Thread by @budapestotc

A bunch of people have asked me to write about the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict since I lived in the region for years and know it well. I stopped following the news months ago, but here you go.

CAVEAT EMPTOR: take what I write (and everything on this site) with a grain of salt.

Scanning Armenian, Azeri, Russian news sources. What I can see so far:

Despite the Russian ceasefire, there are still multiple clashes between Azeri and Armenian forces all along the border. (NOTE: this is NOT Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeris are trying to invade Armenia itself.)

Screenshot from LIVEUAMAP: caucasus.liveuamap.com

According to Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan, during ceasefire negotiations, Azerbaijan demanded Armenia cede territory from the town of Nrnadzor (on the border with Iran) up to Yerevan itself. Source: t.me/armenpress/638…

I'll save the in-depth discussion of this for another thread, but Azeri revanchism was never limited to Nagorno-Karabakh. For decades, Azeris have asserted that Armenia itself is rightful Azeri territory, using the terms "Erivan Khanate" or "Western Azerbaijan."

"...in 1918, Yerevan was granted to the Armenians. It was a great mistake. The khanate of Iravan (Yerevan) was the Azeri territory, the Armenians were guests here." - Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, 2008

web.archive.org/web/2009061204…

Some sources (can't find them) have speculated that Armenia is attempting to default on its treaty obligations from the 2020 war, which required it to guarantee a transportation corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan enclave, hence the invasion. I doubt this, personally.

Thread containing video and other news developments, including information on CSTO's emergency meeting and a protest outside the Armenian parliament demanding Pashinyan's resignation. The U.S., France, and other countries have weighed in as well.

https://twitter.com/301arm/status/1569728511438372872

Iran has mobilized forces to the Azeri border.

https://twitter.com/301arm/status/1569678831749046273

My speculation: the Azeris are moving now because they sense Russia is weak. I haven't been following the Ukraine war (for various reasons), but with the Russians in full retreat on multiple fronts, the Azeris likely surmise that Russia is unwilling/unable to defend Armenia.

Armenia cannot hold out on its own. They tried in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and failed. Azerbaijan not only has a far larger military (their military budget is larger than Armenia's total state budget), they are backed to the hilt by Turkey. Without Russia, Armenia loses.

I'll likely do a background thread on the deeper causes of the conflict, but Turkey's own domestic woes are likely another reason for the invasion. Erdogan needs something to distract the population from the fact that their economy is down the toilet and past the sewers.

As for Russia, based on their performance in Ukraine so far, this is the worst possible time for them to have to deal with another conflict. And Armenia is a country they are obligated to defend via CSTO. They're going to do everything they can to try and avoid war.

This is the choice Russia faces if war can't be avoided:

- Commit troops to defend Armenia, leaving fewer to fight Ukraine.
- Leave Armenia to twist in the wind, defaulting on their CSTO obligations and signaling to the rest of the world that Russia can't be trusted as an ally.

Armenia's only other likely ally is Iran, and Iran is a fair-weather friend at best. Iran also has many internal problems as well as a large Azeri minority that may align itself with Azerbaijan (during the 2020 war, there were anti-Armenian protests in Azeri parts of Iran).

The $64,000 question: was this conflict instigated by NATO/the U.S. to weaken Russia's ability to wage war in Ukraine?

Possibly. We don't have definitive evidence of this. It's certainly something they'd DO, but the fact that the U.S. is condemning Azerbaijan casts doubt IMO.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is one of the few conflicts that the U.S. is officially neutral on. We have good relations with both countries, Azerbaijan being an oil-producing state who sent troops to the Iraq War and Armenia having outsized cultural influence via its diaspora.

The conflict also doesn't fit into left-wing or right-wing prejudices. It's not a religious war, despite Azeris being Muslim (but in practice, most are secular) and Armenians being Christian. Armenia is allied with evil RUSSIA, but it's a democracy; Azerbaijan is a dictatorship.

That's the situation for now. May write more if there's interest and if things get worse (I assume things will get worse).