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@AltosResearch

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Mike Simonsen 🐉

@mikesimonsen

Jun 24

Late June housing data!

That inventory growth everyone knows about? It’s slowing. Are sellers backing off?

Available inventory of unsold homes for sale grew by 13,000 this week. But that was actually fewer than we’d expected.

Demand though is also notably weak. No doubt about it.

The pattern looks similar to late 2022 when demand was weak, but sellers backed off too.

[video link follows the thread 🧵👇]

1/7

Inventory

- 634,000 single family homes unsold on the market now
- That’s up 2.2% for the week, and 38% more than last year
- We’d expected 2.5% growth for the week, so this was less than expected.
- In January through April inventory grew faster than our estimates each week. In 5 of the last 7 weeks inventory growth is coming in less than expected.

2/7

New Listings

- 72,000 new listings unsold this week
- That’s basically unchanged for the week but is 13% more than last year.
- Immediate sales are down so total seller volume is only 4% more than a year ago
- I’ve highlighted in green the moment in 2022 when sellers backed off. The takeaway here is that there has been no growth in new listings volume for over a month.
- And the result is probably a cap on how much inventory can grow, just like we saw in 2022.

3/7

Read 7 tweets

Mike Simonsen 🐉

@mikesimonsen

May 6

This week’s housing thread! Here's the summary from this week’s @AltosResearch video.

[video link follows the thread]

As inventory continues to climb, the leading indicators for future home sales prices are weakening.

Even as the headlines now show 5-7% price growth over 2023, the latest data points to flat growth in home prices for the full year 2024.

Details 👇

1/7

Inventory

📍600,000 single family homes are unsold on the market
📍That’s up 0.6% from last week and 33% more than a year ago
📍In 2022 inventory was climbing much more quickly than now, so that gap is down to 83%
📍In the Inventory chart below you can see the gains compared to last year’s curve and also to two years ago.
📍Inventory has plenty more to grow this year. This trend is not slowing down.

2/7

New Listings
📍71,000 new listings unsold this week. That’s slightly fewer than last week but still generally rising.
📍Plus another 22,000 new listings already in contract - immediate sales
📍93,000 new listings is 20% more sellers than last year.
📍Even with the big gains in the South, there are still 20% fewer sellers than in “normal” years, pre-pandemic. In 2022, there were 105,000 new listings the first week of May.
📍And that’s why we see this as growth in sellers, but not a worrisome flood. In the New Listings chart below, the gray lines show how there are still not a lot of sellers currently.

3/7

Read 7 tweets

Mike Simonsen 🐉

@mikesimonsen

Mar 18

The Fed meets this week and the market is growing less sanguine about interest rate cuts.

What happens to the housing market if mortgage rates actually go up from here?

Inventory is growing and will continue to grow. Are there risks that supply and demand grow out of balance?

I don’t have ability to forecast mortgage rates, but we do know exactly how the housing market will behave if rates jump or fall from here. That’s what we’re discussing in this week’s Altos Research real estate market video.

[Video link follows the thread]

1/7

Inventory
📍507,000 single family homes are on the market in the US
📍That’s 1.3% more than last week, 22% more than a year ago, and 105% more than two years ago.
📍This week in 2022 was the last of the 3% mortgages. Inventory and rates rose in lockstep starting then. In the Inventory chart below see the rightmost red section that highlights the last two years of rising rates and rising inventory.
📍In the next quarter if rates finally fall, say to the mid-6s, this inventory expansion trend will reverse.

2/7

New Listings
📍There were 59,000 new listings adding to inventory this week, with another 16,000 immediate sales, total new sellers were 24% more than in 2023.
📍In the New Listings chart below, you can see this week’s growth is a bit of an anomaly, we won’t see that much growth next week.
📍You can also see the gray lines showing previous years with 70-80,000 new listings in mid-March. So there are still not a lot of sellers.
📍We expect this trend of slightly more sellers to continue for the bulk of 2024.

3/7

Read 7 tweets

Mike Simonsen 🐉

@mikesimonsen

Feb 26

Monday @AltosResearch real estate data thread!

More sellers, fewer buyers.

Mortgage rates hit 7.2% last week.

Inventory of unsold homes subsequently increased this week for the first time all year.

Price reductions ticked up too for the first time since November.

Some of the home price signals are softening as potential home buyers are faced with higher for longer mortgage rates.

These are the details we’re reviewing in this week’s housing market data video.

[video link follows the thread]

1/7

Inventory

📍There are now 498,000 single family homes on the market in the US.
📍That’s almost 1% more than last week, and now 16% more than last year at this time.
📍This is the first inventory increase of the year.
📍Mortgage rates are up sharply from last year so inventory is too
📍In the Inventory chart below, the red periods are when rates and inventory were rising. The green sections are when rates and inventory were falling.

2/7

Pending Home Sales

📍This week saw 59,000 new contracts for single family homes, that’s 2% fewer than last week
📍The sales rate came in a fraction fewer than a year ago, which is what I projected last week but still disappointing
📍In the New Contracts Pending chart below you can see how sales could come in negative YoY in the next few weeks.
📍I still expect home sales to show year over year growth again by mid-March, due to the fact that there is more selection available now.

3/7

Read 7 tweets

Mike Simonsen 🐉

@mikesimonsen

Feb 19

Monday housing thread!

With mortgage rates now back in the 7s, demand is slowing and it seems like some home price signals are softening.

We have more sellers entering the market than last year at this time. We can see mortgage rates slow demand. And as demand slows, inventory grows.

More supply should lead to more home sales in 2024. And sales have indeed been slowly rising, but this has unreliable week to week. It’ll be important to keep our eyes on the pending sales rate to know if supply is outpacing demand.

These are the details we’re reviewing in this week’s Altos Research real estate market data.

[video link follows the thread]

1/7

New Listings

📍There were 63,000 new listings this week, of which 13,000 are already in contract which leaves 50,000 new listings adding to inventory.
📍That’s 16% more sellers than last year at this time. This is the same trend we’ve been reporting for a few months and a big reversal from last year.
📍While sellers are finally coming back from 2023’s anemic market, it’s still not a lot of sellers.
📍In the New Listings chart below, the gray lines are previous years. See this year climbing, but a lot fewer sellers than pre-pandemic seasons.

2/7

Inventory

📍There are now 495,000 single family homes on the market in the US.
📍That’s 0.1% fewer than last week, but now 13% more than last year at this time.
📍In the Gulf markets, including SW Florida, New Orleans, and over to Texas, inventory is back above 2019 levels.
📍In the West and much of the Northeast, inventory is still below last year, but the gap is closing pretty much everywhere across the country.
📍In the Inventory chart below, you can see how the year’s curve is growing compared to last year, even though the available supply ticked down this week.

3/7

Read 7 tweets

Mike Simonsen 🐉

@mikesimonsen

Jul 24, 2023

Will existing home sales break above 4.2 million? Fall below 4 million?

That's what we're looking at in this week's @AltosResearch market video.

We dive into the weekly pending sales as well as inventory and prices.

Video links below 🧵📽️👇

1/8

There are 378k single family homes in contract.

These are homes that will sell in July, August, September when the transaction closes.

In the weekly data you can see that the pace of sales is holding up, where last year at this time it had started falling quickly

2/8

📍Each week we're seeing 80-90k new contracts (including single family + condos)

📍Translates to 4.2 million annually.

Look how quickly sales stalled last year. They're stable this year.

What we can see now is that the sales rate is NOT increasing. But not falling either.

3/8

Read 8 tweets

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