Thread by @ALevermann

That is how the dynamics of a monsoon #TippingPoint relates to the enhanced variability of monsoon rainfall and thereby the #PakistanFloods. A brief thread:

https://twitter.com/PIK_Climate/status/1570673813930782720

This is the last paragraph of the @nytimes article above and the related papers:
Anders Levermann, a physicist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, has proposed one explanation. The South Asian monsoon begins each spring when the land warms and...

..draws in moisture-rich air from the Indian Ocean. When this air hits the mountains and cools, its cargo of vapor condenses into rain and, in the process, releases heat. The heat draws even more air toward the land from the sea, which keeps the monsoon going...

..On a warmer planet, there is more moisture in this system, which means the rains are amplified. But if anything blocks this inflow, such as an atmospheric disturbance or heavy air pollution, then its weakening effects on the monsoon might also be amplified, Dr. Levermann said..

..
“That’s the bad thing about climate change,” he said. “It’s not just an increase in something or a decrease in something. It’s an increase in variability.”..

...and here are the papers on monsoon variability:
earth-syst-dynam.net/4/287/2013/esd…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gr…
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL…
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/36…

..and on the self-amplifying moisture-advection feedback that gives monsoon systems a potential #TippingPoint

pnas.org/content/106/49…

earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/
clim-past.net/8/535/2012/cp-…