So we see the war through connected devices FIRST and then we layer on the traditional tropes that explain how war works to help us make sense of what we're seeing.
But I'm not sure that's right given the scale of connectivity and the quantity of data we now produce and consume.
Our attention is framed by these traditional discourses.
But what we can't be sure of is the provenance of the data we're reading. Our feeds are all over the place. They're asynchronous and enormous and they reconstruct our attention in ways that might not reflect "events".
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If I just reply to your thread @jwmeiser then my point will get lost.
it just isn't manoeuvre warfare. And I don't care how many people assert that it is. It isn't. you just have to look closely.
So I can come back to this now.
The reason I think we need to be careful about this is because all we see are the external indicators. And we end up confirming theoretical presumptions rather than testing them.
If there is a chance of their destruction, my own view is Putin will not risk an internal coup but push to use Tactical Nuclear/Thermobaric weapons to reshape the battlefield.
That would require a lot of care managing the narratives and the related escalation ladder. It might mean thermobaric first and watching how things unfold domestically.
But if he can portray this to home audiences as something he’d been forced into doing then he gets to trigger full mobilisation away from a special military operation, towards war and solidify domestic support behind his position.
"it appears that we were right in assessing the small likelihood of a Ukrainian counterattack in the Kherson Oblast. Instead, the goal is to wear down Russians as much as possible, degrade their ability to command forces..."
1/
"...hinder logistics support, & put pressure on Russians living in Crimea and force them to leave the peninsula, at least temporarily."
"However, Ukrainians need to contend now with 20-30 battalion tactical groups in the Kherson Oblast. If the bulk of these forces end up..."
2/
"...north of the river and start moving towards the frontline, Ukrainians may be hard-pressed to respond and be forced to withdraw as the local balance of power will be heavily against them."
3/
In March I was spending a lot of time sifting through people's twitter posts - knowing that the war in Ukraine was actually being posted to Telegram - to see what sort of footage was being posted online.
It all appears finely balanced with lots of arguments swirling back & forth about my TL as to whether more arms prolong or brings the war to resolution.
What we know is the war is breaking economies & will soon force a policy decision that has the potential to divide Allies. 1/
I don’t know what the answer is but watching the politics of division play out on Twitter is certainly helping to blind us to the reality of the problematic choices facing Western allies.
2/
If CEE splits from Western Europe. If EU sovereign debt becomes a challenge. If German energy prices lead to recession & drive further polarisation into EU politics. If Trump is re-elected or SCOTUS action produces more US unrest. If the UK remains hors de combat.