Another Federal Supreme Court Case...But the Sadrists Don’t Want Their Seats Back… 🧵1/7
The Federal Supreme Court (FSC) has scheduled a hearing for the end of September regarding the case brought forth by Dhia al-Din al-Budairi to petition for the invalidation of the resignations of seventy-three Sadrist MPs. 2/7
The political affiliation of al-Budairi is not known. Sadrists have shown private sms asking the lawyer to pull out of the case but he refuses & says that his motivation is to challenge the legal argument that the speaker is the only one who can approve the MPs’ resignation. 3/7
Despite the case, through his mouthpiece Mohammed Salah al-Iraqi, Muqtada al-Sadr has made clear that the Sadrist Bloc will not return to parliament – and in fact has now openly begun to call for their former Tripartite Alliance (TA) partners, Seyada & KDP, to follow suit. 4/7
#RDG assesses that the TS’s withdrawal is unlikely, particularly as the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF) is preparing to hold the first parliamentary session in months after the Arbaeen holiday – likely somewhere around September 20. 5/7
There are some rumors presently indicating that there will be a SCF delegation visiting Hanana after the Arbaeen holiday as well but given the continued “no” approach of al-Sadr, #RDG views this as unlikely. 6/7
We at #RDG view that the FSC would not struggle to find a way to reinstate the Sadrist MPs who resigned in June this year from parliament if there is political consensus to do so. 7/7 🧵
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Last week, #Iraq saw the first coup attempt in decades. A complicated political/religious blow triggered a series of events that brought to a head the rivalry between the Sadrists and elements of the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF). 🧵 1/5
In assessing the sudden social media activity of several Sadrist accounts posting, just before the conflict began, about the coming “big surprise,” combined with the fierceness and overnight duration of the attack points towards an actual attempt to overthrow the system. 2/5
They faced unexpected resistance, especially in the IZ and Basra, which led to a very public statement of retreat. Though the IZ took longer than they’d expected, the mobilization required from their rivals to keep it that way was disproportionately large. 3/5
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani worked his way up the political chain, starting as mayor of Amarah city and subsequently governor in his home province of Missan, he rose through the ranks to become a minister. 🧵1/6
Serving in several ministries concurrently during al-Abadi’s gov, he was appointed as the Minister of Labor & Social Affairs while also serving as acting minister to cover positions left open by the Sadrist withdrawal and Human Rights Minister during al-Maliki’s second term. 2/6
Al-Sudani represents the second generation of the Shia house, though his depth of experience as a minister is likely unmatched – and surprisingly, he has never had significant corruption accusations levied against him. 3/6