1/8. Putin’s speech demonstrates that Russia is losing. Given casualties and desertions, Putin wants bodies in occupied Ukraine to defend against Ukrainian counter-offensives. That’s pretty much it.
2/8. It’s not just Russian forces in Ukraine that are in retreat. Putin himself is clearly afraid. He’s done something he plainly didn’t want to do. Announcing mobilization shows he fears his fascist rivals more than he fears the Russian public.
3/8. Russian protests are announced for tonight (this afternoon US time). Maybe they will happen, though it’s very tough. The main reaction will be that men flee the country (happened today) and hide.
4/8. Russian contract soldiers now required to stay indefinitely on the front will be further demoralized. I expect a slow burn of anger about this that will not improve Russia’s fighting capacity.
5/8. The Ukrainians factored all of this in a long time ago. Their reaction has been calm to non-existent. At most noting that this will be hard on a Russian demographic that has suffered a lot already and suggestions that surrendering makes more sense for Russians than fighting.
6/8. Oh and there was the Russian announcement of a social media exercise these next few days in which numbers will be invented to show how much Russian occupation is desired and loved in Ukraine.
7/8. And finally – the fact that Putin’s speech was not held when scheduled and that it had to be recorded suggests disorder and perhaps illness in the Kremlin. I for one interpret Putin’s distress as a symptom of a lost war, but not as some force that will end it.
8/8. The war is over when the Ukrainians win.
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