Good Morning! I'd like to say that I was right on the rally yesterday... I called a short term rally for the week... but in this case the market was macro driven by the temporary bailout of pensions by the BoE. Dealer hedging helped, but sentiment was the big driver.
Yesterday showed that CBs want to bend, not break economies to reduce inflation. When something breaks, they will come to fix it. If the BoE did not step in, we would have not seen a rally. Dealer positioning will help market moves, but we are in the throes of macro...
And as I have said numerous times, the macro picture is negative. Throw in the negative gamma profile of individual equities, but positive vanna and charm profile, all moves will be more volatile than typical. Plan for that.
It makes for a tough trading environment. It is too volatile for short gamma flies and condors, but not directional enough for strangles and straddles. Trade planning is needed and taking profits when you can finance a leg of a trade. For example:
Putting on a strangle, and selling one of the legs when it makes the whole trade profitable and getting free money on whipsaw, and not being sad if it never happens. Tough strategy that requires discipline, and is not usually worth the work. The other way to trade...
Is using #volland I buy sell gamma peaks and buy valleys. It requires macro to be stronger to fight your position, basically gives your trade a headstart. In most equities we're at peaks, and BoE aside, macro pressure is down. Therefore, use any ST rallies to short the market.
Although there are still very strong vanna and charm effects for this week, macro is in control. Just be long gamma in your trading, disciplined to take profits instead of trying to hit 5-run HRs, and don't overallocate. This is the way to succeed in this trading environment.

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More from @WizOfOps

Sep 28
Good Morning! Overnight looked pretty wild! Making new lows, spikes in both directions, amd strong volatility. $AAPL was one of those 'death mountain' stocks, so it doesn't surprise me bad news created downside. Then a promise of emergency QE from the BoE helped the market relax.
I do get shocked by disconnect in policy. The US, like the UK, has a completely uncoordinated response to this economic crisis, with monetary tightening and fiscal expansion. Now the BoE was forced to try to control yields as the disconnect manifested instability.
All that is to say, macro forces seem to be in control of markets right now once again. The sovereign debt markets around the world are showing the next cracks, and the fiscal policy is making it worse. However, if we were to find ourselves with a positive news nugget..
Read 5 tweets
Sep 27
This tweet was my most viral tweet, and I talked about deviation from that relationship being scenarios where MMs become "uncomfortable". Why do they become uncomfortable?

In short, this means that their assumptions surrounding skew have been wrong. 1/13
A commonly used term for the "vixing" relationship on Twitter and among quants is "spot-vol covariance". This relationship isn't novel, it isn't something no one knew before I tweeted it. As such, this is the assumption that creates skew. See that formula on the regression? 2/13
Every 1% move in $SPX is associated with a move in the $VIX. That association is reflected in the skew curve. Start with 0% move, then move up 1%, and the covariance of the hour determines the IV at that strike. Work all the way to a 0 bid, voila, you have assumed skew. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Sep 27
Good Morning! Yesterday was a decent sized MOC, negating a comeback rally. One thing to note, the dollar was up about the same as Friday with similar moves across the "scary" assets and the equity drop was muted. That shows to me the vanna rally is about to grow legs.
Looking at premarket, those legs start to stretch a little today.

It is that time again where we are going to hear about #JHEQX a ton again, and I can't stress once again that it is not as significant event as people make it out to be. Here's the thing:
As soon as that trade is put on, MMs put on a synthetic combo at the appropriate delta where they can find liquidity. Short put, long call, same strike. They do a combination of them all up and down the chain in the open market, and at the deltas required for hedging.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 1
The whole options market is now different. Puts and calls in $SPX are sold by customers. While we are in a strongly positive vanna zone (meaning we are in the net sold calls zone), any slight IV positive movement will cause selling. (IV up, delta up). How strong is it? #volland
We only have data over the past year, but it is in the 96th percentile. So even slight movements in IV are going to have an outsized impact. How is that possible? we are seeing ultra-lows in skew. Puts and calls are being sold to death, trying to capture that premium.
Prove it? Here's the percentiles in $VIX. Look at allllll that positive vega exposure in $VIX. There is also a ton of gamma exposure as well. That means as $VVIX goes down, $VIX sellers win. However, it also means if $VVIX takes off, $VIX takes off, creating strong moves.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 1
Good Morning! Yesterday I made a comment that was called out by a reader, and I want to clarify... $VVIX has been this low in most of 2018 and prior, that's true. However, back then $VIX was at 10, and had a hard time even getting to 16... seems like forever ago, right?
So the scope of the difference between spot vol and wing vol is a lot more compelling now than it was, even though the static $VVIX was at these levels. It seems like the short-term inverse correlation has been with $VVIX and $SPX, not $VIX. When dealing with large neg. vanna...
it doesnt take much movement in VIX to create that inverse movement in $SPX. $SPX deltas are extremely sensitive to IV right now, so long vol is the right move to make. When randomly hunting through #volland, there seems to be a disconnect between equities and the indices.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 30
Good Morning! Pre-market looking somber, but at least PCE didn't scare everyone into oblivion! Today we get to hear too much about $JHEQX, but it is rolling today and will roll in such a way to prevent any massive delta disruption.

I have been talking a lot about $VVIX...
which declined again yesterday despite a flat market. Again, the last time $VVIX was this low was right before volmaggedon, so this isn't normal. $VVIX is sort of a proxy for $SPX option skew, but represents the $VIX of $VIX options. It is calculated the same way.
But we have a tool to help with how dealers (inversely customers) are positioned with #volland on $VIX! $VIX options are priced differently due to assumed mean reversion and association with $SPX options, so I wouldn't go too far exploring 2nd order greeks here...
Read 5 tweets

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