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Sep 18 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
A finding I saw at #APSA2022 that I can’t stop thinking about: in a paper on congress. primaries. @kbawn @stp_polisci and Zaller show that local newspapers often do not provide any info for voters to choose a preferred candidate. 1/
For example, 25 percent of all papers provide zero stories with substantive information to help voters differentiate the candidates. That falls to 14 percent for the runoff (so better, but still bad). (The authors break this down by kinds of relevant information, etc.) 2/
Why am I thinking about this? One proposal for better primaries is instant-runoff w/ RCV. This finding suggests (a) voters don’t have enough information to make any choices, let alone rank them all and (b) a non-instant runoff improves this a meaningfully. 3/3

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More from @ProfHansNoel

Hans Noel Profile picture
Oct 23, 2021
RIP Anthony Downs.

🧵

Many political scientists don't appreciate how rich "An Economic Theory of Democracy" is. The basic unidimensional spatial model amounts to about 1% of the book. In the chapters before it is introduced, Downs outlines a more general electoral model. 1/
He then presents the standard spatial model for about three pages before questioning its assumptions. The remainder of the book is about political information and how the space is understood by voters. 2/
Much that is presented in these more interesting parts of the book is wrong or incomplete. Certainly now out of date. But he laid the groundwork for a lot of important ideas that were later developed. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Hans Noel Profile picture
May 3, 2021
The opposition to DC Statehood — and especially the calls for retrocession to Maryland — seem to undermine any rationale for the idea of sovereign states in the first place. 🧵1/
Federalism implies allegiance to your state AND to the country. This is the basis for "equal" Senate representation. If your interests as a citizen are tied to your state, then maybe you shouldn’t be undervalued just because there are fewer of you.
2/
vox.com/2018/10/13/179…
I think there are better ways to manage the balance between state and national representation, but that’s the logic. And it depends on people having a sense of identity with their state. (Even if that identity is declining, as in @dhopkins1776’s book.) 3/

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…
Read 6 tweets
Hans Noel Profile picture
Apr 28, 2021
The thing about James Carville’s faculty lounge comment is he’s not trying to provide a fair analysis of politics. He is doing politics. And to the extent that he’s praising Biden for also doing politics, he’s right! (although I don’t think even Carville gets it.) 🧵1/
The fact that Carville used “faculty lounge” as a synecdoche* for the nuanced conceptualization** academics traffic in is a red herring. Carville argues that Biden succeeds because he doesn’t talk like that. True, as far as that goes. 2/

(*see what I did there?)
(**again!)
But the subtext*** could be that Democrats shouldn’t talk about race at all. @seanilling cuts right through to that, so we know that Carville’s phrasing was effective at communicating what he wants to say, even if in fact there is no lounge for faculty. 3/

(***I can’t stop!)
Read 14 tweets
Hans Noel Profile picture
Feb 22, 2021
I think this thoughtful op-ed from @NickTroiano has a lot of smart stuff. But it’s very unsatisfying. I think this passage gets to the crux of the problem with so much of the way we think about party reform. 1/

thehill.com/opinion/campai…
Electoral politics is not “an industry” like any other. And it makes little sense to talk about parties in terms of “market share.” A simple analogy helps to show why:

2/
In your grocery store cereal aisle, you find almost limitless choices. The breakfast cereal industry won’t leave you with only two choices. You get corn flakes. I get shredded wheat. Someone else gets the artisanal brand. We each get to take them home and eat what we bought.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Hans Noel Profile picture
Mar 3, 2020
THREAD:
Everyone asking “is the Party Deciding?” OT1H, it sure looks like party leaders are coordinating to help Biden. OTOH, weren’t they supposed to do that in the invisible primary? And anyway, shouldn’t we wait till people vote?

We’re not Mayor Pete! This isn’t Iowa! 1/10
Meanwhile, however, I think it’s safe to say that the book is relevant. Here’s my view… 2/10
The Party Decides is ultimately about how to think about parties in nominations. Instead of looking at nominations from the POV of candidates competing for votes, we looked from the POV of the party, and the incentives of activists, leaders and long-standing members. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Hans Noel Profile picture
Feb 28, 2019
Kudos to @KevinMKruse for including political scientists in his rundown of experts disputing @DineshDSouza’s silly claim that there has not been a realignment on racial issues in American political parties. 1/x
Important b/c D’Souza not only mangles the history. He has a fals view of what a political party is. Parties, especially in the U.S., are coalitions -- meaning they bring together people who disagree, but who choose to set aside those disagreements. 2/x
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…
Managing those disagreements can be hard, but it’s what parties do. 3/x
faculty.georgetown.edu/hcn4/Downloads…
Read 10 tweets

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