of missiles within the JSC Makeyev Design Bureau Structure. Basically it is *the* bottleneck in Russian liquid propellant ballistic missiles production, such as the SLBM Sineva or ICBM Sarmat
Russian administrative culture is anniversary-centric. Ridiculously obsessed with all kinds of anniversaries. Let's open a video on the👏84th👏anniversary👏of👏 the👏Krasmash👏broadcasted on a regional TV channel "Yenisey" in 2016.
On 3:00 you see this
This is a VLC 4000 ATC + C1 vertical lathe produced (who could've thought?) by the TDZ Turn company. Check out their brochure google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j…
How could a Russian nuclear weapons delivery systems producing plant acquire a Czech machine? Trough the KR Prom (КР Пром) proxy company apparently. It looks like TDZ Turn deleted information about this partnership from their website by now. But I screenshoted it on June 27, 2022
Let's formulate our research hypothesis. It looks like the Russian KR Prom company acted as a proxy for TDZ Turn. Technological import for the Russian ICMB/SLBM producing plant seems to have been organised in the following way
TDZ Turn -> KR Prom -> Krasmash
Now let's check it
Let's check the KR Prom -> Krasmash connection first
Fortunately, we have a documental evidence. It is a protocol of the Krasmash procurement commission on purchase of spare parts for the metal-working machines from the KR Prom. January 29, 2018
Now let's check customs data to establish the TDZ Turn -> KR Prom connection
Voila, we see shipments of carousel lathe machining centres, CNC lathes, components for fixing the metal-cutting instruments. Starting in 2013 and finishing in 2019. Well after the annexation of Crimea
Interestingly enough, on June 27, 2022 when I did screenshoting, TDZ Turn openly recognised that main consumers of its machine tools are in Middle Europe and in Russia
In Russia = in Russian military industry. It consumes almost all of the industrial equipment in the country
According to Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the largest Russian defence megaholding Rostec, 84% of machine tools in Russia are consumed by the military industry. There are few other large consumers in Russia
Russian industrial equipment import almost fully goes for the military needs
This short article published in 2017 on a seemingly crappy website became a starting point for this research. NB: seemingly crappy websites may hide tons of valuable & uncensored data.
We won't stop here ofc, we'll go all the way down the rabbit hole
Actually I may have been unfair to Russian KR Prom calling it simply a TDZ Turn proxy. They're better than that
There is a major "domestic" Russian producer of machine tools ГРС Урал. Let's look up its ownership structure:
49% KR Prom (Russia)
51% TOS VARNSDORF (Czechia)
Let's return back to our 👏 Krasmash👏 84th👏 anniversary👏 video👏 .
2:29 The hell is this? This is the Czech-produced TOS Varnsdorf WRD 150 Q floor type horizontal boring machine. It is most probably imported
And yet, Krasmash could've potentially "import substitute" this kind of equipment, switching to "domestic production". Because Czech TOS Varnsdorf localised its production on ГРС Урал. So these Czech machines count as Russian for legal and statistics purposes
This raises some interesting questions. Wasn't Bloomberg too optimistic when it assessed Russian import dependency in machine tools at 70%? What do we even mean by Russian machine tools production? Does Russia even have it?
I'll guess we'll find out next time. The end of🧵
PS I think it's time to start giving cultural references to where I am taking my meme templates, etc. from
I think this guy from a Soviet cartoon "Caliph Stork" would perfectly represent TDZ Turn company and its values. Consider using him as your mascot
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In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.
He was completely obscure.
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support
Soon, he was to face elections
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment.
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting ruler
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec
The link is in the first comment
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download
By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.com
Key takeaways:
1. Missile production is mostly about machining 2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise 3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually
That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive process
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality
Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians do
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective
It is the fact
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:
Bloody tyrants rule longer
The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any other