Thread by @jeff_foust

Big launch panel coming up at #WSBW, with executives from Arianespace, Blue Origin, ILS, MHI, SpaceX and ULA.

SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.

Tiphaine Louradour, ILS: both the US and Russian governments could choose to end ILS if they chose, but we believe they recognize this venture has value. (But who will buy Proton launches these days?)

Stéphane Israël, Arianespace: we have a settlement with OneWeb for 6 cancelled Soyuz launches; look to work together on Gen 2.

Jarrett Jones, Blue Origin: last 12 months have been critical for New Glenn; “over the hump” on qualification and plans to get to first launch.

Iwao Igarashi, MHI: found good solution to turbine vibration problems in engine for H3, proved it was effective. First H3 launch now projected this fiscal year (ends March 31); will announce date after static-fire tests in November.

Mark Peller, ULA: making good progress on Vulcan, should get BE-4 flight engines in the “coming weeks” and then send it to the launch site. (Does not commit to a specific launch date for first Vulcan launch.)

Israël: like to end the Ariane 5 with the launch of JUICE in April 2023. Will discuss later this month plans on transition to Ariane 6 next year.

Peller: can reconfigure SLC-41 at the Cape between Atlas and Vulcan in a day or so, enables overlap over the next couple of years.

Louradour: we have Protons at the launch site, ready for payload integration. Hope for much broader reasons this situation will resolve and can engage with community again.

Israël: look for a role in Artemis with Ariane 6 launches of proposed European EL3 lunar cargo lander; hope to convince NASA and ESA to go beyond that.

Ochinero: Starship launch of GEO communications satellite, recently ordered, will not much different than what we traditionally do for such missions.

Jarrett: first New Glenn launch will be “as soon as we’re ready” but no specifics beyond some time next year.

Peller: have a plan to launch Vulcan before the end of the year, but depends on s/c readiness. Narrowing down on launch date soon.

Jarrett: still “super early” into New Shepard launch failure investigation. Not prepared to say it’s a problem with the BE-3 engine (which would have implications for New Glenn’s upper stage.)

That’s it for the panel.