Scott Tilley 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 10, 2022 27 tweets 13 min read Read on X
⚡️WATCHING:

#CAPSTONE appears to be garnering the DSN's attention over the last day or so. Continuous uplinks with no downlink like the anomaly observed after the spacecraft was released post TLI.

She was scheduled for TCM-3 in early September based on statements after TCM-2.
I'm presently tracking #CAPSTONE on X-band and noting no emissions from it over the last few hours.
DSN NOW just updated and most of Goldstone's DSS antennas are now tasked with #CAPSTONE. Even DSS 14.
DSS 14 (RX) and 24 (TX) are tracking #CAPSTONE presently. DSS 25 appears to be in the bird bath resting position and not tracking the spacecraft but is labelled as tasked to Capstone.
DSS 25 is now tracking #CAPSTONE too, three of 4 assets from Goldstone. DSS 26 appears to be engaged in radio astronomy or system calibration at the moment as it was tracking something in the northern sky not look straight up...
DSS 25 takes over transmission to #CAPSTONE, DSS 14 and 24 apparently are tracking and likely listening. Still no signals here with my small X-band station.
~1925UTC noticed that DSS 14, 24 and 25 are indicating weak carrier signal detection ~-136dBm (DSS14) ~-142dBm (24/25). I'm not seeing anything with my system at the present time. At ~1930UTC the DSN stopped reporting carrier.
Okay this is getting interesting. #CAPSTONE DSN 24 and 25 are reporting carriers again ~1945UTC and then a few minutes later they vanish. Starting to suspect the spacecraft may be rotating slowly.
The next carrier downlink event started at 2147 and ended at 2150UTC based on the last update clock on the DSN NOW website. So the event if real (I.e. spacecraft signal) doesn't appear to be periodic. The signal levels are low ~-150dBm.
#CAPSTONE is heading for LOS at Goldstone. More frequent periods of downlink seen with low data (~8kb/s) rates and signal levels (<-140dBm). We'll see how Canberra gets involved shortly.
DSS 25 has ended transmission to #CAPSTONE as LOS approaches. DSS 24 continues to track presumably listening still. I need to check on ephemeris for Canberra. Looks like DSS 43 and 36 are available.
Looks like @nascom1 is firing up the big brute DSS 43 for #CAPSTONE. Good ephemeris for the hand over as the spacecraft is about 45 degree elevation and a bit east of north. Recall Capstone is 1.46 million km away and a cubesat so it's power and antenna are limited.
DSS 24 has ended tracking #CAPSTONE and parked. Even thou Goldstone may still have a view of the spacecraft the low elevation would cause them to end transmission for RF safety reasons and eventually they would run into mechanical limitations for their lowest elevation possible.
DSS 43 is now tracking #CAPSTONE passively. You can confirm this by obtaining ephemeris from JPL Horizons.
DSS 35 has come online and aimed at #CAPSTONE. Active recovery efforts from Canberra appear to be about to begin.
Lets discuss #CAPSTONE's current status, SAFE MODE.

S/C will be attempting to regain orientation to the Sun and switch over to the low gain antenna system. This would explain the low signal levels and use of the large 70m DSN antennas today. MORE
Here's some graphics of #CAPSTONE's solar panels and antennas. At over 1.46e6 km from Earth the signal on a low gain antenna is going to be very weak. The s/c will be struggling to get itself aimed at the Sun to manage power and regulate it's temperature.

DSS 35 is now transmitting to #CAPSTONE while DSS 43 using it's large aperture an ~6dB advantage over DSS 35 listens.
Back to SAFE MODE topic, #CAPSTONE will be largely in a struggle all on it's own at the moment using it's own systems to orientate itself and stabilize allowing mission control figure out what went wrong and intervene. Which appears to be happening now, D/L being observed!
The downlink seems to have been lost again from #CAPSTONE, perhaps suggesting that something is changing like the orientation of the spacecraft. As you can see from the images earlier there are likely blind spots for the LGAs we could be seeing a slow rotation or tumble.
The fact that DSN is using the smaller 34m DSSs to transmit to #CAPSTONE appears to support @AdvancedSpace's statement that they are in actual contact. I.e. they have enough signal at the s/c to get a response back. The challenge appears to be a weak and unstable downlink.
If #CAPSTONE is spinning/tumbling and can't seem to fully stabilize itself, mission control needs to figure out how to intervene and start a process to correct out the undesired rotation. This could take some time as the tiny attitude control system onboard could be saturated.
Lets take a step back and consider the full picture we have on #CAPSTONE. Assuming the anomolly occurred during North American evening then the spacecraft has been fairly stable for almost two days now.
This implies that they are managing power and thermal stress onboard somehow even if the spacecraft is tumbling. They could be doing that a number of ways. reducing loads and only operating certain critical loads on a periodic basis.
Remember #ASTROBIOCUBESAT? It used the transmit period for it's beacon TX period to regulate temperature. If you cycle your transmitter on/off you also save power. This could be what #CAPSTONE is doing now hence the aperiodic data on DSN NOW...
I think for the time being that #CAPSTONE is in a stable yet perilous state.

Stable in the sense that there is communication and intervention could happen, yet perilous, in that they likely have limited time before power margins are diminished to figure out how to intervene.

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More from @coastal8049

Dec 22, 2023
Update on the Chinese 'spaceplane' monitoring effort. @plugger_lockett observed possible emissions from objects from the 2023-195 launch. Despite using the same modulations it turns out these emissions are from other secret Chinese military sats, raising more questions. 🧵⬇️
Upon fixing a minor timing issue with his ground station @plugger_lockett sent me data from a pass yesterday & I was able to determine that the object being tracked yesterday was in fact YAOGAN-30 X the track of which passed over one of 2023-195. ⬇️ Image
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A telegram post by @roscosmos provides limited information of the status of #Luna25. Apparently, the spacecraft failed to adjust its orbit as planned.⬇️ https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/10535
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Thus far I have no independent observations of the mission to share. That is not without extensive trying to observe it.

So why am I not detecting anything? 🧵⬇️ Image
#Luna25 was launched into a trajectory that is largely only visible on Earth in daylight. Secondly, that trajectory is not exactly known. I have calculated one based on the launch timing and the scant public info shared and used GMAT to find a good direct trajectory. ⬇️ Image
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A follower asked if #Chandrayaan3 could land on the Moon before #Luna25. The short answer is maybe.

As we'll see in this thread changing a plan as complex as landing on the Moon is not a great idea.🧵⬇️
#Chandrayaan3 is presently largely locked into an orbital plane above the Moon. What that means is that it needs to wait for the Moon to rotate under-neigh it to reach the primary landing site that @isro has painstakingly planned to land at. ⬇️
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Aug 3, 2023
#Chandrayaan3 trajectory update 2023-08-02 #2.

Despite my better judgement, I did a TLE update on the Doppler data. The problem with TLEs in these types of orbits is they degenerate fast as the model is not designed to deal with long periods et. al. 🧵⬇️
Image
Image
Small changes in the data or the fit has profound effects on the TLE and the orbital model. But they are convenient. So I offer a couple of TLEs to aid anyone wishing to hunt for #Chandrayaan3. NO WARRANTY offered 😉, look with WIDE field... ⬇️
Data fit to released orbital parameters:
1 57320U 23213.95526600 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 04
2 57320 21.4000 180.4625 9648325 12.6358 39.3505 0.10345282 04
# 20230801.30-20230802.61, 53466 measurements, 0.005 kHz rms⬇️
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First a bit a reference of why we believe #TIANWEN1 will conduct an aerobraking test. This all relates to the #TIANWEN3 Mars sample return mission.
spacenews.com/china-aims-to-…
Aerobraking is used to allow a spacecraft to lower its apopasis by using a planet's atmosphere to decelerate the spacecraft as it passes through the tenuous upper atmosphere of the planet at periapsis at just the right altitude as not to cook the spacecraft and max. drag. ⬇️
Read 13 tweets

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