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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 9

@TargetSmart

As we seek to continue to understand the impact the Dobbs decision is having on this election, I have some VERY cool data to share, thanks to our analytics team @TargetSmart, including @BigJoeGarland and @dmetvt.

Most of what we have shared to date has been focused on new voter registration data. Many have asked if registration surges will predict turnout surges. The answer is almost always yes. But today we have the first indications of turnout from vote by mail request data.

Our team has looked at the states with early vote by mail request data, and compared the gender breakdown of those requests to the same point in the 2020 cycle.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 9

It's only 830 AM, but we already have our dumpster fire poll of the day! This one from Georgia. Why is it a dumpster fire? fox5atlanta.com/news/new-insid…

First, there seems to be a strong negative correlation between the amount of transparency in a poll release and how big of a dumpster fire it is. And this poll is more opaque than a black hole. They released no crosstabs, not even toplines, nor even any demogs for the sample.

Second, the limited info they did provide doesn't help. The sample is only 550 respondents, which is tiny for a statewide poll and results in a large margin of error.

Read 6 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 9

Phil Bump (who I think has been producing thoughtful analysis of the post-Dobbs environment) shared a YouGov poll showing men self-reporting that they are more "enthusiastic" about voting this year than women. I have some thoughts on this.

First, self-reported turnout is notoriously unreliable. But this isn't even that. It's self-reported enthusiasm. Which is a tricky thing, especially given the generally positive association with the word. It stands to reason wouldn't refer to their resolve to vote as enthusiasm.

YouGov has polled on self-reported vote likelihood. Here's a shocker: men are much more bold stating their intentions to vote, yet less likely to vote. In '18, 83% of men said they would "definitely" vote, as opposed to only 67% of women. Women accounted for 54% of ballots cast.

Read 4 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 8

I was lucky enough to do a couple of additional on-camera interviews centered around the way the Dobbs decision is reshaping this midterm election. I hope you don't mind me sharing!

I'm likely teetering on the edge of too much self-promotion here (or have already fallen into that chasm) but I share the interviews I've participated in mostly because the reporters have done great work and I appreciate them using their platform to lifting up these stories.

@Newsy

First, this piece from @Newsy by @NewsLiebs includes great perspective from Debbie Walsh, who directs the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. newsy.com/128918

Read 4 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 8

We continue to analyze the surge in women engaging in this midterm election since Dobbs. We'll be sharing updates on several states voter reg data soon, along with early voting data sooner than you'd think! In the meantime, a few big picture observations:

Kansas was the impetus for this analysis and remains the leader with a staggering 40 pt gender gap among new registrants since Dobbs. Many other states have unprecedented gender gaps, but not as substantial as KS.

States with large gender gaps include highly competitive states like WI and PA, and emerging swing races like OH, NC, and FL. But we're also seeing big gender gaps in red states like ID and LA.

Read 12 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Sep 7

I have some thoughts on the NYT piece on the GA Gov race. It's written by two excellent reporters who I respect immensely. But it's mostly narrative driven without much evidence or context. My thoughts:

1) Gov Kemp, as an incumbent, isn't polling where an incumbent needs to be. Of the 6 public polls since July, Kemp is below 50 in 4. The other two are fielded by a high school in Massachusetts and a Republican pollster who badly missed the Dem wins in GA in 2020.

2) On this date in 2020, the 538 model gave Biden a 31% chance of winning Georgia.

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