We went to the first Ukrainian checkpoint after Russian-held territory in Zaporizhzhia. All the men we spoke to said they were fleeing mobilisation into the Russian army. A few things:
As of Thursday, men between 18-35 are banned from leaving Russian-held Zaporizhzhia to Ukraine OR to Russia / Crimea. Some still managed to bribe their way out.
Even neutral / pro-Russian people we spoke to by phone inside the occupied territories said they would try to escape mobilisation. Not pro-Russian enough to die, as one person put it.
Zaporizhzhia and Kherson have only been under occupation since this spring. The situation is different to Donetsk and Luhansk. People still have Ukrainian TV and, while internet connections are bad, they can get information from outside the Russian state media universe.
Almost everyone we spoke to estimated (this is obviously very vague) that around 60% of people still in occupied Zap/Kherson are pro-Ukrainian, 20% don't care, 20% are pro-Russian. But again: not pro-Russian enough to die.
Nataliya, a young woman we met at the checkpoint, told us that the men in her village had decided that if the Russians were stupid enough to mobilise them and give them guns, they'd turn them against the occupiers.
Bravado or not, clearly these guys would not be a fighting asset for the Kremlin. You hear stories like this in the liberated territories. In Izyum, we met a psychologist who told us that the "Russian" soldiers at the checkpoint by her house were (cont)
Actually pro-Ukrainian. They were miners from Luhansk who had been called off their shift and sent to become soldiers. They told her that they planned to drop their weapons and run away as soon as they heard the Ukrainians were coming. And they did. 🤷♀️
In occupied Zaporizhzhia now, Nataliya said, the Russian soldiers were violent, drunk and lecherous. She knew a couple of women who had left their husbands for them. But this did not always turn out well for the occupiers.
One Russian soldier, mad with grief after his Ukrainian mistress left him, shot himself in the head outside a greengrocer’s.
If you want to see what the future of climate change looks like, go to Kuwait City and Basra in July. They cities are both oil rich, and 80 miles apart. But in one, there is 24/7 electricity and air conditioning. In the other, people live with constant power cuts.
Living at 52 degrees, with no AC, is hell. Your eyes hurt, you can't sleep. Your kids are exhausted and cranky. It's too hot for them to go to school. You can't really go out and work. Your health is at risk.
This is the future of climate change: a dystopia where the rich survive, stepping between their islands of air conditioning, and the poor suffer in the heat, or are forced to flee.
All that news you're seeing about new weapons coming to Ukraine? They're significant. But they're not the whole story. In Donbas, soldiers described an extremely different picture, one where some units had suffered 50% losses and were constantly running out of ammunition.
Many soldiers just back from the front told us they didn't have shells to fire back at the Russians units constantly bombarding them. They were just crouching in their trenches, taking heavy casualties.
Morale is seriously low, particularly in units that had to retreat from positions they spilled blood to hold because they didn't have enough weapons to fight back.
Last week I went to Transnistria and Chisinau to look at what might come next for Moldova. A few thoughts:
People in Transnistria I spoke to are genuinely afraid that Ukraine is going to attack them. This is the line that is being pushed in the pro-Russian local media: scary ultranationalist Ukrainians, armed by the US, will pour over the border.
Men are afraid they'll be drafted to fight. Some have already left for other regions of Moldova. But there is very little obvious enmity with Chisinau. Every young person I spoke to said they wanted to join Moldova as part of a federation.
Thousands of civilians are pouring out of eastern Ukraine, fearing a Russian assault and atrocities like the ones committed in Bucha. In Bakhmut last week one young woman told me: “I’m not so scared of dying. But I don’t want to be raped.”
She and her mum were fleeing to western Ukraine after having held out throughout this war, and for the last eight years. Their windows were blown out by shelling on the other side of the road. But it was the fear of what occupying Russian soldiers would do that made them leave.
Last week we drove around the east from Dnipro to Bakhmut and Kramatorsk. The roads were rammed with people leaving. Some in clapped out old cars that kept breaking down, some in evacuation buses.
Yesterday night, at a morgue in Kramatorsk, we watched volunteers carry out bodies of civilians killed in the Russian missile strike on the station. Among them was a 12 year old girl in a purple hoodie and white trainers.
She had been waiting for the train when she was killed by flying shrapnel. No one knew where her parents were, or if they had survived. "She was alive when she came," a nurse told us.
Over 1,000 people had gathered to board evacuation trains to the west, fleeing an expected Russian advance. 52 were killed, among them 5 children.
In the woods outside Bucha today we met Maria, 80, who hadn't minded the Russian soldiers so much when they turned up at her house. It was only after they withdrew that she found out they had tied up and executed her neighbours. thetimes.co.uk/article/bodies…
Russian forces retreated from this area in the last few days. They left absolute horror behind. Soldiers told us they'd found mutilated bodies of men, women and teenagers inside a basement of a holiday home. Others that corpses left in the street had been mined.
In the forest, locals told us Russians had been breaking into holiday cottages. Their ration packs were strewn everywhere. Stray dogs were eating from them. Swathes of pine trees were felled by the shelling, homes destroyed.