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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Sep 27, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
When the mobilisation in Russia started, I wondered how they would train them all having only one modern training ground in the country?

That's the neat part. They won't

* Rheinmetall AG-built and supplied Mulino training ground which was used for training the army of invasion
PS and yes, Rheinmetall's awkward denial that they "did not supply the simulation technology" is a lie. Of course, you did. And the last shipment I have hard evidence of arrived on November 22, 2019. How do I know it? Well, it is designated in the customs documentation
КАТ. 18.2 ШАЙБЫ ПЛОСКИЕ, СТАЛЬНЫЕ, БЕЗ РЕЗЬБЫ, ПАЗОВ И ПРОТОЧЕК НЕТ, КОМПОНЕНТЫ ИЗ СОСТАВА МНОГОЯРУСНАЯ СКЛАДСКАЯ СИСТЕМА ПО ПЕРЕЧНЮ № 1: ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИИ

HS Code: 7318220009

Shipper: RHEINMETALL DEFENCE ELECTRONICS GMBH

Arrival Date: 2019-11-22
КАТ. 18.2 ИЗДЕЛИЯ БЕЗ РЕЗЬБЫ (ЗАКЛЕПКИ), СТАЛЬНЫЕ, ПАЗОВ И ПРОТОЧЕК НЕТ, КОМПОНЕНТЫ ИЗ СОСТАВА МНОГОЯРУСНАЯ СКЛАДСКАЯ СИСТЕМА ПО ПЕРЕЧНЮ № 1: ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИИ

HS Code: 8308200000

Shipper: RHEINMETALL DEFENCE ELECTRONICS GMBH

Arrival Date: 2019-11-22
КАТ. 18.2 КОНВЕЙЕРЫ РОЛИКОВЫЕ, ОБЛАСТЬ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ - ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИИ, КОМПОНЕНТЫ ИЗ СОСТАВА МНОГОЯРУСНОЙ СКЛАДСКОЙ СИСТЕМЫ ПО ПЕРЕЧНЮ № 1: ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ

HS Code: 8428392000

Shipper: RHEINMETALL DEFENCE ELECTRONICS GMBH

Arrival Date: 2019-11-22
Russian customs data designate the purpose of these shipments:

"for assembling the system of modelling and imitation" (ДЛЯ СБОРКИ СИСТЕМЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИИ)

Receiver - JSC Garnison. The Russian company that was finishing Mulino after Rheinmetall "left" in 2014
NB: I chose just three examples from one single shipment that arrived on November 22, 2019. They are all designated as components for assembling modelling and "imitation" (=simulation) systems in customs declaration. Rheinmetall knew very well what they are shipping and what for
Let me get this straight. In 2011 Rheinmetall AG started building Mulino in strategic partnership with JSC Oboronservis, Russian Ministry of Defence daughter company. In 2014 JSC Oboronservis was renamed to JSC Garnison (they needed to distance from fallen minister Serdyukov)
In 2015 Rheinmetall "left" the Mulino project to the Russian JSC Garnison company. Notice that it is the *same* company that has been participating in this project from the very beginning as Rheinmetall's strategic partner. They just changed the name in 2014
As late as November 2019, Rheinmetall continued to supply JSC Garnison (which was completing Mulino) with components *specifically* designated "for assembling modelling and imitation (=simulation)" systems in customs declarations. They knew what they are shipping and why
In 2020 Mulino was completed. In 2021 they organised their manoeuvres West-2021, preparing the Russian army for invasion of Ukraine. And they're still training the troops (including Wagner mercenaries) there. It's just that one training ground cannot fit all the mobilised
I think Rheinmetall AG must be sued

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 7
Victory has a hundred fathers, defeat is an orphan

Everyone is trying to appropriate the rise of China for their own purposes, like it proves their theory, ideology whatever

No one, however, wants to appropriate the post-Soviets, who, by the way, also made capitalist reforms
What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power

That was almost entirely state's job
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets

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