Thread by @MikeBlack114

I've finally snapped, here's my rundown of the timeline associated with the Great 2027 Taiwan Invasion Collective Delusion currently occurring within the entire USG, apparently

Before I start, to be clear, I don't doubt that there is a desire to reunify Taiwan, by force if necessary, within the CCP leadership, nor do I doubt they will likely possess a capability to do so at acceptable risk somewhere between 2030-2035, based on current trends

While certainly black swan events are possible and I don't claim the ability to predict the future, given the risk averse nature of the CCP and that the PLA is still subject to the same laws of physics and development of human experience as the rest of us...

...it seems unlikely that they will be able to conduct the operation at an acceptable level of risk prior to 2030 or so (I've said plenty about that already)

Certainly their actions to date do not show chasing a 2027 goal for having the capability

Hence my extreme skepticism

With that out of the way, let's begin

Xi gives a couple speeches + party publishes some documents in late 2020/early 2021 (more on that later)

At the time CDRUSINDOPACOM ADM Phil Davidson kicks it off on 9 Mar 21

From: news.usni.org/2021/03/09/dav…

Notable: zero sourcing, doesn't even reference a speech, just vague hand-waving about how the CCP is bad (they are!) and also gonna invade by 2027 for some weird reason

Also this little bit which might explain why Camp Smith would've had a reason to push some alternative facts

Mark Milley picks up the baton on 23 June 2021

from: news.usni.org/2021/06/23/mil…

Notable: walks back some of the wilder speculation about intentions, also cites as evidence the aforementioned speeches and party documents (again, more on those later), doesn't provide additional evidence

I know my friend and yours ADM Richard fired off some wild takes in testimony somewhere in there, but I can't find a reference for those. What I can find is his testimony from earlier this year (defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/…)

(editorial comment: thank you to that article for reminding me that a bunch of hack GS-14s and Lt Cols in Omaha are ~rewriting deterrence~ because they think they know better than giants like Schelling)

dEtErReNcE aNd AsSuRaNcE gap my ass

The month after that we get this take from the Taiwan MND, supposedly, but as you'll see as best as I can tell there is pretty thin sourcing on this (taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…)

The driver for this seems to be "2027 as a goal for ~something~", and to be fair the MND wording is actually quite a bit more limited than the headline, and certainly more reserved than the USG freakout: "might by then be able to act more aggressively toward Taiwan"

The PLA is acting more aggressively towards Taiwan *today* relative to 12 months ago, of course they'll be more capable by 2027, they'll be more capable by 2023, that isn't news

Huge gap between that and "they're totally gonna invade by 2027" though

Interestingly from May, we also got this testimony from current CDRUSINDOPACOM ADM Aquilino, which is notable for what it most definitely does not say (from docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP…)

"Complete most elements of military modernization by 2027" is a statement I would mostly agree with based on the available evidence (quibble on what "most" consists of relative to how they define their still valid 2035 goal), but overall reasonable...and doesn't mention Taiwan

Second to last, we get USD(P) Kahl with this earlier this month (source defense.gov/News/News-Stor…)

The absolutely wild thing for me is the thrust of this article is actually pretty deescalatory/tamping down speculation..."Xi hasn't sped up timelines," "we need to watch out for aggression against our routine ops," "no indication of invasion intentions"

BUT THEN IT JUST INCLUDES AS ALMOST A PARENTHETICAL "oh yeah also he's totally gonna have the capability to invade by 2027, this is established fact" WITHOUT ANY SOURCING

And finally we have the DD/CIA a couple days ago repeating the party line of "invasion capability by 2027," with no sourcing. Incidentally I can't find a source for that because google is overwhelmed by content farm links pushing that story so I can't find the original CNN one

a phenomenon which should but won't raise questions within the USG as to the wisdom of pushing this insane messaging strategy that exists in a twilight zone of not having any evidence but apparently not requiring any either

decent amount of the content farm links in question were also very clearly Moscow and Beijing in origin (and messaging US as the aggressor pushing war for no reason), so y'know, just knocking it out of the park on that one USG given the COMPLETE LACK OF EVIDENCE for the claims

So what did Xi/CCP leadership/Beijing actually say? Well (from jamestown.org/program/chinas…):

Part 2

This is another good piece, quoting 3 folks who know what the hell they are talking about (unlike, apparently, everyone at Camp Smith and half of the rest of the USG), Unsurprisingly got zero attention: ft.com/content/01eb91…

Not going to link the many, many tweets and links I've put out there on why nothing we've seen relative to their certainly growing capacity is on a timeline to be ready to go by 2027 (certainly not at a level of acceptable risk to notably YOLO Xi and company, oh wait)

But if someone wants them hit me up and if I'm feeling lazy I'll go dig them up. Suffice to say while they are certainly pursuing a variety of unique and nasty capes, they also can't just magic an institutionally experienced force out of next to nothing in the space of 5 years

In conclusion, as best I can tell this all started from Phil Davidson and the Camp Smith gang pulling one of these:

And then the rest of the USG inexplicably going along with it for reason I haven't quite sussed out

this is a great summary of the entire stupid discourse (from that FT piece I linked)