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Roham Alvandi رهام الوندی Profile picture
@DrRohamAlvandi
Sep 29, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
What does the experience of the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution suggest about the 2022 #IranRevolution? A few points in this thread. #MahsaAmini #مهسا_امينى
1) The Shah's regime did not fall overnight. The revolution played out from late 1977 to early 1979. There were many ups and downs and even periods of total calm, punctuated by mass protests. Don't expect the Islamic Republic to fall so quickly.
2) The single most important factor was the crisis of legitimacy that engulfed the Pahlavi monarchy. As I wrote back in June last year, Raisi's sham election was the Islamic Republic's 'Rastakhiz moment.' This was the turning point.
3) The groups that toppled the Shah were a coalition with leadership from outside the country: Khomeini in Paris. Don't discount the potential of exiled leaders like @PahlaviReza in a moment when there might soon be a leadership vacuum in Iran.
4) The role of strikes, especially strikes by Iranian civil servants and oil workers was paramount to crippling the Pahlavi state. This will be crucial if this uprising is to bring down the Islamic Republic.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…
5) The role of the Iranian armed forces will ultimately decide the outcome. With the Shah gone, the army 'melted like snow.' It is an open question if the IRGC will slaughter Iranians for Khamenei's successor, especially if it is his son Mojtaba.
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour…

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More from @DrRohamAlvandi

Roham Alvandi رهام الوندی Profile picture
Jan 3, 2023
1) Mohammad Reza Shah was an Iranian man of his generation. Yet, he was the first Shah to abandon polygamy, to crown the Shahbanou, and to give her a constitutional role. Women could veil or unveil as they wished. Women gained the right to vote in 1963. ...
2) Family planning was introduced in 1967 and abortion was legalised in 1973. The Family Protection Acts of 1967 and 1975 abolished extrajudicial divorce, greatly limited polygamy, and enhanced mothers' rights to custody of their children. These laws were abrogated in 1979.
3) Farrokhra Parsa was the first woman elected to the Majlis in 1963 and the first woman minister in 1968; women entered the Iranian diplomatic service in 1967; Shirin Ebadi became one of the first Iranian women judges in 1969.
Read 6 tweets
Roham Alvandi رهام الوندی Profile picture
Oct 18, 2022
In my piece for @ForeignPolicy, I argue that the 2022 uprising in Iran is a chance for the UK and US to redeem themselves for the 1953 coup. A 🧵 on the spectre of Mosaddeq and our current moment:
#MahsaAmini #IranRevoIution2022 #زن_زندگی_آزادی
foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/18/a-c…
As diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic struggle to make sense of the national uprising that has erupted in Iran over the last four weeks, a debate is raging among them as to how Britain and the United States should respond to these protests.
Those doves who remain committed to negotiations for a nuclear deal with Tehran, despite the brutal suppression of peaceful protesters, argue that the United States and Britain should avoid meddling in Iran’s internal affairs, as they did in 1953.
Read 14 tweets
Roham Alvandi رهام الوندی Profile picture
Oct 9, 2022
Do yourself a favour and go and see 'Rebel Rebel', Soheila Sokhanvari's exhibition at the @BarbicanCentre of stunning portraits of Iranian women who were cultural icons of the Pahlavi era. Her work could not be more timely. #PahlaviStudies
barbican.org.uk/whats-on/2022/…
Forugh Farrokhzad, perhaps the most important modernist poet of her generation, and coincidentally a fellow Tafreshi.
Googoosh (Faegheh Atashin), the queen of Iranian pop music.
Read 6 tweets
Roham Alvandi رهام الوندی Profile picture
Sep 22, 2022
As the uprising in Iran continues, what can we say about this explosion of outrage at the murder of #Mahsa_Amini? Like the death of Mohamed Bouazizi or George Floyd, her murder has touched a raw nerve of anger in Iran with the injustices of the Islamic Republic. A thread:
Firstly, the issue of forced veiling has become the lightening rod of opposition to the Islamic Republic and the burning of the hijab is a symbolic rejection of theocracy and a demand for secular state that does not interfere in the private lives of Iranian women and men.
Secondly, although Mahsa Amini was a Kurdish Iranian, this is not a sectarian issue. The response to her murder has transcended all ethnic and geographic boundaries, with solidarity amongst Iranians from every region in the country. This is a national event.
Read 5 tweets
Roham Alvandi رهام الوندی Profile picture
Jun 18, 2021
1/ This presidential election is the Islamic Republic's 'Rastakhiz' moment. Just as the Shah's creation of a one-party-state in 1975 is seen in retrospect as the high-point of his authoritarianism and a grave mistake, so too will this election come to haunt the Islamic Republic.
2/ The creation of the Rastakhiz Party in 1975 was, bizarrely, an attempt to institutionalise the Shah's rule and create a space for loyal dissent and discussion within the regime. Similarly, the Islamic Republic has drawn the red lines of dissent to preclude any real reform.
3/ While many analysts are saying that this election spells the end of the reform movement in Iran, in reality the possibility of reform died long ago. It died with the chain murders of 1998 and the violent suppression of student protests in 1999 and the Green Movement in 2009.
Read 7 tweets

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