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fred hickey Profile picture
@htsfhickey
Sep 12, 2022 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Poznar has become the "hot" deep intellectual thinker in financial markets with his Bretton Woods III deglobalization and de-dollarization theories that are very favorable for commodities (and especially gold) long-term.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
All the BRIC(Brazil, Russia India &China) central banks have been rapidly building up their gold reserve holdings & some (especially Russia & China) are sharply reducing their dollar exposure. Most Western investors are asleep at the wheel, seemingly unaware of the global changes
When Western investors finally wake up &realize just how badly positioned they are(virtually no precious metals & heavily underweight other commodities) for the potential new world order, they'll have to chase limited supplies at much higher prices than today. Better to be early

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More from @htsfhickey

fred hickey Profile picture
Feb 16, 2024
COT is out. Managed Money (hedge funds &CTAs) cut their net long gold futures position in 1/2 to just 34K contracts, primarily on huge 44% jump in short contracts (attempt to smash gold lower with Chinese absent for New Year holiday week). Didn't work. Gold down only 0.5% ($11)
In addition to Chinese New Year, gold Managed Money shorts also had tailwinds of very hot CPI, hot PPI, rising yields (10-yr. to highest level since Nov.), & stronger $. Still could barely dent gold. Silver UP 3.5% on week even as they took short contracts up 14.4% (net short 9k)
The biggest buyers of gold in the world, the Chinese, will be back next week (see prior tweets on China's "new gold rush") with these traders' positions extremely low (gold futures open interest contracts down to just 412K, down 85K contracts in just 1 mo.- to a multi-year. low.
Read 4 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
Oct 12, 2023
Gold's price eventually goes up in US$ terms, as it has since Fed was created 100+ yrs ago. Currently, gold in US$ terms is in a consolidation period(in yen, yuan& other currencies it's recently hit records) mostly because of massive Western dumping of holdings & shorting futures
While I find this selling to be shortsighted & lacking "common sense," I see no "cap" on gold's price. Over past several yrs., each time futures traders' selling became exhausted (usually they're net short), rallies have occurred & have started from a higher low.
For example, last yr's low(around this time last yr.) was around $1630. Latest low was $1810. The selloffs are met with massive physical buying (primarily from the East),limiting Western selling's impact. In just a few days of short covering, gold hit $1880+, 10% from record high
Read 4 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
Oct 5, 2023
There's not a lack of retail interest in gold in the US. Retail is relatively strong (thus Costco selling gold bars). It's the INSTITUTIONS dumping gold. GLD holdings are down to 4+ yr. low (Aug 2019 level). They've dumped 409 tons (1/3rd of their GLD holdings) over past 3 yrs.
What are the "professionals" doing as they dump gold at a time when we have a completely dysfunctional government, out of control debt&deficits &concerns about funding? Exactly what they did in '99-2000, pouring money into a concentrated number of grossly overvalued tech stocks
Meanwhile, much of rest of the world looks on in dismay at our foolhardiness &buys all the gold we're selling &more. Record central bank buying. Dumping of our Treasuries(particularly China &Saudi Arabia). The Saudis play the same gold game as Chinese -going yrs without reporting
Read 4 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
Aug 11, 2023
Very impressive flat-to-slightly up gold performance today (miners +1%) given 10-yr. bond yield ripping higher to 4.16% & computer algos obviously selling gold futures hard this morning (as they have all week) following the usual gold bounces in Asia. reuters.com/article/asia-g…
As the Reuters story notes, there's "robust demand" from China (gold premiums near 5-month highs) & seasonal demand from Indian jewelers picking up -on schedule. These physical buyers are helping to offset the heavily levered gold paper futures selling in NY & London (cptr algos)
Another terrific COT report showing Managed Money (hedge funds&CTAs)dumping a net 21.4K gold futures contracts thru Tues.(& almost certainly lots more Wed. thru Fri.), hiking their shorts by 28%. Over past 2 wks, their net long position has collapsed by 39%(equiv to 113 tons sold
Read 6 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
May 20, 2023
"Investors" rationalizing paying ridiculous prices for tech stocks -even with virtually all key end mkts. plunging. Semiconductor Industry Association(SIA) reported March industry sales down 21% Y/Y(worst drop since 2009 recession). Meanwhile, SOX index is up 26.5% Y/Y. Why? "AI"
Yet, "AI" is nothing new. AI term coined in mid 1950s. NVDA working on AI since early 2000s. NVDA's CUDA in 2006. IBM's Watson (2011) was going to revolutionize world. "Watson is a question-answering computer system capable of answering questions posed in natural language."
How does Chat GPT differ from IBM's Watson? Same concept, just more advanced. Siri utilizes AI, so does Alexa, as do all self-driving assistance software programs &much more. AI already embedded in everyday life. So why AI euphoria? "Metaverse" "Web 3.0" no longer work for bulls
Read 5 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023
Finally, some "expedited" COT data (thru 2/14). Managed Money(hedge funds &CTAs) dumped 18.4K gold futures contracts (half decreased longs &half increased shorts). Combined with last Friday's data (thru 2/7) total dump is 43.3K, bringing their net longs down to just 41.1K, (-51%)
However, there's more backlogged COT data to come & over next 10 days (thru 2/24) gold fell another $45. Using latest week's run-rate, when gold fell less than $20 on 18.4K contracts dumped, it could bring Managed Money's net long gold futures close to zero& that's VERY positive
Managed Money net gold position could go even lower (net short) but that condition is relatively rare (bottoms in late-2015, Aug 2018 and last Fall's bottom). Means that these wise guy speculators are running out of room to push gold lower & a sharp rally could happen at any time
Read 4 tweets

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