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András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Sep 15 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
The Russian government is administering an across-the-board cut of 10% in budgetary expenses. This is in reaction to a larger-than-expected decline of fiscal revenues over the summer (a deficit of close to 1.5 trillion rubles). This is likely only the first step.
This exactly the kind of realization that long-term costs are increasingly unavoidable, which I wrote about back in July, and which I suspect will lead to (at least) a scramble for resources. Instead of tapping the sign, let me re-up this piece.

noyardstick.com/?p=958
The caveat is that expenditures such as pensions are not cut *yet* (and of course neither are war expenses). However, the cuts affect key development priorities, scrapping which will deepen the ongoing recession.

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More from @NoYardstick

András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 6
A couple of recent examples of problems with salary payment in Russia, which were important enough to make the news.🧵
The State Traffic Air Management Corporation may not have funds to pay salaries in late September, due in part to the double whammy that the COVID crisis and sanctions delivered to it.
moscowtimes.eu/2022/08/30/gos…
CNII Electronica, a Rostec contractor, which plays a key role in the development strategy of the Russian radio-electronic industry (ostensibly itself a priority due to sanctions), where employees turned to Putin himself due to wage arrears.
cnews.ru/news/top/2022-…
Read 26 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 12
I don’t have much desire to insert myself into the “visa ban” discourse, bc I think time would be better spent discussing energy policy, ramping up weapons shipments to Ukraine, and further sanctions. But it looks like the discussion will impact policy, so here’s my two cents. 🧵
As far as I can see, many people who argue for a visa ban make either a moral or a practical argument, along the lines of “Russians shouldn’t be able to enjoy themselves in Europe while their government wages war in Ukraine”, and/or “They should stay home to topple the regime”.
These may sound morally right and certainly satisfying to many, but how they would be translated into policy makes little practical sense to me.
Read 30 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 11
It's not just the size of the deficit but how it is growing: in July domestic VAT revenues dropped by 41% y-o-y, CIT by 32%, while expenses grew by 25% y-o-y (and 21% overall in January-July).
Given the considerable upfront costs of long-term structural adjustments (export infrastructure reorientation, import substitution, etc.), this is not sustainable. Ministries have asked the government for 5 trillion rubles extra expenses per year.
Many still haven't accepted the need of long-term readjustments, the permanent loss of EU markets, etc. & hope for a resolution allowing a return to the status quo ante. It's getting increasingly clear that this is an illusion. The govt will have to make very painful choices soon
Read 5 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jul 23
So you're shocked and appalled by Viktor Orban's speech today, in which he talked about Hungarians not being "mixed-race" and not wanting to become that?

I understand the revulsion, but not the shock. Orban has been saying such things for years. A long 🧵
2015 October 30, at a conference, he speaks about organized ethnic replacement.
2016 March 15, in a speech Orban speaks about organized resettlement of foreigners to "reconfigure the ethnic foundations" of Europe.
Read 40 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 7
In this somewhat rambling THREAD 🧵 on some recent developments in the Western discussion on Russia’s war against Ukraine, I would like to focus on our incapacity to keep being focused on the tasks at hand and not to be distracted by our own impatience and fantasies.
As Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, a degree of exhaustion is capturing Western countries and organizations providing support to Ukraine. This is inevitable.
This exhaustion comes amidst a looming global food crisis caused by Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports and its attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural land, and often poor understanding of how and when sanctions implemented against Russia will work.
Read 29 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 25
It's really bleak to think that we have to resort to the simplest arguments, but lawmakers resisting gun control legislation after all these years sd ask themselves how long before someone who sdn't own a gun turns a semi-automatic rifle against their loved ones or against them.
I want to be very clear that I'm not suggesting someone should - on the contrary. Political violence is unacceptable. But we all need to understand that no one is safe from the lunatics & terrorists that a handful of senators don't want to do anything about. Not even they are.
I immigrated to the United States, bought property and pay taxes here. Despite all its flaws, I have come to appreciate many things about the country. But the abject failure of the country's political institutions to resolve pressing and obvious problems is very, very worrying.
Read 6 tweets

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