Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

wartranslated.com/day-205-septem…

🔥 Battlefield update:
Day 205, September 16. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast.

🔥 Kharkiv:
no significant changes.

🔥 Kupiansk:
Most interesting area is Kupiansk-Svatove.

🇷🇺 forces from Borova to Lyman are left as screen, to build 2nd (and 3rd) line of defenses at Troitske-Pokrovske-Nyzhnia Duvanka-Svatove-Kreminna.

Breaking that, would allow 🇺🇦 to control half of Luhansk district and immediately reach Rubizhne/Schastia/Luhasnk/Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk cities.

🇺🇦 forces still haven’t got past Lyman and Borove, where 3 🇷🇺 BTGs are defening on complicated terrain (forests, rails, roads, irrigation structures).
There are 3 scenarios:
1) 🇺🇦 breaks first line, has enough potential to advance on Svatove, wins that, and advances on Kreminna.

This opens up all north of LNR, allows to cut off DNR. 🇷🇺 is very afraid of this, trying to set up all possible defenses.
2) 🇺🇦 gets stuck in Lyman, stuck or lose footholds near Kupiansk and Borova, doesn’t have enough forces to continue. It will take time to accumulate reserves.

3) 🇺🇦 pressures more on south – at Spirne, Verkhnokamianka, Bilohorivka. If 🇺🇦 captures Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk from south, it totally bypasses newly created defensive line.

🔥 Bakhmut:
It’s the only part of front-line, where 🇷🇺 is attacking in some 20-30km wide zone.

🇺🇦 is doing active defense, and wearing out 🇷🇺 forces from Bakhmut to Marinka.

🔥 Zaporozhye:
Significant amount of 🇮🇷 Iranian UAVs concentrated in Zaporozhye direction, dozens of uses confirmed (denied by 🇮🇷 MoD). UAVs attacking stationary targets during daylight.

Waiting for reaction of 🇮🇱 Israel. Question – what could 🇮🇷 receive in return.

🔥 Kherson:
Building with 🇷🇺 occupation authorities hit, 4 killed. Recon is simple, most highest-ranking officials always take most expensive buildings.

Attack on military base/command post 4 days ago reported to have 180 🇷🇺 solders killed. 🇺🇦 keeps advancing slowly, 🇷🇺 attempting desperate measures in supplying their forces – even helicopter supplies.

🔥 Kryvyi Rih:
another attack on water reservoir, 🇷🇺 attempting to wash away any pontoon bridges, to complicate 🇺🇦 foothold across Ingulets river. Water takes about day to reach. This creates lack of drinkable water, another war crime.

🔥 SCO meeting in Samarkand:

🇧🇾 Belarus upgraded 🇨🇳 China status to “Strategic partner”, which even 🇷🇺 doesn’t have.
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan got security guarantees from 🇨🇳, and is leaving CSTO.
🇷🇺 losing it’s influence in central Asia, being replaced by 🇨🇳 and 🇹🇷 Turkey

🔥 CSTO:
Seems dead, conflict also between members 🇰🇬Kyrgyzya and 🇹🇯 Tajikistan. Clans have grown in 🇦🇲 Armenia, that want to use 🇷🇺 money, instead of negotiating with neighbors.

🔥 Europe:
Possibly 🇪🇺 will not allow to destroy Putin completely, to use him against 🇨🇳China.

However 🇪🇺 is getting smarter – 🇩🇪 nationalized 🇷🇺 owned energy company working, that was largest source for corrupting 🇩🇪 politicians. Hopefully those processes will happen faster, than somebody decides to allow Putin to survive.

🔥 Izium:
Over 440 graves found so far, including children and tortured solders. It’s not understandable how West can even consider negotiations or perspective to “save face”.

🔥 Russian army:

Putin said that “not all army is involved”, yet units from Kuril islands are in 🇺🇦 and Prigozhin is recruiting criminals for Wagner.

Wagner is mostly sent to Donetsk front-line (Bakhmut, Spirne, Lyman), in attempts to reach Donetsk district borders, so that war could have political end from 🇷🇺 perspective.

Two Kadyrov regiments are gathered from retired VDV members with 🇷🇺 nationality, and supposedly already in 🇺🇦.