Thread by @RWApodcast

Will try to do a detailed sitrep on Kharkov oblast in the coming days; right now there's just no reliable information coming out. I expect a battle over Kupyansk to unfold over the coming hours or days that will mostly decide the outcome of the Ukrainian operation.

I.e., if they take Kupyansk, it's a big victory for the Ukrainians, if they get pushed back again & lose momentum, their position will become increasingly untenable and the offensive will peter out; this will likely be decisive.

Of the counteroffensive, but a Russian defeat in that area would of course also have strategic implications for operations in northern Donbass.

https://twitter.com/_tabernaerrante/status/1568287410554822657

Right now, Russian reinforcements are pouring in & jumping directly into combat, last night there were heavy Russian airstrikes, which seems to have slowed the tempo of the AFU. I won't post any maps bc even trusted sources' assessments are differing in major ways.

Currently, the question is whether there are enough Russian reinforcements to hold the line + counterattack; in case of success, their task will be to attack the flanks of the AFU offensive & cut them off, in case of failure, their task will be to hold the line around Izyum.

Things to note so far:

- Completely beyond understanding why RU put so few troops in that area - the whole Volkhov Yar-Balakleya axis seems to have been held only by a few hundred National Guard soldiers & Donabss reservists, seems like a military leadership fuck-up

- This is the first major UKR offensive we see that is this audacious & successful & involves almost exclusively NATO vehicles and weapon systems, in addition to the largest concentration of foreign fighters we've seen so far

- Neither side seems to have taken a lot of casualties until last night, Ukrainian troops took over that territory mostly unopposed as Russian forces were simply too few and far away from each other to mount meaningful resistance, eastern part of Balakleya seems to be holding tho

- Losing or capturing settlements is not as important for this battle as for others; the fighting is occurring mostly over roads, highways, logistics, supply routes. The Ukrainians want to cut off/take over these roads marked in green (drew this yesterday so not up to date)