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Sep 20 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Vessels that transport energy may be the hottest commodity this winter ๐Ÿšข

๐Ÿ“ˆ Oil and LNG shipping costs are surging amid fears that there will soon be a shortage of vessels
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe is hoarding ships, leaving fewer vessels for Asia

By @MessageAnnKoh

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ’ฐ There are very few LNG ships available for hire through the winter, and only for short voyages, said @OKalleklev, CEO of shipowner Flex LNG

๐Ÿ‘‹ Shipowners have booked out their fleet, he said
"Some of the hottest hot cakes this winter are ships able to ferry oil and gas"

(If anyone from the #TankerGang wants to talk, my DMs are open)
Meanwhile, traders are filling up ships at sea with natural gas and petroleum fuels, tying up more vessels to ensure supplies in the tight market
๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
๐Ÿšจ RED HOT LNG SHIPPING MARKET ๐Ÿšจ

๐Ÿ“ˆ LNG freight spot rate in Asia just surged 25% amid fears of a ship shortage this winter

๐Ÿšข ๐Ÿšข ๐Ÿšข

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 17
France may halt power exports to Italy for two years โ€” the latest sign of energy protectionism
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท โšก๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น

โ˜ข๏ธ France is considering the cuts as part of an energy saving plan after nuclear plant closures
๐Ÿค French power accounts for 5% of Italy consumption

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy is the biggest net importer of power in the EU, usually getting most from France

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France is traditionally the top net exporter, but itโ€™s position has dramatically changed from a year ago as the nation struggles with extended outages at its nuclear power fleet
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy is already working on plans to compensate for any cut in supply after receiving a written notification about the possible halt from EDF, said the ministry of energy transition

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ The shortages are exacerbating an energy crunch after Russia cut its gas supply to Europe
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 16
Japan moves to buy MORE LNG for winter to avoid an energy shortage
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐Ÿšข

โšก๏ธ Government will conduct a power auction with the intent that the winning utility use proceeds to buy LNG
๐Ÿ’ช Current plan is for ~4 LNG cargoes, but government could do more

nikkei.com/article/DGKKZOโ€ฆ
Competition between Europe and Asia is intensify for LNG this winter

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe is quickly starting new floating LNG import terminals, but the region will need to take supply away from Asia

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan (the worldโ€™s biggest LNG importer so far this year) doesnโ€™t want to be short
Japanese utilities do fear that Russia will cut off supply from the Sakhalin-2 plant, Nikkei says

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต That may be another reason why Japanโ€™s government wants to stock up on LNG
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 16
The world is hurtling toward $1 trillion in weather-disaster damages by end of 2023 ๐ŸŒŽ๐Ÿ’ฐ

๐ŸŒก๏ธ La Nina (an atmospheric phenomenon) has been driving the chaos since 2020
โš ๏ธ We now face something thatโ€™s only happened twice since 1950 โ€“ 3 years of La Nina

bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-โ€ฆ
What is La Nina? ๐Ÿค”

La Nina occurs when the surface of the Pacific Ocean along the equator cools and the above atmosphere above reacts

It sets off a chain reaction of weather patterns which can bring drought in some places, even as it produces flooding and hurricanes elsewhere
๐Ÿ‘‰ Odds that the cooling of the equatorial Pacific will linger through October have risen to 97%

๐ŸŽฒ The chances of La Nina sticking around through January are 80%.

๐Ÿ“… The last string of three La Ninas was 1998-2001, and before that 1973-1976
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 15
Looming US railway strikes could threaten global food security ๐Ÿš‚๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

โš ๏ธ Rail officials are no longer shipping ammonia, an important component of ~75% of all fertilizer
๐Ÿง‘โ€๐ŸŒพFertilizer is already scarce, and any supply disruption will curb future harvests

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
US natural gas prices are already surging ahead of the potential strikes
๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Why?

A US railroad strike would drastically reduce supplies of coal, which depends heavily on train transport, forcing power generators to rely more on natural gas as fuel

๐ŸŒฝ The premium for corn loaded by barge to be delivered to the Gulf Coast jumped nearly 5% on speculation that more will move by boat should rail cars come to a standstill

๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒฝ ITS CORN ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒฝ

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 14
Germany is considering to nationalize Uniper to prevent a collapse of the energy system ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ’ฐ

๐Ÿ™Œ Government may boost stake in Uniper above 50% and is open to nationalizing it
๐Ÿ’ธ Uniper (Germany's top gas importer) needs help after exhausting state funds

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
UPDATE: Germany is looking at options including a straight equity increase that would result in the government taking a significant majority stake in Uniper, the utility said in a statement, confirming an earlier Bloomberg report ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช

โžก๏ธ No decisions have been made
NEW: Germany is in advanced talks to take overย Uniper, VNG and Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (formerly Gazprom Germania)
๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ’ฐ

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 12
LNG supplier are canceling shipments to long-term customers and selling those cargoes into the more lucrative spot market ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ’ฐ

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Former unit ofย Gazprom is paying a tiny fee to scrap scheduled LNG cargoes to India
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Suppliers also cancel on Pakistan

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
๐Ÿšข SEFE Marketing & Trading (formerly known as Gazprom Marketing & Trading) is canceling promised LNG supply to GAIL by paying a fee of 20% the value of the contractual shipment

๐Ÿ’ฐ The penalty is TINY and equal to roughly 4% the value of current spot gas prices in Europe
SEFE stands for "Securing Energy for Europe." Indeed, that is what they are doing

๐Ÿ’ฐ Spot gas prices are far higher than the value of shipments via long-term contracts, so this practice could become far more popular
Read 6 tweets

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