Thread by @michaeldweiss

🧵It's been a while but "Karl" is back -- just in time for his analysis of the Kharkiv recapture. As told to @holger_r and myself:

"It is somewhat surprising that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv came as such a surprise to Russia. Ukraine was clearly concentrating a lot of forces in that area. Russia wasn’t able to react to that."

"Another possibility is that Russia really doesn’t have any reserves at all anymore and that would also make sense."

"The directive that Russian forces had was to conquer Donetsk oblast by Sept 15. The only place to draw forces to Kharkiv would have been from there, from around Bakhmut."

"Russia’s defense lines collapsed so astonishingly fast that even the biggest optimists wouldn’t have predicted such rapid advancement into occupied areas."

'Today it appears that Russia’s plan is to retreat from all of Kharkiv oblast. According to the Russian MoD’s map the troops are present only on the eastern side of the Oskol river. It’s questionable if they will be able to stay even there."

"I think that Ukraine would want to conquer at least some areas there as well in order to completely cut off Russia’s logistics from the north."

"Further to the east there are marshes and forests with no towns. There were no battles for these areas in either 2014 or this year because it’s not strategically important. Ukraine wouldn’t try to hastily reclaim those areas."

"If reclaiming them entailed battles, Ukraine wouldn’t see it as a priority. After Kharkiv the priority is the west bank of Dnirpo in Kherson."

"Russian supply lines are already distressed, they can bring only a little with barges. But Russia still has counter-offensive capability in Kherson."

"I am still optimistic that before the winter the western side of Dnipro will be reclaimed. There’s still around two months until real winter kicks in in the southern parts of Ukraine."

"Russians themselves are very concerned about Vuhledar. It’s the easternmost point of the frontline and Ukraine is building up units there. From there it is possible to cut off the Donetsk-Mariupol highway."

"I don't think Russia will keep a lot of troops in Mariupol. Once you get back Mariupol, you can find a place to target Crimea’s bridges from there."

"But the most important development to watch now is what will happen in the Kremlin. Russian elite will start asking, 'What next?'"

"Retreating from Kyiv they might have been able to cover up by talking about stepping up efforts in the east. But you can’t hide the current manoeuvrers with tactics anymore. It’s total defeat."

"We don’t have much info of what’s going on inside Kremlin. But according to the logic of dictatorial rule, the loyalists will start thinking about how to survive themselves if the situation starts getting crap. Disintegration should start."

"But people surrounding Putin are weak-willed and a weak bunch in general (with the exception of Nikolai Patrushev and Sergey Ivanov maybe). The rest of the gang are not people who can influence or change ongoing processes."

"The decision to back out from Kharkiv oblast must have been taken Friday evening at the Security Council. This indicates that Putin wants to share responsibility. The timing of the two events was too close for it to be a coincidence."

"Without the Security Council’s decision it might have taken a few more days. But seeing how the Russian troops were on the run already on Friday, it wouldn’t have been possible to put a stop to it."

"I’m not too worried about Ukraine overextending. They are mentally prepared to keep the fighting going for a long time. I continue to be more worried about some Western countries that can say that we can’t allow Putin to lose face."

"I’m fairly certain that in Paris, Berlin and among some Americans that idea will not disappear. At some stage Russia might offer to back down to Feb 23. borders and then there can be pressure on Ukraine to accept."

"Luckily, however, the public opinion in the U.S. and German won't support such pressure."