A short update on the situation in Italian politics 🇮🇹
The Italians to strike a deal with Russia?
1/n
The Italians to strike a deal with Russia?
1/n
The election result likely allows Giorgia Meloni from Brothers of Italy to form a coalition with Lega Nord (Salvini) and Forza Italia (Berlusconi)
Let's have a look at the views of the coalition
2/n
Let's have a look at the views of the coalition
2/n
Salvini from Lega Nord recently said that the West should "rethink sanctions for Russia" in order to secure energy for this winter and the next..
3/n
3/n
Berlusconi from "Forza Italia" recently said that Russia was pushed into a war with Ukraine by Nato aggressions
4/n
4/n
More than 40% of ALL energy consumption in Italy is natural gas based, making it one of the countries with the biggest reliance on GAS in Europe
5/n
5/n
More than 50% of ALL electricity production in Italy is based on burning natural gas.. This is by far the largest proportion of Nat Gas in electricity production among the big countries in Europe
6/n
6/n
This was the composition of Nat Gas imports in Italy before the whole crisis started.. Almost 40% of the Gas imports stemmed from Russia..
7/n
7/n
It is impossible to replace between 15-20% of the entire energy mix in a matter of months, why Italy will likely be forced into
A) Material rationing
or
B) A gas deal with the Russians
8/n
A) Material rationing
or
B) A gas deal with the Russians
8/n
The European leadership in Bruxelles is well aware of this issue, why they have been busy issuing warnings about repercussions for Italy, if they decide on route B above..
9/n
9/n
Bottom-line?
I would NOT be surprised to see Meloni on a plane to Moscow within a month or two from now
What will the ECB do in such a situation? And what about the EUR?
10/n
I would NOT be surprised to see Meloni on a plane to Moscow within a month or two from now
What will the ECB do in such a situation? And what about the EUR?
10/n
I hosted the great @andrepaltry for a discussion on this exact topic last week at Real Vision
Andrea is really worth a follow in terms of Italian energy politics! Great guy!
realvision.com/shows/the-esse…
Andrea is really worth a follow in terms of Italian energy politics! Great guy!
realvision.com/shows/the-esse…
Italy is yet to do ANY of the needed demand reduction of Gas yet.. Seems like the politicians focused on elections until now..
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