THREAD: Let's talk about #HurricaneKay and its expected influence across the Southwest! (1/9)
Right now, #Kay is a hurricane with 75 mph winds making landfall near the Baja Spur. It is expected to continue weakening into a tropical depression over the next couple days off the coast of SoCal. (2/9)
The main concern with Kay will be the influx of moisture into the region and associated potential for heavy rainfall. The official rainfall forecast from @NWSWPC calls for fairly widespread rainfall across the southwest over the weekend and into next week. (3/9)
Some of this rainfall will be quite welcome given the ongoing drought, though the rate of the rainfall could cause flooding concerns. This is highlighted by the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday & Saturday shown below. (4/9)
These areas are covered by a Flash Flood Watch, so be aware of the flood risk through the weekend, especially across the Western Mojave and Sonoran Deserts and mountains of SoCal. Follow @NWSSanDiego, @NWSLosAngeles and @NWSPhoenix for more information in those areas. (5/9)
As #Kay moves north and weakens, heavy rain bands will push in from the south, with additional storms breaking out further north into southern Nevada. Here's a simulation of a possible radar evolution from the HRRR Model. (6/9)
How rare are tropical systems this far north in the eastern Pacific Waters? Pretty rare! Shown below are historical tropical paths that have come within 400 miles of Las Vegas. Only a few in the past century, most notably Hurricane Nora in 1997 and Hurricane Doreen in 1977. (7/9)
In fact, outer cirrus cloud cover is already visible over the #Vegas skies this afternoon ahead of the deeper #Kay moisture moving in! (8/9)
Chances for rain around the #Vegas Valley peak on Saturday, but will exist now through the middle of next week as rich moisture is pushed north into the region. Stay tuned this weekend and keep an eye to the sky! We certainly will be! #VegasWeather (9/9)
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"HeatRisk" is a product that takes into account: 1. Above-normal temperatures. 2. Time of year. 3. Duration of heat. 4. Temperature levels directly correlated with heat-related complications (supported by CDC).
ALT: Parabola indicating that in the peak of summer, HeatRisk turns "red" in Las Vegas over 110°. But at the start and the end of summer, "red" can occur as low as 105°.
Saturday's HeatRisk on a map.
Notice the Colorado River Valley (including Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, & Lake Havasu) & portions of the Las Vegas Valley reach Level 3 on a scale 0-4.
Red = Major. This level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
Summer 2024 was the hottest summer on record in Las Vegas, NV. 💥
Stay tuned for additional graphics added to this thread throughout the morning. 🧵
#VegasWxRecords #VegasWx
Las Vegas experienced its hottest day on record this summer (120°F / 48.9°C on July 7th).
Additionally, Las Vegas broke 13 daily records for high temperatures & 26 daily records for warm low temperatures. 🥵
#VegasWxRecords
Las Vegas's 2024 Summer broke numerous heat records including:
🌡️ Consecutive days with:
- Temps 115°F or higher
- Temps 110°F or higher
- Overnights 80°F or higher
🌡️ All Time Hottest Temperature... which was formerly 117°F... then did that again 3 more times.
We keep mentioning "Major" and "Extreme" HeatRisk when talking about the upcoming dangerous heatwave across the Western US.
What does all that mean: A THREAD
#nvwx #azwx #cawx #vegasweather
HeatRisk is an index of risk of heat-related impacts over a 24hr period. It considers:
- How unusual the heat is for the time of the year
- The duration of heat including day & nighttime temperatures
- If temperatures pose elevated risk of heat-related impacts based on CDC data
High temperatures through the weekend will run 10-15 degrees above normal, with Thursday being the hottest day in the stretch. Numerous record high temperatures may be set.
Been hearing weather people talking about rain/storm chances and the prospect of monsoon 2020 to make an appearance next week? Follow along with this thread and we will break down why that's the case... 👀
Ok...ok...it's a little hard to pick out things that zoomed out. Let's zoom into the Southwest US and add some other features. 🛰️ 👀
Nevada is pretty quiet, but Arizona and New Mexico look pretty stormy. What about that big blob of storms in Mexico? These are key! Here's why...
Let's refresh on what the monsoon is and what you need to have a good set up...
The "monsoon" is not a storm, a series of storms, or even moisture in the air. It's a shift in the winds aloft that *enables* moisture to filter in to the arid desert climates of the southwest.