Thread by @Halla_aho

1/9 There is much speculation on whether and when Russia might use nuclear weapons. This threat should be taken seriously, many say.

Let us think about the risk and what "taking seriously" means.

2/9 The likelihood of Russia using nukes cannot be calculated. Russia has never used them. We do not know the circumstances under which Russia actually would use nukes - until it does.

3/9 One problem is that we do not know the consequences of Russia using nukes. Neither does Russia. Would it lead to a Ukrainian (and Western) capitulation? Or a massive Western conventional retaliation against who knows what targets? Or a nuclear retaliation.

4/9 Whether Russia would use nukes depends (besides other factors) on what the Russians believe the rest of the world will do after that. So far, they have made several miscalculations. Who knows how they see this question?

5/9 Is it possible that the Russians would use nuclear weapons? Certainly, but the follow-up question is: So what?

Even if we assume that the risk exists, what conclusions or policy solutions can we make on that basis? Surrender?

6/9 If Mr Putin sees that nuclear threats and blackmail work, i.e. if he can influence our choices and behavior by threatening us with nuclear weapons, he will continue to play that card.

7/9 What if, at some later time, he invades and annexes territories of Kazakhstan, Georgia, Poland, the Baltic states or Finland and then tells the world Russia will "defend" these new territories with everything it has? The risks would be the same.

8/9 Thus, there is not much else we can do but prepare for the worst, hope for the best and keep doing what is right. Being afraid and being paralyzed by fear are two different things.

9/9 Pacifism should not be just about ending a present war at any cost. It should be about preventing future wars by showing the potential aggressors that aggression does not pay. If it does pay, there is an incentive for it.