Thread by @NewStatesman

When Kwasi Kwarteng steps up to the despatch box at around 9:30am, he will set the course for the economy for the next few years. What will he say?

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Kwarteng trained as an economic historian, but he is much more of a historian (and a classicist) than an economist.

Kwarteng is likely to rely on his own analysis of history to guide him at the Treasury, writes @harrytlambert.
newstatesman.com/politics/conse…

@harrytlambert The Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride MP, has told @willydunn that the Treasury is withholding an Office for Budget Responsibility report that would give MPs and financial markets crucial insights into the “mini-Budget”.
newstatesman.com/economy/2022/0…

@harrytlambert @willydunn With all this focus on the fiscal statement, the Bank of England’s decision yesterday to raise interest rates by half a percentage point to 2.25 per cent seems to have gone unnoticed, writes @freddiejh8.

But why are high interest rates bad?
newstatesman.com/business/2022/…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 The tax cuts to be announced today will hand a much greater proportion of income back to those who need it the least, writes @emmahaslett.

But what is trickle-down economics – and why is Truss such a fan?
newstatesman.com/business/econo…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett Today’s fiscal statement will be a debt-fuelled, tax-cutting bonfire, with the benefits primarily accruing to the rich, writes @harrytlambert.
newstatesman.com/politics/morni…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett Our deputy political editor @REWearmouth notes Kwasi Kwarteng's reassurance that the Bank of England's independence will remain.

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1573230326725464071?s=20&t=bmfhW7vI5Jpw3_2_bUWtPQ

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth "There are too many barriers for enterprise. We need a new approach to break them down and that means reforming the supply side of our economy," says Kwarteng.

Follow the latest updates on the mini-Budget from our politics team. 👇
newstatesman.com/politics/2022/…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth "A nervously defensive Kwarteng confirms that the government will lift the cap on bankers' bonuses to attract more bankers to the UK."

But how high have bankers’ bonuses been since the 2008 crash?
newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-d…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth From our deputy political editor, @REWearmouth: "Kwarteng announces the government will crackdown on industrial action."

Read more on the reform here: newstatesman.com/politics/2022/…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth Kwarteng confirms the cut to National Insurance, which will benefit individuals as well as businesses.

What do the public think about tax cuts?

Enthusiasm is growing for higher taxes and spending on public services, and redistribution of wealth.
newstatesman.com/economy/2022/0…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth This is a passionate, assertive speech from Kwarteng, writes @freddiejh8.

But will his big gamble pay off?
newstatesman.com/politics/conse…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth The Truss approach could succeed triumphantly but probably won’t. More worryingly, if she and her Chancellor misjudge the financial markets, it could result in a spectacular failure, writes @DavidGauke.
newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth @DavidGauke A quick round up of tax cuts:

🏘️Stamp duty cut.
👨‍💼National insurance cut.
🍷Wine duty cut.
🏢Corporation tax cut.
🛍️Taxes on shopping for tourists cut.

#MiniBudget

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth @DavidGauke Let's return to the biggest announcement of the day: Kwarteng will scrap the 45p top rate of income tax, replacing it with a 40p rate.

On top of that, the government will also cut the basic rate of income tax to 19p in April 2023.
newstatesman.com/politics/2022/…

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth @DavidGauke A key question is whether Labour calls for a return to a higher top rate of income tax.

Either way, Kwarteng's move is forcing Labour to pick a side.

@harrytlambert @willydunn @freddiejh8 @emmahaslett @REWearmouth @DavidGauke Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, correctly says the NI cut and the corporation tax cut are a mere reversion to the present or to where we were earlier this year.

Read more analysis on the mini-Budget here: newstatesman.com/politics/2022/…