Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia apparently put on high alert after latest escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Not the best time for a second front tbh.
Bizarre situation: Russia is formally obligated to help Armenia because of the CSTO; at the same time Armenia's government has been alienating Russia for years while trying to cozy up to the West; the West has never done anything to help Armenia; NATO is pro-Azeri bc of Turkey
Armenian political activist Mika Badalyan claims that "With the mediation of the Russian side, a preliminary agreement was reached to begin a ceasefire at 02:30". Rybar says that Azeri sources are denying this.
🤷♂️
"Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin."
RIA News: "Armenia will appeal to Russia to apply the treaty on mutual assistance, as well as to the CSTO and the UN because of the situation on the border with Azerbaijan, according to the Armenian Cabinet of Ministers"
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Putin said "we will show you what real decommunization looks like". Coupled with "denazification" it didn't make much sense ideologically
But considering that ALL Ukrainian power stations were built under the Soviet Union, this threat becomes synonymous with deindustrialization
Demolishing statues and renaming streets is not enough. For a proper divorce with Russia they'd have to return to the preindustrial state because nothing of note was built or developed there after 1991 except for some high quality - and prophetic - post-apocalyptic videogames
There's a Telegram channel run by "Right Sector"-adjacent people, dedicated to doxxing "collaborators" in the town of Volchansk that was recently recaptured by Ukrainian forces. Hundreds of people's personal data & photos have been leaked, death & rape threats included.
Virtually all the people who are being doxxed are civilians. Some examples of their crimes: "continued to work under the occupiers as a teacher or doctor," "said that Russian soldiers did not hurt her," "shared food with the occupiers". All ages, from teenagers to grannies.
Thankfully, many of the recent posts mention that the 'targets' have evacuated to Russia. But still - being "liberated" by the Kiev regime forces is literally more dangerous than being bombed. They know they're hated in these areas, so they're being extra cruel.
Reports coming from Ukrainian sources that Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenchug and Kharkov are experiencing blackouts, possibly after Russian missile strikes earlier that caused sir raid warnings over all of Ukraine
*air
Zaporozhye, Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk oblast, Odessa reportedly also experiencing problems with electricity
Some Ukrainian sources are claiming that the Zmiev Power Plant in Kharkov oblast was hit by a Russian missile strike - this is not confirmed, as of now it's not clear whether the blackouts are caused by the Russian military targeting Ukrainian infrastructure or ZNPP shutting down
The Ukrainians are taking immense casualties, but it's pure cope to emphasize this. They don't care, for the current situation they have functionally unlimited amounts of meat for the grinder. Trading 3000 soldiers for some strategically important space is nothing to them.
Even if they're taking casualties at a 10:1 rate, which doesn't seem implausible in Kharkov oblast rn and was also the case during the Kherson offensive, they can deal with that. This approach works. Their mobilized manpower advantage is ridiculous.
The Russian military would have to commit vastly more troops to change the strategic situation back. Airstrikes and artillery are good, and they're inflicting horrendous damages on the AFU, but they physically cannot hold or take back territory. Futile without infantry
Will try to do a detailed sitrep on Kharkov oblast in the coming days; right now there's just no reliable information coming out. I expect a battle over Kupyansk to unfold over the coming hours or days that will mostly decide the outcome of the Ukrainian operation.
I.e., if they take Kupyansk, it's a big victory for the Ukrainians, if they get pushed back again & lose momentum, their position will become increasingly untenable and the offensive will peter out; this will likely be decisive.
Of the counteroffensive, but a Russian defeat in that area would of course also have strategic implications for operations in northern Donbass.
Reports of Ukrainian offensive movements around Balakleya, as of now no visual confirmation and no details on scale of troops involved
Kherson oblast relatively quiet today, Kharkov oblast very hot. Heavy fighting reported on the outskirts of Balakleya, AFU seems to be applying a lot of force here, there are no details but from what I know about the size of the RU garrison there, they may be forced to retreat...
if reinforcements don't arrive in time. Also, some reports that the Ukrainian HQ in Chuguev (responsible for this part of Kharkov oblast) was wiped out by a RU airstrike