Thread by @maria_drutska

Brief recap:

Mid-July to late August, Ukraine systematically targeted russian supply lines around Kherson, Kharkiv, Crimea, Donbas & other areas. The 80km HIMARS range, and other undisclosed arms allowed clinical strikes. The AFU warned of an imminent Kherson counter offensive

2/n The russians, seeing the strikes & warnings, started reinforcing Kherson with up to 30,000 soldiers. The Ukrainians continued to attack logistics, and exit routes, making it almost impossible for russia to resupply their forward soldiers.

3/n End of Aug / beginning of Sep, Ukraine announced it was going on the counter offensive for Kherson, but that they would not share any info. Pro russia journalists and politicians immediately used this to say that the counter-offensive on day 1-2-3 was failing / had failed

4/n Around the 3rd/4th of Sep, rumours started appearing that Ukraine had made enormous gains around Kharkiv, even though this had never been a stated aim for the operation. However, opsec did not allow for concrete details. Progress was starting to become visible in Kherson area

5/n On the 5th of Sep, it became obvious to all that Ukraine's counter-offensive was moving rapidly in multiple directions, and they had taken Balakliia by complete surprise - rumours started appearing that it too had fallen, and the russians could not reinforce there

6/n On 6th Sep, images of Balakliia started appearing with Ukrainian flags, and the general staff announced that more than a dozen settlements had been freed. At the same time, rumours started appearing that Kherson offensive was on, but AFU was moving even faster than expected

7/n 6th cont: OSINT & commentators started talking about a small town called Kupiansk, which was the key to russian supply lines for Izyum, a city they've occupied for months. russians started to realise the level of crap they were in, and became desperate to reinforce

8/n By the 7th, Balakliia was confirmed to be around Ukraine, huge advances in and around Kherson, & it was clear the russians were unable to reinforce in any way. Stories of 1000+ POWs, 600+ KIAs started coming out. Meanwhile, AFU opened up 2 axes to take Kupiyansk

9/n By the 8th, reports of further progress had appeared on all fronts, and the AFU was rumoured to have taken Kupiyansk, though not confirmed.

russians lost another 650+ KIA, and serious panic started to spread. Videos surfaced of russians reinforcing, but those were fake.

10/n Today, it is certain that Kupiansk has been taken, but the scope of the counter-offensive is bigger than anyone could have imagined. Intense fighting around Izyum, Lyman confirmed, and reports of huge numbers of PoWs coming out. At the same time, AFU advances to Kherson

11/n Meanwhile, there have been explosions in Melitopol, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Crimea, and a whole bunch of other cities, by partisans and the AFU.

russians are unable to reinforce in any area, their weapons are not working, and numerous videos are emerging of their surrenders

12/n The real scope of this counter-offensive is unclear, but it's starting to look like a turning point in this war.

Remember, what you or I can see on the internet is behind a day at least. And from what I'm hearing the situation is far worse for the russians than what we see.

I made a mistake about Kupiyansk because of my language (I thought it is certain to be taken = it will imminently be taken), but it seems that since then it has been taken.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568467570910527489?s=20&t=rUhwbGTG-jyAXaVvTY5cGw

14/n Izyum has been liberated on the 10th of Sep, after a surprise operation by the AFU in the dead of night. russians were surrounded, cut off from all communication and supplies, and after taking heavy defeats, tried to run, and then surrendered.