๐ฅ Battlefield update:
Most battlefield information is from ๐ท๐บ sources, as ๐บ๐ฆ does not comment much of their progress.
๐ฅ Lyman: almost encircled, could be captured in couple of days, reports of Kolodiazi captured. Road to Lyman is under ๐บ๐ฆ fire control. Mobilized are expected to arrive near Svatove on 2nd line of defense, to replenish almost empty existing regiments.
๐ฅ Bakhmut: ๐ท๐บ are getting exhausted, attacks are less in numbers and frequency. ๐บ๐ฆ has done 2 localized counter-attacks per week, pushing back ๐ท๐บ from their freshly gained positions.
๐ฅ Horlivka-Marinka: no significant changes, only shelling, occasional aviation
๐ฅ Vuhledar, Marinka: complaints that ๐ท๐บ are doing bad, some rumors that somebody is retreating
๐ฅ Kherson: ๐บ๐ฆ continues to bomb river crossings, command posts, warehouses using 155mm artillery and HIMARS, depleting ๐ท๐บ of supplies.
๐ฅ Kyiv/Kharkiv: Supposedly ๐ท๐บ attacks any of previous directions, they wouldn't stand any chance again.
๐ท๐บ already lost with 40 elite BTGs near Kyiv, in fact it was due to too much solders, not appropriate for terrain. ๐บ๐ฆ now has much more experience, better equipment, no shortage of ammo, prepared 3-sided traps.
If mobilized troops are sent, they would be destroyed much faster than previously.
๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ท Iran drones:
Many are intercepted, while some manage to reach their targets. It's more about hiding, timing and varying launch sites, than ability to intercept them.
๐ฎ๐ท drones won't become game-changing, as there is not sufficient quantity of them.
๐ฅ Mobilization:
Some mobilized have already arrived near Svatove, to urgently close gaps.
First large wave consisting of 60-90k solders would arrive in 2 weeks, most of that time would be used in transit. Perhaps, if they are lucky, they will train to throw a grenade.
๐ฅ Dagestan: ๐ท๐บ does every stupid thing imaginable, only squared.
To bring Rosguardia from Chechenya to Dagestan, to oppress protests is worst thing possible. Dagestanians already dislikes Chechens, this would probably escalate. However it is possible that Dagestan also gets exempt from mobilization, then other regions would follow.
๐ฅ Weapons:
18x M142 HIMARS is almost doubling existing amount. Additional artillery shells.
Air defense, including 2 new ๐ฉ๐ช IRIS-T are coming. ๐บ๐ฆ already has significantly improved it's air defense. New anti-drone systems in reaction to ๐ฎ๐ท drones.
150 armored vehicles (a brigade) for offensive, due to previous ๐บ๐ฆ success on pickup trucks.
๐ฅ Crimea:
Former ๐บ๐ธ general Ben Hodges predicted ๐บ๐ฆ liberating Crimea within a year. All Sevastopol is reportedly getting mobilized, this is a chance for them to turn against ๐ท๐บ
๐ฅ Nord stream:
๐ท๐บ chose the most expensive way to sabotage it, restoring would cost $10 bn. Possibly ๐ท๐บ would attack ๐บ๐ฆ gas pipelines, cutting off ๐ช๐บ completely, just for revenge.
๐ฅ Isolation:
Unknown if mobilized would mount offensive, or stay in defense, this could be related to overall plan of either attempting attacks, or isolation and defense. Possibly ๐ท๐บ is going for isolation in ๐ฐ๐ต North Korea style, intentionally drafting potential for any rebellions.
๐ฅ Nuclear weapons:
This is informational operation of strategic level, it includes mobilization, fake referenda
and fake threats of nuclear war.
๐ท๐บ would consider targeting either ๐บ๐ฆ offensive group, or weapons supplies/infrastructure, however they have been warned of consequences. Possible target would be Snake island, just
to prove their word.
๐ฅ ๐ง๐พ Belarus:
Rumors of ๐ง๐พ preparing to accept echelons of mobilized solders. ๐บ๐ฆ will not hesitate to use newly acquired HIMARS, they won't even teach border.
๐ฅ Reminder: rebelling ๐ท๐บ units won't get fired at.
End of thread.
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๐ฅ Battlefield update:
๐ฅ Lyman:
conflicting information, according to some sources โ there exists a road, thatโs under ๐บ๐ฆ fire control, other sources say itโs total encirclement.
There are several outcomes โ everyone gets captured, ๐บ๐ฆ gets equipment, part gets destroyed or captured, part manages to break through. ๐ท๐บ had significant defense built up during 3 weeks, and ๐บ๐ฆ was not having easy time.
๐บ๐ฆ keepsย advancing - liberated four more villages, another 2 reported to be under ๐บ๐ฆ control by the Russian sources.
Unclear if the ๐ท๐บ regular army actually had time to retreat. Unconfirmed information from ๐ท๐บ reporting 2 battalions of mobilized & and a โD/LPRโ brigade with regular army leaving Lyman. The supply and retreat routes are under ๐บ๐ฆ fire control.
๐บ๐ฆ reportedly moved to liberate Kreminna & expand from Bilogorivka towards Lysychansk/Severodenetsk. If the ๐บ๐ฆ continues this movement, it will recover a large part of the Lugansk region.
The enemy continues attempts to occupy the Donetsk Oblast and interfere with Ukrainian defensive measures in certain areas.
The Russians are carrying out shelling along the whole frontline and all operational directions, conducting air recon, and cynically striking civilian infrastructure. The threat of missile strikes remains on the whole territory of Ukraine.
Russian sources report combat to the southeast of Yampil'.
The Russians are close to being in an operational encirclement. If Ukraine manages to close this pocket this defeat would be recent Kharkhiv level in magnitude. Kup'yans'k-Vuzlovyi was taken by Ukrainian forces today and they are advancing towards Svatove.
The Russians have managed to create a second defensive line in Svatove.
๐ฅ Mobilized soldiers
There are already mobilized Russian soldiers in Ukraine and some have been killed and captured.
๐ฅ The past day has been mostly stable, but in some areas, Ukrainians advanced, while in others they were pushed by the Russian forces.
The enemy continues attempts to occupy the Donetsk Oblast and interfere with Ukrainian defensive measures in certain areas.
The Russians are carrying out shelling along the whole frontline and all operational directions, conducting air recon, and cynically striking civilian infrastructure. The threat of missile strikes remains on the whole territory of Ukraine.
Today was the first day of the 8th month of the mass Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It is not celebrated with the most joyful of news: the mobilisation was announced, and Putin is moving to escalation, increasing the scale of the conflict by increasing personnel, unable to attract any other countries to the conflict.
The enemy continues attempts to occupy the Donetsk Oblast and interfere with Ukrainian defensive measures in certain areas.