I feel this all needs to be added to the conversation: Germany had long opposed trading Krasikov unless in a very high value swap. This exchange, due to that fact & the timing, should absolutely be treated as a play by Europe to try to stop a Trump presidency by giving Biden ...
... a win ahead of the election. So Europe's evaluation was that it was indeed in their self-interest.
But, their main mistake was releasing Krasikov without any concessions to Chechens, either political prisoners &/or military aid to units in Ukraine (should've been both imo).
I also acknowledge Ukrainians' anger at being excluded from this exchange. There are 2 difficult facts to accept on this matter:
1) Consider who advised on drafting this trade and what it was a secondary version of. It originally centered on Krasikov-Navalny, not such an array.
Simultaneous attacks in Makhachkala and Derbent targeted both non-Islamic religious soft targets and police. One civilian casualty yet reported (although cars were shot at and hijacked), half-size police killed and 10+ wounded at least. Multiple militants have now been killed
Attackers did not try to hide faces, two are already being reported as the sons of a government official.
*That there remains multiple militant threats is exactly what I warned of after the Crocus attack* ridl.io/russia-s-new-r…
Weaponry appears better than what we've seen recently in attacks and seizures, would guess it's sourced from unregulated arms leaving the war zone in the west of the North Caucasus, as has been warned about by experts repeatedly.
I was aghast that this was published, not just because of journalists visiting Chechnya and occupied Ukraine, but because this is a clear regime propaganda piece if you know Kadyrov:
1) The journalists were basically given access to ex-Wagner fighters only, who then provide a "the regime is so much better for us" narrative. What's Kadyrov's main target for recruits? If you guessed ex-Wagner, you'd be correct. So this is an advertisement for him
2) Generally, how Chechnya respects soldiers while Moscow (literally the city) does not is another blatant talking point meant to boost recruitment.
3) To state the obvious, if you are given access by Kadyrov, you are being used by him, not doing journalism
Tl;dr: Seemingly the end of the Batal-Khadzhi Sufi brotherhood, formerly the most significant alternative power-holder in the republic.
Some background first off. Who *are* the Batal-Khadzhi brotherhood ("vird" in Russian)?
- Followers of sheikh Batal-Khadzhi Belkharoev
- Known as the batalkhadzhintsy, the belkharoevtsy, or the batlaky
- Based in Surkhakhi, a little east of Magas
- Qadiriyya school of Sufism
The batlaky have played a complicated role in Ingushetia & the North Caucasus. They've sided with Kadyrov on anti-Salafism policies. They notably protested against the Kadyrov-Yevkurov land swap in 2018. They are very secretive, but have been accused of criminal activities.
What's going on in Dagestan and why are protests threatened for tomorrow?
(Tl;dr: Melikov gradually forfeits his public trust & risks his authority)
Almost all sources will be from @caucasianknot, which has done phenomenal work on the ongoing developments:
Over the summer, Melikov & Dagestan's parliament quietly began preparations to amend the republic's constitution. Even then, the public called for MPs to reject the changes. kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/37866…
The most contentious amendment:
- Dag's head would not be responsible for the republic's territorial integrity
Changes to territorial integrity require public discussion, but there is nothing in the new law to hold Melikov accountable for not doing so. kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/37861…
Akhmed Zakayev, Ichkerian Prime Minister-in-exile & former Foreign Minister to President Aslan Maskhadov, recently gave an interview to RFE/RL's @ekhokavkaza. The focus was Ukraine's recognition of Ichkeria. As usual, translation/summary in this thread! ekhokavkaza.com/a/32095032.html
AZ: This is really an important event in the history of the Chechen people. This is a historic moment. It is possible to say that this is a celebration of justice. Justice triumphed. The Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was recognized in 1997 by 57 countries/govs of the OSCE.
(In January 1997 the OSCE sent dozens of observers to ChRI's presidential elections - ed.) [observers, including Russia's recognized the elections as free and fair - me]. But all these years it has been underlined, that we are unrecognized.